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Thursday, August 17, 2017

Sharply lower today as the Dow fell 274 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We now have a lower high and a lower low on the S&P 500.  The trend is down.  In hindsight the recent bounce was your chance to get the SPY September puts.  I do not know if we will get another chance.  The RUT is leading the way down and just broke its 200 day moving average.  I suppose I should have done a better job of paying attention but there is no doubt about it now.  Rallies can be shorted.  I'm not sure how low we'll go here.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Nothing positive in this chart.  Gold added another $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a slight rise.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a terror attack in Spain today and that is taking some of the blame for todays rout.  On a technical basis we're short term oversold and getting there medium term.  However the buy signal isn't as strong as the one before the previous bounce.  I'm looking for ways to purchase the SPY September puts.  My hope will be that we simply don't just collapse from here because if that occurs, it will be too late for the puts.  The market goes where it wants though and rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  I will simply have to wait and see here if there's a chance to put on a trade that I'm comfortable with.  We could however get a buy signal tonight on the McClellan oscillator.  We may have a lower price print with a higher oscillator reading.  We'll take a look when the numbers come in later tonight.  The positive expiration bias was absent this time around.  I'll probably let tomorrow pass and go from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how the weeks ends tomorrow.

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