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Friday, February 20, 2009

Down once again into the expiration as the Dow lost 100 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. We are very oversold both short and medium term. I expect a decent bounce on Monday or Tuesday. Hence I did buy some GE calls today. GE was down about 3/4 on extremely heavy volume. My thinking is this is a washout to the downside and we should move higher from here. Of course we could just collapse as well. But I don't think so. This is supposed to be a bounce trade so I should be out on Monday or Tuesday. Yes, the last OEX bounce trade failed miserably but this is a new trade. So we'll see. Gold was up $25 today and closed above $1000 for the first time in a while. I still like gold but am looking for a pullback. The gold shares just did not follow gold as well here as the last trip to $1000. The XAU was up 4 3/4. ABX only up 1/3, GG up a buck and NEM led the way, up 3. Volume was good. So I'll try and be patient here and perhaps even wait for the April cycle. But that's a guess. When it gets oversold that will be the time. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired after a long day. But that's the way it goes. A lot of questions to be answered next week. We are trying to hang in there at these levels. I think we will for now. The McClellan oscillator is probably in -300 territory, so a bounce is certainly in order. But who knows. You try your best and just keep on going. It is the weekend. I'll take a break and check the charts. A rest is in order and then back at it on Monday.

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