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Monday, February 09, 2009

An indecisive Monday as the Dow lost about 10 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We're waiting for the presidents news conference tonight and the next bank bail out plan tomorrow. What happens is anybodies guess. My trade idea for now is that if we rally or stay about where we are, I'll be buying some OEX puts on Wednesday or Thursday. We are short term overbought but could stay there for a bit. I do think that we'll see weakness towards the end of the week. I could be wrong. Gold lost over $20 today and the XAU dropped 3 1/2. ABX and NEM were off over a buck and GG down around 1. Volume was average. The dollar lost ground as well. I'm not as sure about the gold shares here from the long side. Overbought longer term and gold vs. the dollar hasn't reacted the way it used to. Only 8 days left in the February option cycle as well. But you never know, I could change my mind tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. I'm thinking that trading the OEX could be the way to go here as opposed to the gold shares. I'll have to mull it over tonight. Most likely though I will be putting on some type of trade this week. Stay tuned.

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