Wednesday, November 11, 2015
To the downside today as the Dow fell 56 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. It was a back and forth session that had more volume than I would have thought. My SPY November calls are now in the red. Perhaps I am wrong in my thinking on this trade. The short term technical indicators have turned down and they are not yet oversold. I may have entered this trade too early or my diagnosis of the market here is just wrong. Time will tell on this but I think Friday will be the key. GE continues to rise and continues to impress. It was up 1/2 on the same extremely heavy volume. It is tough to get the calls here when there is never a pullback. It appears to be another missed trade. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures today, while the US dollar was weaker as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. Short term oversold for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only seven days left in the November option cycle. For some reason I am not feeling as positive about this SPY call trade as I was just yesterday. But today was a semi-holiday and perhaps tomorrow will bring a bit more clarity as to what is going on here. However with the summation index heading lower, the trend is for lower prices. I get the feeling that I simply made a mistake. We'll see how it plays out in the coming days. The data on Friday remain the main short term driving factor in my opinion. As always we'll keep an eye on the foreign markets and other overnight developments.