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Monday, October 02, 2023

Another day another loser as the Dow fell 74 points on what passes these days for average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. October began just like September ended with no buyers in sight. Oversold, staying that way and we are beginning to wonder if this will ever end. Well of course it will at some point we just don't know where that point will be. The NASDAQ did manage to post a gain again so all is not lost for the bulls. It still looks like the S&P will travel down to the 4200 level even though it remains short term oversold. We did get a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within two days so we'll see if that pans out tomorrow. Some economic data due out this week with the employment report on Friday being the key. We remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Gold continues to fall as the futures lost twenty bucks. The US dollar had a strong session and interest rates continue to climb. The XAU fell 4 points and GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. I purchased some more of the GDX October calls this morning at a closer to the money strike price again. So now I have 3 positions in this trade and all are losers. Sometimes you get what you deserve. Gold and the gold shares are in free fall. Despite the extended short term oversold condition here, they continue to collapse. This is one of those times when the technical analysis just isn't working. Yet I continue to believe that it will. The sidelines or short is the place to be regarding the gold complex right now. I'm here waiting for a bounce that is not coming. There is still plenty on time in the October option cycle but even that won't save these trades. At some point this week I should take the losses and move on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. The short term indicators look like they want to turn back up which would imply lower stock prices going forward. The VIX did manage to close below its 200 day moving average. If todays price action in the TRAN and Russell 2000 are any indication of what's to come, we'll be heading down tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe down to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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