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Friday, November 13, 2015

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 203 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 200 market would suggest.  The economic data today came in a little light.  The summation index continues lower.  We should have seen a bounce today with the oversold technical indicators and the recent McClellan oscillator reading.  But we didn't.  This is the point where I have to say to myself that I just don't know what is going on.  I would say perhaps that we could crash on Monday but we are nowhere near the technical zone for that to happen.  So I'll just say the market is going where it wants despite the technical readings.  My SPY November calls are big losers but there isn't a lot of money involved.  I still believe that we are at the point where a decent upside move is imminent.  Monday or Tuesday will be the time to book the loss on that trade.  I am still a believer in higher prices and so today I did purchase some SPY December calls.  That trade is showing a small loss.  GE continues to baffle the mind and was up a dime on extremely heavy volume.  Traders want GE at any cost or so it seems.  Perhaps I should have just paid attention here.  Gold finished the session flat as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  No interest here and that is the same old story as of late.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit confused as the market indicators have reached levels that would suggest some upside but we just keep going lower.  That's really never a good sign.  There's a chance that maybe I should just sell out of the calls that I have and head for the sidelines.  It will be something to ponder.  My interpretation of the indicators seems to be off right now.  But I have to say that the readings are very bullish in the short term and they get even more bullish as we drop.  I do not think that things will fall apart here but who knows?  The action this week was very negative in a technical sense.  We'll have to see if it continues next week.  Option expiration week is upon us but after today it doesn't appear that there will be a bullish bias in place.  But we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.  I still have to believe that there will be some pretty good upside in the beginning of the week.  I could be wrong.  A lot to think about over this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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