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Friday, August 18, 2017

Lower into the weekend as the Dow fell 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  No need to hold on to stocks ahead of the weekend was the theme for today I guess.  Oversold any way you look at it and some type of bounce is in the cards going forward.  Any rally can be shorted in my humble opinion.  The latest economic data that we've seen has all been pretty good and that is a positive backdrop for the market.  It's the event risk that has come to the forefront now.  Nothing positive out of Washington and the fear factor has risen with the recent terrorist attack.  We are also in a seasonally weak period for equities.  GE was down another twenty cents on average volume.  Ugly daily and weekly charts there.  Gold was off a buck and came off of the highs for the session.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  We did see one day reversals to the downside in there two indices.  I will probably try the longer term gold share calls if we get oversold in the next couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rolling into the September option cycle now.  I'd expect thin trading for the next couple of weeks and then back to full strength after Labor day.  But I could be wrong.  A definite pick up in volatility in the past couple of weeks but we've seen this in August before.  I'm not the only one that has seen the decline in RUT and that worries me.  When everyone has the same take on things it's usually a sign to go the other way.  However I'm sticking with my prognosis for lower prices going forward.  The ideal scenario in my mind for now would be a light volume rise next week in order to purchase the SPY September puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  We aren't close to breaking the longer term uptrend line in the S&P 500, which comes in at the 2350 level.  We should keep in mind however that the RUT led us up and can do the opposite as well.  Plenty of things to consider going forward.  I do wish that things were more clear with a decent trading signal but that isn't the case at this time.  Tread cautiously for now.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trading but nothing drastic.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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