Monday, November 16, 2015
A bounce was due and perhaps overdue but we got it. The Dow soared 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Despite the attacks in Paris, the market moved higher. Technically, it almost had to. You cannot deny the indicators but the timing is always tricky. The summation index is still moving lower though and todays breadth was nothing special. Where do we go from here is the next question. My SPY November calls are still solidly in the red and I should probably sell them on any strength tomorrow for whatever I can get. The SPY December calls that I purchased are showing a gain. GE continues to refuse to go lower as it was up a bit again today on the extremely heavy volume that it has been showing lately. I'd still like to get the January calls if I ever get the chance. Gold was up overnight but came back down during the day. The futures finished flat on the session as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It is expiration week and perhaps the positive bias will show up for the next 4 days as well. There is a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart which could turn out to be a positive. But with so little time left on the November options, I am probably better off to take the loss there and hold on to the December SPY calls. The short term technical indicators have turned higher for now. Of course that could all change tomorrow. I was looking to get some OEX November calls this morning if we got a drop but not much materialized there despite a decent drop in the index futures overnight. We'll have to see if the market can follow through to the upside tomorrow. We do have some economic data due out this week and the Fed minutes out on Wednesday. So we'll see what happens as I think most of the trading for the month will be done this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday next week. We'll see if the overseas markets can move up overnight to follow the US and see how the open goes tomorrow.