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Thursday, October 05, 2023

Waiting on the employment data as the Dow lost 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving down. Most of the major stock indices had small losses today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Tomorrow will be an important session in my opinion. If the market continues to drop, 4200 will be in play for the S&P 500. But if the market can find a way to move higher, there would be a short term bottom in place on the daily charts. I'm not sure which way things will go. We have yet to see the big volume blow out sell off that usually accompanies these moves lower. All we can do now is wait. Gold was off another buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was actually up a point, while GDX rose 3/8. Volume was light. Normally I'd say that the gold shares being higher when gold itself isn't doing anything is a positive. But the precious metals complex is so blown out that I'm not sure that it really means anything. All my GDX October call positions remain in the red. Still waiting for a bounce there to try and cut the losses. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Still short term overbought here but not extremely so. Below the 20 level but above the 200 day moving average. So we'll see what the reaction to the jobs report is and go from there. Still two weeks left in the October option cycle. Would like to try the SPY October calls at some point but if we go up tomorrow it's probably too late. We'll see. Asia and Europe finished higher with the exception of Germany. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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