Monday, November 30, 2015
A one day reversal to the downside to begin the week as we started off briefly to the upside and then turned around and finished with a loss of 78 points. The advance/declines were negative and the volume was pretty good to end the month of November. The economic data out today was a bit weaker than expected. The summation index is still moving up. I don't think that today is the beginning of some type of extended down trend. I do believe that things will turn around and we'll close out the week higher. But I could be wrong. On the S&P 500 daily chart it still looks like a sideways congestion to me. GE was off 3/8 and the volume was heavy. Perhaps GE is telling us to expect lower prices in the near term. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over. I'm looking at the January calls here but will probably wait for some more downside. Gold was up $9 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not exactly feeling 100%. Weakness to start the week in the major stock indices. The TRAN once again had a bad day and that's a negative. Most of the major averages are in short term overbought territory. Perhaps my take on things is wrong but I expect a bullish outcome going forward. To me the worst case scenario would be for the S&P 500 to make it back to its uptrend line at 2065. That is also the level of the 200 day moving average. But my own work points to strength by the end of the week. We've got the ECB and Yellen speaking on Thursday. Friday brings the employment report. So I will at least hold onto my SPY December calls until then. They are still in the black but lost some ground today. Perhaps we'll see some beginning of the month money flows into stocks tomorrow. We'll watch the foreign markets tonight as usual.