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Monday, March 01, 2010

A positive start to the week and the month as the Dow gained 78 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light. The trend remains to the upside as previously discussed. We are getting short term overbought but could stay there as is the case with up trends. The dollar had a good day and the stock market shrugged it off. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps? Gold was flat today and the XAU gained 2 3/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had at least 1/2 point gains or more on light volume. The gold shares outperformed gold and that is usually bullish going forward. The gold shares also decoupled from the stronger dollar. I don't know what it means going forward but we'll have to keep an eye on it and see if it continues. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. I don't have a clear idea of exactly what to trade here but I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts if we hold up until Fridays employment report. That remains to be seen. The summation index is heading higher and it is tough to fight that. I'm going to have to remain in a wait and see mode for now. The daily technicals are overbought on the indices and have been for a few days. That won't last forever. However we could be in the final run up of the market which would last until the March expiration. Crosscurrents here to be sure.

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