It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 148 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  I did place an order for the SPY May Puts but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  It looks like the market is not going to wait for me to head lower.  Today possibly was the last good chance to get short.  We'll see what happens as the coming days unfold.  It was a negative end to the month.  I'm hoping that we'll see some beginning of the month money flows tomorrow.  But hope is not a trading strategy.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light.  No trades here for now.  Gold dropped $7 as the US dollar continues higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good here as well.  I'll be remaining patient for a longer term gold share call trade that I'm thinking about.  This idea could be simply wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to get short here but may have missed the last entry point today.  The daily major stock index charts still look bearish to me.  The short term technical indicators are getting oversold though.  I do not want to chase stocks lower here either.  With the Fed announcement on Wednesday, followed by the employment report on Friday, there's plenty to make things get volatile one way or the other.  We did get close to the 15 level on the VIX today and then the selling came in.  That remains a key component of my near term strategy.  I suppose if we travel back down to the 15 level, I'll simply buy some SPY puts and take it from there.  However we may not get back down there this week and the expected decline may have already begun.  The game is never easy.  I will say that if we get a short term oversold signal, I may just go the other way for a short term trade with the calls.  But you can't overstay your welcome on the long side.  Europe and Asia were both higher last night with Japan closed.  Most major foreign markets will be closed tomorrow for May day.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

It was a rather quiet, mixed session as the Dow fell 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was slightly better than the Dow.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the Dow.  The VIX got to 15.25 today and we are at the moment of truth next week for the stock market in my opinion.  If the VIX breaks the 15 level next week and stays there, we could be in for some type of sustained rally.  I don't know if that will happen but I have to be open to the possibility.  I'm still a believer in the bearish side here and I will be buying some SPY May puts on a break below 15 on the VIX.  But I also know that it could be the wrong move.  Hopefully I'll manage the trade better than I have with my other trades lately.  We'll see.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold gained $6 as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Rates dropped today with TNX closing below 3%.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Three weeks to go in the May option cycle.  I don't exactly have a clear cut signal on which way to go here yet.  I did place an order today for the SPY May puts but it wasn't filled.  I placed the order at the price I was willing to pay if the VIX got below 15.  What I don't want to do here is simply blindly follow that idea because this time it just may not work.  I'd rather see more of a better overbought technical situation on the S&P in order to place that trade.  We could it but it would be on Tuesday or Wednesday depending on how the trading week begins.  We'll have the end of the month Monday, with May starting up on Tuesday.  It will be a week that also has the Fed announcement on Wednesday followed by the employment report on Friday.  Along with other economic data along with earnings to boot.  So it will be quite a week to watch and there will be trading opportunities out there.  But which way are we going to go?  I'll be double checking all the charts and indicators over the weekend because I really think that the time is now.  There will be market movement next week.  It is possible that things will stall heading into the Fed announcement and that is something to take into consideration as well.  Plenty to ponder in the next two days.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got some buying today as the Dow gained 238 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  It was a broad rally with the overall market stronger than the Dow.  Is it the beginning of a sustained move higher?  Time will tell but I'm still in the bearish camp.  We did finish off of the highs for the day as the market was up over 300 points during the session.  I'm going to let tomorrow go by and focus on what I need to do next week if the signals come through.  We could easily simply turn back down tomorrow.  What I'd really like to see is a move up over 2700 again on the S&P 500.  That would possibly set up the SPY May put trade.  GE snapped back 1/3 on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold dropped a few bucks as the US dollar continues to rally.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  The gold shares have held up really well here despite a drop in the precious metal.  That is generally a bullish sign.  But I do think that the fundamentals at the moment aren't positive for gold.  Higher interest rates coupled with a rising US dollar are not what you'd like to have if you favor gold.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls though once the indicators get oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market was due for a bounce and we've got it.  Hopefully it will run into next week to set up a trade.  A light volume rise would be the ideal scenario.  Whatever the case, when the VIX hits 15 or less, I'm buying the SPY May puts.  That strategy has worked since the decline in early February.  It could possibly happen tomorrow.  So I'll be keeping an eye on things but I would really like to wait until next week to enter a trade.  Lots of time left in the May option cycle, so time is not a concern.  We'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

A slight bounce today and that was to be expected.  The Dow rose 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as we opened lower and closed higher.  I do think that we'll drift higher from here in the short term and hopefully that will set things up for the SPY May puts for me.  But the market goes where it wants.  The ideal scenario in my mind would be for the VIX to return to 15 and that would be the time to try the puts.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are trying to turn back up but haven't yet.  Perhaps by tomorrow.  GE rolled over and lost 2/3 on good volume.  It did stop at the 50 day moving average.  Gold shed another $8 as the US dollar continued its climb.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm still considering the longer term gold share calls going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Simply waiting to see how the rest of the week turns out at this point.  Hoping for higher prices and the technical indicators could prove to be in my favor for that.  Todays price action does have the look of a hammer or morning star on the daily candlestick charts of the major stock indexes.  So we'll see.  Headline risk seems to have faded into the background for now.  Interest rates did continue higher today but did not have the same negative effect on stocks.  Earnings continue to be solid but there hasn't really been any positive price reaction.  I'll simply continue to monitor the indicators and price action.  Hope fully I'll make the right trading decisions this time around.  Trying to remain patient for now.  Europe and Asia were lower in last nights trading activity.  We'll keep an eye on what happens after the bell.  

The markets got pounded today as the Dow fell 424 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  Well, so much for my indicators pointing towards a short term rally but I still think that is in the cards from here.  No real reason beyond the fear of higher interest rates for todays drop.  I really think that the market is about to roll over now for good.  Maybe not tomorrow or this week but soon.  If by chance we get the VIX back to 15, that would be the spot to try the SPY May puts.  Or it may be too late.  At any rate rallies, if we get them, can be shorted.  I'll be looking to get some May puts on any increase in price because the measuring objective on the patterns is a lot lower from where we are now.  We are short term oversold on the averages and a bounce is due in the next couple of sessions.  I do believe that you will be reward for taking the short side in the coming days.  Today was the warning shot.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  GE has found some life after the earnings but is getting short term overbought.  Gold gained $8 on a flight to safety.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was flat but GDX gained almost 1/3 on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Too late to get the SPY May puts?  I don't think so.  The chart patterns here have the potential for a major drop.  If we break the various necklines of the patterns in the major stock indices, prices will be much lower in a hurry.  It hasn't happened yet but the potential is there.  Could we rally from here back to new all time highs?  Not in the near future in my opinion.  Although the market does what usually everybody thinks it won't do.  We are moving into a seasonally weak time period for stocks as the sell in May crowd will be crowing.  But that doesn't mean it will happen.  One thing to be certain of here is that the tone of the market has changed and what used to work will not work anymore.  The VIX is giving off reliable signals in my mind.  If it gets to the 15 level, you can buy the index puts.  I think that is all you have to remember for now.  You can try and play the snap back rallies but the time frame must be short.  The stronger ideas from here on out will be the ones with negative implications for stock prices.  There is plenty of time in the May option cycle to make money on the short side.  Keep that in mind going forward.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index finished with a loss of 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is stalling here.  The S&P 500 was basically flat, with the small stocks taking the worst of it.  My thinking at this point is that we're going to go higher here in the short term.  I'm basing that on my own indicators.  The usual short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices but look like they want to turn back up.  Hasn't happened yet.  I'm still in the camp of attempting the SPY May puts, perhaps this week.  GE was off a couple cents and the volume was average.  Gold dropped a dozen on the futures as the US dollar continues higher.  The dollar appears to be breaking out to the upside from its recent trading range.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX fell 1/3.  Volume was average.  Perhaps I'll get a chance at the longer term gold share calls in the near future.  However the fundamentals still are negative for gold here in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The chart patterns for most stock indices still have a bearish potential depending on what happens from here.  Plenty of earnings due out this week to move things around.  Plenty of talk about TNX hitting 3% but we had a doji star today on the daily candlestick chart there, so a decline in yields here would be no surprise.  In my mind, a run to 2725 on the S&P 500 would be the set up for the SPY May puts.  Either that or a drop below 15 on the VIX.  Both at the same time would be the ideal scenario.  The market rarely cooperates.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Another downer to end the week as the Dow dropped 202 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were once again 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index sideways.  I'm a believer now that rallies can be shorted.  There are potential bearish chart patterns all the way around and I think that they will be fulfilled.  The weekly candlestick charts for the major stock indices have shooting stars.  The only thing that would negate things in my mind would be a stiff rally next week with a close somewhere near this weeks highs.  It could be that I've missed the chance to get the SPY May puts already.  I'll be mostly hoping for some kind of light volume rally at some point next week to try this idea.  May not happen.  GE sprang to life on its earnings and rose 1/2 on very heavy volume.  We've jumped the 50 day moving average and traded at the $15 level during the session.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar continued its recent ascent.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume.  The gold shares are holding up rather well and that is a positive.  I'm still thinking longer term calls there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two days of decline doesn't mean we're on the cusp of anything bigger but I do not think that we're on the verge of a major rally either.  Perhaps we'll continue with the sideways channel that we're in just to frustrate both sides of the trade.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over.  Any bounce next week should probably be looked at as an opportunity to get short.  Yes I could be wrong but we're also entering the seasonal period of less market strength.  Earnings have been good so far but we haven't seen any rip roaring moves to the upside as we have in the past.  I have to think at this point that the May puts will work.  I just hope that I'm ready to manage whatever trade that I get into better than I have lately.  We'll see.  I'll go over everything again this weekend and be sure that I know exactly what I'd like to try and do next week.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe mostly higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 83 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We are at a spot where things could turn around as the VIX got back to the 15 level.  There are also potential negative chart patterns on numerous indices.  But that's just it, there's potential.  Nothing has actually happened yet.  We could just as easily continue to head higher.  But I'm not a believer in that.  I'm sticking with my now long held position that the long bull market is over.  I'm looking at the SPY May puts and I do want to buy some in the near future.  The market may not wait for me though.  I am going to let tomorrows expiration pass and go from there.  GE gained 1/3 on good volume ahead of the earnings.  We're right at the 50 day moving average and the $14 level.  Tomorrows price action will tell a lot.  Gold fell five bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on lighter volume.  The gold shares have held up pretty good here.  I'm considering the longer term calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is now oversold and due to move up.  The TRAN did not make it through the resistance at 10800.  What I would like to see is the S&P 500 make it back up to the 2725 level and simply puts some puts there.  I'm not sure if the market will cooperate.  With the summation index moving higher the path of least resistance is up for now.  But if we do drift up from here, I'm going to try the May puts.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll close out the week with options expiration tomorrow.

We bounced around today and ended the session down 38 points on the Dow.  Volume remains below average and the advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We remain short term overbought and the positive expiration bias seems to still be in effect.  The TRAN got above resistance at 10800 but then pulled back.  The VIX is back in the zone that recent sell offs have began.  I'm still in favor of the SPY May puts.  Some of the small stock indices have potential head and shoulder tops patterns, while RUT could be putting in a triple top.  But none of that is etched in stone and there's always the possibility that we'll simply march on higher.  But if my overall idea of the bull market being completed, we should see things turn lower here in a short amount of time.  GE lost a dime and the volume was light.  Approaching the 50 day moving average here.  Gold and the US dollar both had slight gains.  The XAU was up a buck and GDX had a slight fractional gain.  Volume was good.  I'm waiting for the technical indicators here to get oversold before attempting a longer term call trade in GDX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report here.  Earnings are coming in and they've been decent so far.  Two days to go in the April option cycle and we'll see where we go after that.  We are still at the risk of any type of headline, positive or negative.  Sellers seem to have gone into hiding but that can change on a dime.  My ideal scenario would be the S&P 500 get to 2725 to attempt the May puts but the market rarely cooperates.  I'll most likely be on the sidelines until next week.  GE has earnings due Friday but I'm not going to try and guess that event.  Europe and Asia were both positive last night.  On to Thursday.  

Moving higher as the Dow gained 213 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were once again better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Most of the major stock indices have now moved above their 50 day moving averages.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  It appears that all signs point to higher prices going forward.  Are we going to new all time highs?  I may have to readjust my negative thesis here but it's too early to tell.  However it looks and feels as if the market wants to go higher.  We are short term overbought though and the VIX got below the 15 level today.  That is my threshold for stopping any rally so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  I did see a lot of bullishness in the media today and that is a contrary indicator.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  Plenty of resistance at the $14 level.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks were leaders today and that is a positive.  The TRAN stalled and still has not gotten trough resistance at 10800.  So there are some crosscurrents.  The S&P hasn't broken above its down trend line at 2725 but the other major averages have gotten above the down trend line resistance.  There is no reason to believe that the S&P 500 won't follow.  RUT is acting well here and is often the leader.  I'm keeping an eye on that because if it does break out to a new all time high, I will have to change my mind about where we are going.  The game is never easy and there is never a clear road map as to where we are going.  The option expiration positive bias does seem to be in place but what happens after this week is anybody's guess.  I am looking at the SPY May puts.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We got a pretty good move higher today as the Dow rose 212 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  We were up over 300 during the session but could not hold it.  We did get above the resistance at around 2675 for the S&P 500 but fell back.  The volume here is lacking and we'll need to see a strong break of the near term resistance to start to believe in higher prices.  The down trend line for the S&P comes in at 2725 and that would be the spot to try the SPY puts if you're so inclined.  GE lost over 1/8 and the volume was average.  Earnings due on Friday.  Gold was flat today but the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on about average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Expiration week is upon us and so far the usual positive bias seems to be in effect.  I've got two ideas in mind right now going forward.  I'm looking at the SPY May puts if we get to the down trend line or reach 15 on the VIX.  We are getting close to 15 on the VIX as we speak.  That is the level that has stopped the rallies that we've seen since the extreme volatility in February.  So if my prognosis that the rally from 2009 is really over, this is the level where volatility should pick up again.  I do believe that this is the case so I will probably attempt a trade here if conditions warrant despite just booking a huge loss.  You have to believe in something and believing in yourself is not a bad way to go.  I'm also looking again at the longer term gold share calls going out to September.  Right now I'm focusing on the GDX index of gold miners.  The timing on this trade will have to wait for an oversold condition and that will probably take some time.  But it is another idea that I'm thinking about pursuing.  Looking back at today the TRAN broke above its 50 day moving average and that's a positive.  The next resistance is at 10800.  Most of the other major stock indices are right at their 50 day moving averages.  You could get more positive on things if we see a high volume break above those levels.  We had a shot today but fell back amid light volume.  Perhaps tomorrow will be different.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments. 

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The market bounced around and finished with a loss of 122 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has been moving up but with no conviction.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  We'll see if that occurs on Monday.  Really low volume lately and that's a sign of no interest.  We do have a chance to break higher here and violate some down trend lines but it hasn't happened yet.  I sold my SPY April calls for a 95% loss.  What more can I say about that.  Horrible trade all the way around.  I had several chances to cut the loss but never took them.  It's back to the drawing board.  GE showed some life and was up 1/3 on average volume.  Gold was up five bucks as the US dollar closed little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares are out performing here and that is a plus.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market continues to frustrate here as after the extreme volatility we've simply plodded around with not direction.  That can happen in the April option cycle and that was the case this time around.  We had some volatility in the beginning of the cycle but not like what we saw in February.  I believe what we're doing now is setting up for the next major leg up or down.  Either we're gonna head up and test the all time highs or we're gonna break the near term support and go lower.  I'm leaning towards the latter scenario.  May has a tendency to bring selling and if we continue to drift here without getting above the sown trend line in the S&P, I think we'll eventually head lower.  We've got options expiration week coming up and the continued risk of a headline event.  I do not anticipate making any trades in the near term.  I may go back and take another look at gold here but it is getting short term overbought.  However I just had one of my biggest losers to date and perhaps a step or two back would be the prudent path at this juncture.  The market won't wait for me to be ready though as the game is unforgiving.  I'll check things on the charts over the weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night although Europe did finish well off the best levels on the day.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The Dow was up 293 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Once again we have challenged the resistance at 2670 on the S&P 500 and once again we were turned away.  A break above there on good volume would leave no resistance all the way up to 2700.  But it just doesn't happen.  The NYA is right at its down trend line from the past two and a half months and can not get through.  The VIX has rolled back down but we aren't seeing the type of gains that constitute a legitimate rally.  On the plus side the TRAN had a good session and perhaps can break above its 50 day moving average.  GE was up about twenty cents on average volume.  Gold fell back over $20 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I will most likely be dumping my SPY April calls tomorrow unless we see some kind of rip roaring 500 point rally.  I doubt that will happen.  This trade will be a big loser regardless.  Six days left in the April option cycle and I don't see myself making another trade in the next week or so.  My guess is that the sideways price action will probably continue.  We're still at the mercy of headline risk, so there is no need to put money to work immediately.  Earnings are coming up and although they're expected to be good there's always the possibility that the market will be more concerned with the guidance going forward.  The game is always a challenge.  I suppose we'll finish out the week tomorrow and take it from there.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trading action.  We'll see how things go on Friday.   

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 218 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher but having a tough time.  The overall market didn't drop as much as the Dow.  I'm not exactly sure exactly where we're going from here but I would not be surprised if we get the common April drift.  That would be simply sideways price action that we've seen for the past couple of weeks continuing.  We've been in a range and even though it has been volatile there hasn't been any trend one way or the other.  All the talk of a double bottom hasn't actually produced one.  We need to get above the declining tops line for a legitimate rally or below the recent support for a decent drop.  GE was back down a few cents and we're still holding the $13 level.  Volume was light.  Gold found a bid and the futures gained $10.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  Perhaps the gold shares are putting in a double bottom.  Perhaps my longer term gold share call idea was the correct one.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY April calls are still big losers and I'll need to take the loss before the close on Friday at the rate things are going.  It is a frustrating trading environment at the moment, with both bull and bear sides treading water.  I'm not sure where this will all lead to be on a technical basis the indicators remain mid-range.  So we are still at the point where it could go either way.  Or do what it has been doing and going nowhere.  It appears that we are at the mercy of the next headline or political statement.  That is the game now and we'll have to adjust accordingly.  It isn't the greatest trading atmosphere but it is what we've got.  Europe was lower and Asia mostly that way as well.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Back and forth as we move on whatever headline comes out or whoever gives a speech.  China had nice things to say last night and the Dow rose 428 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  It hasn't broken out one way or the other.  It is a frustrating market for traders as we cannot get things going either way.  Only eight days left for the April option cycle.  My SPY April calls are still big losers and I'm still waiting for some kind of run up to the 2700 on the S&P 500.  Wishful thinking on my part.  GE was up 1/4 on what now passes for average volume.  Holding on to the $13 level for now.  Earnings due on expiration Friday next week.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The head of FB is speaking to Congress today.  The stock rallied.  That helped move the small stocks higher.  As I said yesterday, todays trading session was important given the final hour collapse on Monday.  Things have held up for now.  But tomorrow could be a completely different story.  No moves can be trusted at this point.  We're still in what I'd call a sideways malaise until proven otherwise.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are back to mid-range.  So once again things could go either way.  I'm not holding my breath one way or the other.  A plus today was that the volume picked up going higher.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  Another threat of tariffs or something else out of Washington will produce another tailspin.  We're at the mercy of the news and that is not the best way to attempt to trade.  We will start to get some earnings next week but it remains to be seen how the market will react.  Some of the small cap indices have moved past their short term down trend lines.  But none of the major averages have yet to do so.  If that would occur, things would turn bullish again.  However it hasn't happened and we'll need to see a high volume breakout for anything to be valid.  Or we turn back down again and look to see if the 200 day moving average continues to hold.  That's where we're at.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

Huge gains early but the market could not hold on.  The Dow gained 46 points today after being up over 400.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but the price action was definitely negative.  Not holding on to the strong positive price action is not a good sign.  It will be interesting to see where we go tomorrow.  The FB CEO will speak to Congress and it could be trouble for the market.  So could Trumps lawyers office just being raided by the FBI.  That seems to be what todays price action is implying.  So we'll see.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Trying to hold onto the $13 level here.  Gold was slightly higher as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Trading range here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My SPY April calls are big losers.  At this point I'm waiting and mostly hoping for a big upside day to sell at a loss.  Perhaps today was it because it looks like the market is about to crack.  Not a lot of economic data or earnings due out so it looks like we'll simply trade off of the headlines this week.  And that could be treacherous either way.  It has the feel of a skittish market about to fall off of a cliff.  If rallies cannot be sustained for more than a couple of days, it's trouble.  Today the rally could not even hold up for an entire session.  So I will be watching tomorrows price action with great concern.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  Let's see where things go on Tuesday. 

The week is over and it was a crazy gonzo time for the stock market.  The Dow traveled back down today and lost 572 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The employment numbers were light but it didn't matter.  The Fed chief gave a speech and it didn't matter.  The market is at the mercy of president Trump and his twitter account.  It is a headline risk environment and that is difficult to get a handle on.  More talk of tariffs on China and the market doesn't know what to expect next.  The stock market hates uncertainty.  And that's where we're at today and for the foreseeable future.  My SPY April calls are dead.  Even if we rally 1000 points next week, it will be a big losing trade.  Now that's not Trumps fault, it's mine.  I'm really going to have to take a step back to reassess what's going on here with my trading.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume is still lighter than lately.  Gold rose $8 as the US dollar dropped on the light employment data.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed and the volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The S&P 500 has still held on here at the 200 day moving average.  But we are getting to the point that there won't be any reason to be a buyer.  If we break here it will be ugly.  There is a better chance now that will happen.  Because if the summation index goes through the zero line, the market will collapse.  It won't just be volatile up and down the way it is now.  It will just move down.  I sincerely hope that doesn't happen but I do think it will at some point in time this year.  Perhaps now is the time.  Only a sharp sustained turnaround from here can save things for the bulls.  But at the rate we're going, that isn't going to happen.  All we need is for China to increase its tariffs over the weekend and Monday morning will be a debacle.  I'm not saying that will happen but it's out there.  Or Trump will say something else that the market doesn't like.  It's not an impossible market to trade but it is seemingly beyond my capability at this point.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled back over to the downside for the major averages and they've got room to move lower.  The market has found some buyers at these levels before but time is running out for some kind of longer than two or three day rally to take effect.  Like I said yesterday when all the media is crowing about a double bottom in the S&P 500 it just ain't gonna happen.  It's the nature of the game.  I'd be wary of what's going to transpire in the market next week.  I could be wrong and often am but this time it actually could be different.  Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of the Hand Seng.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got some follow through to the upside today as the Dow rose 240 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn around and that's a plus.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today though.  Plus the volume here on the rise has been weak.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up and are about mid-range.  So things could go either way here.  the rally could continue or we could roll back over.  Tomorrows jobs data and Fed speech should propel us one way or the other.  My SPY April calls are still big losers.  It will take a massive rally form here to cut the loss to something respectable.  Plenty of time left though.  GE was up another 1/8 or so on light volume.  No news or rumors here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Looks like a trading range for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  It has been quite a week and I expect some fireworks tomorrow as well.  My guess is that anything can happen.  I'm looking at exiting this SPY trade by this Tuesday at the latest.  There is virtually no chance that it will ever get back to being in the money over the next two weeks.  It would take an incredible rally for that to happen and we've already had one of those this week.  The 200 day moving average has held so far for the S&P 500.  The problem is that all the talking heading in the media are saying that we've formed a double bottom in the S&P.  When everybody sees the same thing the market usually will prove them wrong.  So really anything goes from here.  The VIX appears to have rolled over here but that can turn on a dime.  It will be interesting to see how we close out the trading week.  Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll finish out the first week of April tomorrow.

Today was just a crazy session as the Dow had a gap lower and was down over 500 points shortly after the open.  It somehow came all the way back and then some by the close.  It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow gained 230 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  It looked like the market was going to fall off a cliff and it somehow found its footing with an incredible daily rally.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  But the volatility is extreme here and no market moves can be trusted.  The 200 day moving averages have held for now.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up but not with any conviction.  My SPY April calls are still big losers as it would take a sustained rally to get them back to a manageable loss.  There are still over two weeks to go in the April option cycle.  However you cannot expect a straight up rise in price from here.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was lighter.  Gold and the US dollar both finished the day little changed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll be waiting on the employment report on Friday but in this environment it's hard to tell just what might happen tomorrow.  The Fed chair Powell will also be giving a speech on Friday.  So there's still plenty of time this week for some more crazy gyrations.  I think that the VIX can go either way from here but todays price action was encouraging for the bulls.  The small stocks did have a relatively better showing but one day doesn't make a trend.  That said, if the recent drop in tech has ended then the overall atmosphere would be a bit more positive.  However none of that matters if we simply turn back down tomorrow on the major stock indices.  As I've already said before we're at an important point at the 200 day moving average.  It's either going to be a double bottom or the bottom is going to fall out.  Perhaps we'll know by the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 389 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back to sideways.  No reason for the rally as there was no reason for yesterdays decline.  Volatility seems to be the environment that we've moved into for 2018.  The small stocks are laggards here and that isn't a positive sign.  We're still oversold and still trying to hold onto the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500 along with other major stock indices.  It really doesn't feel like things will hold up here.  My SPY April calls are still showing heavy losses and only a substantial rally will change that fact.  A 50% loss at this point would seem like a win.  GE was flat on the session and did come up off of its lows.  Is it worth trying the calls here?  Only if they work.  I'm on the sidelines here.  Gold dropped $11 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume.  The gold shares are potentially forming a trading range here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some economic data due out tomorrow along with the Fed minutes.  We'll see if those are market drivers or not.  I'd expect more fireworks on Friday with the jobs numbers and a speech by the Fed head Powell.  I'm still waiting to see what happens here with the 200 day moving average.  If it hold s here we could see a decent move higher in the near term.  There is no doubt in my mind that if we don't hold up here things will get ugly fast.  Potentially a 1000 point down day or more.  Only because the summation index is getting close to the zero line which would allow the market to fall apart.  I'm hoping for things to hold up here so that I can dump my SPY April calls with less of a loss than I'm already holding.  But the market will go where it wants.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night but not as much as the US on Monday.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

The Dow got crushed today and started off the month of April with a loss of 458 points on average volume.  It was down 750 points during the session.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index has rolled back down.  We could be in for a heavy decline going forward.  The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average and is trying to hold on but it look like it will fail.  No news to account for todays market action and that's a worry too.  The market always knows more than we do and it appears that it knows something that we don't now.  My SPY April calls are dead and I'll have to dump them this week barring a complete reversal.  Still just under three weeks to go in the April option cycle but these options are so far out of the money now that nothing will save them.  GE lost 1/3 on good volume.  Still holding $13 for now.  I'm not looking at doing any trades here.  Gold found a bid on the stock market collapse as the futures gained almost $20.  The US dollar was little changed.  No flight to safety there.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  They did finished off of their highs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There's still a slight chance that the SPY will hold here and produce a double bottom in the near term.  But it certainly doesn't feel like it.  More probable is that we'll get follow through selling tomorrow and much lower prices going forward.  Things could get ugly rather fast.  The summation index will start to approach the zero line and that is the area where the stock market simply falls apart.  Hasn't happened yet but it looks like that is going to be the scenario going forward.  Unless we see a rapid turnaround tomorrow and higher prices to close out the week this thing will be dropping like a rock.  Earnings won't matter because the market will be taking on a life of its own.  Stocks always drop faster than they rise.  So hold on to your hats as tomorrow will be an important session.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe was closed last night.  I'd expect to see a sea of red overseas tonight.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.