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Monday, March 12, 2012

A day of marking time as the Dow gained 37 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. Waiting on the Fed I suppose as the outlook going forward for interest rates will be announced tomorrow. Technically we're more overbought than oversold on the stock indices. It is expiration week for the market. I'm on the sidelines for now as my confidence is shot and I have no real trading ideas. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. No trades for me there. Gold fell $10 on the futures today as the US dollar was a touch weaker. The XAU lost 2 2/3. ABX off 1/4, GG down 3/4 and NEM fell 1 1/8. Volume there was light to average. The Gold/XAU ratio just keeps becoming a stronger buy but the gold shares are not moving higher. I don't know what to make of that. I'll probably be trying the April or May gold share calls if we get a decent technical signal on the daily charts. Oversold to be sure here now but no rally. Again, I don't know what to make of it. I think that I'll let this week pass and check the May options when they come out. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired perhaps due to the time change. The S&P 500 is knocking on the door to new highs for the year. Perhaps we will get there after the Fed tomorrow. That's a guess as usual. I don't have any trading ideas for now. 4 days left in the March option cycle. I'll try my best to not do anything stupid. I rarely do anything good on the short term trades. I suppose it's time to sit back, study the charts and try to regain some confidence.

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