Continuing higher as the Dow gained 55 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  Getting short term overbought but the market still has the feel of wanting to go higher.  My open order for the SPY September puts was filled this morning and is already showing a loss.  I'm early on this trade and should have simply canceled this order in the previous two days.  I have at least placed the stop loss order here, so at least I did that right.  The volume was better today and that is another plus for the bulls.  GE was up 1/4 or so on very good volume.  Perhaps GE will finally get things turned around here.  I'm looking out to the January calls here.  Gold was back up a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  I did like the longer term calls here over a month ago but fiddles around with the order too much and missed this move.  It seems that my tactics have not been right over this summer so far.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not sleeping good as of late.  So I'm in the next trade and already not liking it.  It appears we're heading to new all time highs as the small stocks are leading the way here.  The only thing that would change that scenario would be a sell off on the employment report tomorrow.  I don't see that happening.  I will probably be stopped out of the SPY put trade tomorrow on any upside move.  The RUT isn't near its all time high but the NASDAQ is just about there.  It looks like it will be back to the drawing board for me.  In retrospect, waiting until after Labor day to attempt any kind of put trade would have been the best strategy.  I thought about it but did not follow through on that consideration.  The volume on this rally has been light until today.  With the summation index now heading higher, the path of least resistance is up.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  Whatever traders are at their desks will await the unemployment report in the morning.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.  

Moving up today as the Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  This should turn the summation index back up but not decidedly so.  The Dow didn't tell the whole story though as the overall market was much stronger.  Short term down trend lines have been broken to the upside on many indices now.  Are we on our way back to new time highs?  Could be but the volume here is thin and I never trust light volume rallies.  There was a case to be made for a short term rally and we're in one now.  But all the players will be back next week and we'll see what transpires then.  GE fell over 1/8 on average volume.  Here's a stock that nobody wants to own at the moment.  Gold dropped $5 on the futures which wasn't bad considering the rise in the US dollar.  A strong revision to the GDP report helped the dollar along.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still have in my open order for the SPY September puts.  This may not be the right idea as the market still has the feel of wanting to go higher.  However we are getting short term overbought on some of the stock indices and the seasonality still favors the downside.  But I may simply cancel this order and wait until next week as well.  I haven't yet made up my mind.  End of the month tomorrow and that may bring in some volatility.  The employment report on Friday is really the next thing to trade off of.  Again, I'm not exactly sure what to do here but we'll be getting a short term sell signal rather soon if we keep on moving up.  The RUT led the way down and it's now leading the way up.  The down trend line for the S&P 500 moved to the 2450 level and we got through there today.  There's some resistance at 2470 and that is perhaps the level to try the puts now.  That's a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were both up last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

A one day reversal to the upside today as we opened much lower and closed with again.  Back and forth motion lately with no real progress made either way.  The Dow gained 57 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  We opened over 100 points down on some more North Korea angst.  But the market turned around and recovered but the volume remains thin.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY September puts but I am still considering just canceling this trade.  Perhaps waiting until after Labor day is the better strategy.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was light.  I'm still looking at the January calls here.  Gold was up early but dropped back to unchanged on the futures.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The US dollar was a bit higher today.  GDP revision tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market had every reason to sell off today but came back.  That's bullish price activity.  The technical indicators on the S&P 500 remain mid-range though.  The RUT is acting well now though and might be the leader going higher in the near term.  However we did break the longer term uptrend line here going back to the beginning of 2016.  This move higher here could just be a snap back to the broken trend line.  If that is the case we will be rolling over again.  I can make a case for a very short term rally here for the market based on some of my indicators.  But with the lack of traders in this week any move is suspect.  The sidelines are not a bad to be for now.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Another one day reversal to the downside but it was of the mild variety.  The Dow fell 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around and is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  Trying to digest the effects of hurricane Harvey is one of the questions for the market.  Thin volume is another dilemma.  The RUT is acting better here and that could lead the market higher in the near term.  I still have in my open order for the SPY September puts but this trade could be canceled at any time.  I think the market wants to go higher here but without volume any rally would be suspect.  GE was off a couple cents on light volume.  Gold broke above $1300 today and continues to draw interest.  The precious metal futures were up $17 as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy which is a strong positive considering it's the summer.  The breakout for gold and the gold shares is for real and has room to go.  I did miss the ideal entry point for the longer term calls here but I'm considering just jumping on board.  Price and volume are usually a winning combination.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just trying to get the last week of summer out of the way at this point.  We do have the jobs numbers on Friday along with the end of the month on Thursday.  Plus a GDP revision on Wednesday.  So there will be a lot of information but not a lot of traders.  This makes for skewed trading.  The best course of action may just be inaction.  However if things line up just right here there will be a trading signal generated this week.  hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on any overnight developments.  

The day began with a promising start as the Dow was up over 100 points early.  It faded however and finished the day with a gain of 30 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The market action in the final hour this week has been filled with selling, which isn't a positive sign.  That said, it does have the feel of a market that wants to eventually go higher as the advance/declines have been positive lately and do not show the sign of a breakdown happening anytime soon.  I do still have in the open order for the SPY September puts but will have to consider other paths over the weekend.  GE was up about 20 cents on light volume.  Gold was up $4 on the futures as the US dollar sank.  Gold has not rallied as much as you would expect with the weakness of the US dollar for quite some time.  Not sure what that means but it isn't a bullish scenario.  The XAU and GDX were mixed with small moves one way or the other on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was a summer session to be sure with not a lot of volume.  Will it be another week of this?  Probably.  The RUT has broken its accelerated short term downtrend line but there is not a lot of conviction there.  Perhaps this is a snap back on the weekly chart there but that's just a guess at this point.  The S&P 500 has yet to get back to the 2465 level and that is the shorting point for me.  I'd like to see some upside there into Tuesday or Wednesday to try the September puts.  But that's just a wish at this point because the market is a thinly traded void right now.  We do have the employment report to deal with in a week on Friday.  I'd like to take a position ahead of that if possible.  I'll have to double check everything over the weekend as sitting on the sidelines until after Labor day is a possibility as well.  Never easy in the game and the battle is usually with myself.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are about mid-range at the moment.  So you can see that a clear signal is not evident.  Asia was higher and Europe a touch lower in last nights trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still trending down.  We opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal.  I'm still waiting to purchase some SPY September puts but will wait until next week to see if the market cooperates.  My open order is in but we'll need to see a rise in order to get filled.  I am trying to remain patient.  GE lost a few cents and continues it s downward spiral.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume and not a lot of action would describe todays trading.  It's the end of summer and the market is behaving like it.  There's no sense in trying to create things here.  We'll just have to let the market meander for now until we get some direction.  The VIX has calmed down for now.  I'm looking at the beginning of next week to enter the SPY puts if we see some strength between now and then.  If not, I'll have to look for something else.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight with no major activity.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Bouncing around today with a sell off in the final half hour as the Dow fell 87 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm not exactly sure of what to make of todays action but I'm still in the camp for lower prices sooner or later.  I'm also still looking for a move up to 2465 on the S&P 500 to buy the September puts.  Hopefully the market will cooperate.  Light volume here as a lot of the players are still on vacation.  I'll remain patient for now but I do still have in the open order on the SPY.  GE was off 20 cents on average volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term calls here.  Gold gained $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares continue to be firm here but they are short term overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not enough sleep.  I think the next couple of days will be important and I'd keep an eye on the RUT.  If it breaks above its short term down trend line, that would be a positive in the short term for the overall market in my view.  It would also help with setting up the SPY September put trade that I'd like to try.  So I'll be watching that very closely in the next two sessions.  If we keep heading lower here, then the market is weaker than I give it credit for at this time.  We are in a seasonally weak time period.  The market is also thinly traded at the moment and that presents other challenges as well.  Tread carefully but if a signal come up, take it.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tonight. 

Quite a bounce today as the Dow blasted higher by 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but not with the same velocity.  Another positive session could turn the summation index around.  I thought we were just going to hang around this week but that is not the case.  I did place an open order for the SPY September calls but it will take more positive price action to get filled.  The level to watch in my mind is 2465 for the S&P.  Getting short there is the plan for now unless we somehow just burst through there.  I'd really just like to see things move sideways to higher into early next week.  GE was up about 1/8 on average volume.  Gold lost $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still pretty sure that getting the SPY puts for September is the way to go here but I don't want to be early.  The RUT has led the way down and it looks like it is about to break its steep downtrend line to the upside.  If that occurs, we could see prices snap back higher than I currently anticipate.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Plus that fact that my prognosis could be completely wrong and the market simply goes higher from here.  That has happened before in this seasonal time frame despite the bearish tendency.  So as usual the trading game is tough.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up but not decisively.  I'm going to leave my open order out there and adjust it according to how the market behaves going forward.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

A summer doldrums type of day as the Dow rose 29 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The market was mixed with the NASDAQ lower.  The VIX is moving lower and my hope is that it continues on that path for the rest of the week.  I'd still like to purchase some SPY September puts within the next week or so.  Ideally a week from today.  But the market rarely cooperates.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty good.  Still no love for GE.  Gold was up five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3 on average volume.  It doesn't appear that I'll get a chance for the longer term gold share calls.  Just another missed trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Patience will be the key here as we have moved into the September option cycle and it's the last two weeks of summer.  Thin trading will be the norm in my opinion.  I will try and wait for a decent technical signal.  At the moment the major stock averages remain short term oversold and a rise of some sort is due at any time this week.  If we can make it back up to the 2465 level on the S&P, that would be the time to purchase the index puts.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how tomorrow goes but expect more of the same.  Slow trading and light volume barring some kind of unexpected event.   

Lower into the weekend as the Dow fell 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  No need to hold on to stocks ahead of the weekend was the theme for today I guess.  Oversold any way you look at it and some type of bounce is in the cards going forward.  Any rally can be shorted in my humble opinion.  The latest economic data that we've seen has all been pretty good and that is a positive backdrop for the market.  It's the event risk that has come to the forefront now.  Nothing positive out of Washington and the fear factor has risen with the recent terrorist attack.  We are also in a seasonally weak period for equities.  GE was down another twenty cents on average volume.  Ugly daily and weekly charts there.  Gold was off a buck and came off of the highs for the session.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  We did see one day reversals to the downside in there two indices.  I will probably try the longer term gold share calls if we get oversold in the next couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rolling into the September option cycle now.  I'd expect thin trading for the next couple of weeks and then back to full strength after Labor day.  But I could be wrong.  A definite pick up in volatility in the past couple of weeks but we've seen this in August before.  I'm not the only one that has seen the decline in RUT and that worries me.  When everyone has the same take on things it's usually a sign to go the other way.  However I'm sticking with my prognosis for lower prices going forward.  The ideal scenario in my mind for now would be a light volume rise next week in order to purchase the SPY September puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  We aren't close to breaking the longer term uptrend line in the S&P 500, which comes in at the 2350 level.  We should keep in mind however that the RUT led us up and can do the opposite as well.  Plenty of things to consider going forward.  I do wish that things were more clear with a decent trading signal but that isn't the case at this time.  Tread cautiously for now.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trading but nothing drastic.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sharply lower today as the Dow fell 274 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We now have a lower high and a lower low on the S&P 500.  The trend is down.  In hindsight the recent bounce was your chance to get the SPY September puts.  I do not know if we will get another chance.  The RUT is leading the way down and just broke its 200 day moving average.  I suppose I should have done a better job of paying attention but there is no doubt about it now.  Rallies can be shorted.  I'm not sure how low we'll go here.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Nothing positive in this chart.  Gold added another $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a slight rise.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a terror attack in Spain today and that is taking some of the blame for todays rout.  On a technical basis we're short term oversold and getting there medium term.  However the buy signal isn't as strong as the one before the previous bounce.  I'm looking for ways to purchase the SPY September puts.  My hope will be that we simply don't just collapse from here because if that occurs, it will be too late for the puts.  The market goes where it wants though and rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  I will simply have to wait and see here if there's a chance to put on a trade that I'm comfortable with.  We could however get a buy signal tonight on the McClellan oscillator.  We may have a lower price print with a higher oscillator reading.  We'll take a look when the numbers come in later tonight.  The positive expiration bias was absent this time around.  I'll probably let tomorrow pass and go from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how the weeks ends tomorrow.

Another gain today but we did come off of the highs as the Dow rose 25 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We had a nice rally early but it faded as the day wore on.  The Fed minutes came out but really didn't affect things.  There's not much else to trade off of this week.  We'll get the expiration on Friday and that's about it.  We're halfway through August and the big decline of last week has moved into the background.  I'm still considering the SPY September calls.  GE lost a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold caught a bid after the Fed and rose $9.  The US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU jumped 2 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was a bit less than average.  The longer term gold share call trade is still on my radar but I'll need to see a short term oversold reading to make that happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has quieted down for now.  I'm still waiting on some type of short term signal to put on the next trade.  No need to rush things here towards the end of the summer.  I'll try and remain patient.  The breakdown in the RUT remains one of my concerns as that index is usually a leader for the overall market.  But I will wait for a signal before putting on the next trade.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade.  We'll keep a watch on the overnight action.  

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  Waiting for what's next as far as the market goes.  It is expiration week so I would expect some more upside at some point.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY September puts eventually.  Just waiting on some type of signal.  GE dropped about 1/4 on light volume.  Still no love for GE.  Gold lost a dozen on the futures as the US dollar rose again.  The XAU was off over a point and GDX shed 1/4 on light volume.  Feels like the dog days of summer.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has been reigned in for now but could return at any time of course.  It is probably best to simply remain patient here.  There isn't much time left in the August option cycle and plenty of time left in the September one.  So patience here is required.  I'm not going to try and force anything.  Sometimes the end of August gets pretty slow with the final vacations of the summer.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll see how things shape up overnight. 

We got the bounce today as the Dow gained 135 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The SPY August call trade that I had envisioned won't happen.  I was looking for some more downside to put that trade on but the market didn't cooperate.  My next idea will probably be for the SPY September puts at some point.  It's possible that the decline we saw last week is over and we simply trend higher from here.  But I will have to see some more volume to believe that.  If we are higher into the end of the week, I'll consider the SPY puts.  GE was up about 15 cents and the volume was light.  This stock still cannot get anything going to the upside.  Gold dropped six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'll probably try the gold share calls if we get oversold again in the near term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every decline that we've seen since the election has eventually led to higher prices.  Will that be the case this time around as well?  That is the question.  We are in an unfavorable seasonal time for equities but whether or not that plays out is undetermined at the moment.  We're in option expiration week and can expect the usual positive bias.  That may set things up for the SPY September puts.  The McClellan oscillator did reach an extreme oversold reading last week..  Was it the initiation of something lower or the exhaustion of the selling.  As usual the market leaves us with quite a few questions with no clear answers.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A day of hanging around after yesterdays debacle as the Dow rose 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I did place an order for the SPY August calls but it never got close to being filled.  I still like the SPY call idea here if the scenario I'm thinking of plays out.  I'd like to see a drop below the 2430 level on the S&P in order to purchase the calls.  This would complete what looks to me as an A-B-C-D-E pattern or a 5 wave down pattern on the S&P.  That would be the set up to get long on a short term basis and be out by Thursday of next week.  That is the game plan for now.  GE was off a dime on pretty light volume.  Gold added six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  I canceled the open order for the ABX longer term calls.  This trade was missed.  I may try it again if the gold shares get oversold but the ideal time has passed.  Mentally I'm starting to feel a little better and trying to get back into the swing of things.  Vacations and trading don't mix.  The decline stopped today but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is over.  The breaking of the long term uptrend line in RUT must be respected.  I'll go out on a limb and say that I think we've seen the high in the S&P of 2490 for the year.  Perhaps I'm wrong there but I do think you have to at least consider that possibility.  There's a potential negative RSI divergence on the longer term weekly chart for the S&P.  The market will probably open Monday playing off the events or lack thereof over the weekend.  I'm feeling a bit tired and will be catching up on some rest this weekend.  I will however, go over all the charts as well.  We'll be into option expiration week and there's still a chance to attempt a short term trade.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of the DAX which was flat.  It's a Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a rest.

Well I'm back and what a session to return to.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 204 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold.  It is in an area where you'd normally expect a bounce.  The question is will it be a bounce that leads back up or simply a bounce to allow traders to get short?  Another question is whether or not to play the bounce.  Just getting back from a vacation, which isn't the normal circumstance for me, makes it hard for me to figure out what to do.  However I may just try the SPY August calls tomorrow.  The decline is geo-political in nature, with Trump vs. North Korea as the topic.  My thinking is that this too will blow over and we'll be back to economics once again.  But I could be wrong and often am.  GE dropped 3 /8 on light volume.  Gold was up $13 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  Nothing like international tension to get some gold buying going for a change.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/2 on good volume.  My open order for the longer term ABX calls wasn't filled while I was away and it really looks like this trade was simply missed.  I still have the order out there in case we see a decline in the gold shares to fill it.  But I'm starting to think that is probably would be best to simply cancel the order and move on.  Mentally I'm a bit tired from the travel.  My market data has to be updated and the time zone difference is still evident in my thinking.  The VIX really jumped today and is overbought any way you look at it.  The small stocks now look like they're leading the way down here.  Unless we see a rise tomorrow, the RUT will be breaking its uptrend line on a weekly basis that's been in effect since the beginning of 2016.  You might want to read that again because it is significant and would change the whole ballgame going forward.  I think that the fact we're in the seasonally weak time period for the market is another thing to consider as well.  So caution is advised at the moment.  The short term uptrend line for the SPY comes in just below the 243 level.  That would be the logical spot to try the SPY August calls for a bounce.  But what to do after that will be the question if in fact a bounce there does occur.  As usual there are plenty of questions to be answered in the game.  Perhaps waiting until things sort themselves out would be the best strategy but you won't make any money that way.  You won't lose any though.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight foreign market developments and see what tomorrow brings.