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Monday, October 09, 2023

Some upside follow through today as the Dow gained 197 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. My guess is that it will eventually be successful here. The index is in negative territory and that usually doesn't last too long. Geo-political tensions arrived over the weekend in the Middle East. The US stock market seems to have shrugged it off. That's two recent negative market news events that haven't been met with selling. We think the S&P 500 has put in a bottom here. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. Perhaps we'll go back and test the lows but they should hold if that happens. Probably too late for the October SPY calls. Gold found safe haven buying as the futures were up thirty bucks. The US dollar finished flat and the cash bond market was closed today. The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX climbed almost 2/3. Volume was average. Considering the move up in gold the performance of the gold shares was lackluster. I'm still holding on to my GDX October call positions although that may be a mistake. One of them is showing a small profit still but the others are solid losers. Most likely should be out of this trade sometime this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which doesn't fit an up market. Almost mid-range with the short term indicators here as well. I do expect some selling in the stock market at some point this week. Perhaps on Wednesdays or Thursday inflation reports. That could possibly give us a shot at the SPY October calls. We'll see. My attention remains with the GDX call trade for now. Would have liked to see more buying of the gold shares today though. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. The world is on edge right now as it tries to figure out the implications of a Middle East conflict. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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