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Tuesday, October 03, 2023

Sellers continue to dominate as the Dow got clobbered today and fell 430 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. We are through the zero line on the summation index and the market is responding by continuing to fall apart. The big move predicted by the movement in the McClellan oscillator after Fridays close came to fruition today. Oversold, staying that way and that song seems to never end. The NASDAQ led the way lower. We are just thirty S&P points away from the 4200 level which in my view will end the decline. 4200 is where the 200 day moving average resides along with the up trend line that began a year ago. So it is important that the market finds a way to hang on there and I believe that it will. Now it could bounce around there for a few days above and below but it should be the area that puts an end to this downturn. If not, we're in for a whole lot more of trouble. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates continue to rise. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. The fact that the gold shares didn't follow the overall market lower was a plus. But my positions in the GDX October calls are still all losers. Still short term oversold for GDX so maybe we can see some sort of bounce to cut the loss on this trading idea. However that would be the most we can hope for here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed today and was over the 20 level at one point. The short term indicators here have turned back up and are not completely overbought yet. So we could see some more selling in the near term which would fit with getting down to 4200 on the S&P 500. We'll be looking at the SPY October calls once we get there. Keep in mind that we could pass through 4200 and then move back up as buyers enter the picture. Or the market will just keep selling off but I don't believe that will be the case. Asia and Europe were lower as it's a worldwide plunge for now. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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