Thursday, November 12, 2015
It was quite a day to the downside as the Dow dropped 254 points on good volume. The advance/declines were just north of 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. I had a feeling yesterday that I had made a mistake with this SPY November call trade and today verified that. Not sure what to make of the move but we did practically close on the low and that's bearish. No doubt short term oversold here and the McClellan oscillator is at a level where bounces have come. But a bounce may be all we get and it may not come until next week. The SPY trade is solidly in the red and has become a cut the loss situation. GE was off 1/2 on the heaviest volume we've seen yet. The volume for this issue in the past month or so has been off the charts. I still would like to get the January calls here. Perhaps I'll get the chance in the days ahead. Gold was up just a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower today. Still no real interest in the precious metals. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The data tomorrow should provide the backdrop to whatever happens early. It looks like things are simply going to continue lower. Expiration week is coming and it usually has a positive bias. Things are oversold here but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way. Perhaps we are back to the deflation fear again with the drop in commodities. I'm not sure so I try and stick to the technicals. With the summation index going lower with some purpose now, it might be time to be careful. That doesn't help me when I'm already holding index calls. I guess tomorrows price action will say a lot in whether I hold onto this trade over the weekend. However it is clear that my timing was wrong and this will probably be a losing effort. I would not be surprised to see the foreign markets roll over tonight. We'll check out the data in the morning and see where the market goes.