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Monday, March 19, 2012

Just another day in the marketplace as the Dow rose 6 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Both short and medium term overbought here and I would expect some type of pullback pretty soon here. But the market will go where it wants and we could stay overbought as we have in the last few months as the stock indices grinded higher. But I would not be surprised by some weakness near term. GE was off a touch on light volume. I am going to try the May 20 calls here if they get to a price that I'm looking for. That is one of the ideas I am looking at going forward. Overbought here as well, so perhaps I'll get a chance to purchase the calls this week. We'll see. Gold was up $11 on the futures but pulled back from there in the aftermarket. The US dollar was lower again today. Not exactly sure what is going on with the dollar here but it hasn't led to any kind of rally in gold really. That generally isn't bullish for gold. The XAU lost 1/3 after being higher early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses of 1/4 or less on average volume. I think we may get one more washout downdraft in the gold shares and I will be looking at the May calls if that occurs. That's a guess as usual. The gold shares are still oversold and staying there. The stock market is rallying and there is not any interest in the gold shares. The Gold/XAU ratio remains in a strong buy signal and nothing is happening. We are getting to be at about the most bearish that it can get for gold. That is probably when you want to step in. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing has changed since the last trading session. Moving higher in an overbought environment for the stock indexes. The trend remains up. It will end at some point but trying to pick that point right now is impossible in my mind. I'll be looking for some calls on a dip. March is typically the worst month for the price of gold and that is the case so far this month. Patience is required here to get long again.

2 comments:

Nishi said...

Nice blog,i am for the first time here and found that this blog is quit informative and interpretation about these commodities is also very accurate.
Thanks for sharing this post with us.
Regards
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