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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Well the market made up its mind to the downside today. The Dow lost 381 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. I was thinking we would wait until the end of the week for the decline to begin but I was wrong. How low will we go? I don't know. I can't see any sustained buying in this type of environment. The credit/mortgage/banking etc. crisis continues. The government bailouts are to simply keep the banks open but nobody quite gets this. The economy won't be turning around anytime soon. Hence down we go. Gold had a good day, up over $20. The XAU opened higher and closed lower though, off 2 1/2. GG was flat on the day but ABX and NEM were down around a buck. Volume was average to heavy in GG. I'm leaving in an overnight order for ABX calls. It's risky to be sure but I think gold is going to break out above $925 here. Hopefully the gold shares will follow. Normally when gold is higher and the gold shares move lower it implies lower gold prices. The dollar was stronger here as well today. However, these are not normal times. I'm thinking that 120 will hold on the XAU and we will rally off of that. So we'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So I'm taking a chance here and it may or may not work. We could just go into a free fall here with regards to all assets, including gold. You can't rule anything out in this type of market. So we'll see what happens. I think it's too late for the OEX puts but you never know. Interesting game.

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