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Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Lower overall today but the Dow only dropped 42 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The inflation data was a bit higher than expected. The NASDAQ led the way down today off 1%. The S&P 500 posted a modest loss but did come back from the lows on the session. The short term indicators there have now rolled over from overbought territory. The short term up trend line for the S&P is still intact although we did reach down to touch it today. The market did not cooperate with the set up we preferred for the purchase of the SPY January puts so we will have to put that idea to rest. With only a couple of days left until option expiration the risk is too high and the time for that idea has probably passed. That doesn't mean that we can't go lower in the following sessions but we probalby should not going to risk any money on it. Gold was up $37 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU added 1 1/8 and GDX was up around 1/3 on average volume. GDX simply continues to remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but came off of its best levels. Most of the short term indicators are still moving up which still implies more selling in the near term. The problem here is that we are running out of time for the January options. The prudent course of action would be to roll into the February option cycle which has an extra week in it. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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