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Thursday, January 04, 2007

The Dow rose 6 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were even. We were down early, came back for a good gain and then fell back again. The market action is very sloppy here. I don't like it. The employment report is out tomorrow. We'll see what happens. GE lost about a quarter point on good volume. The calls are still profitable but I might just dump these things tomorrow. The scenario I had in mind just isn't panning out. Gold lost around 4 bucks and the XAU shed another 2 1/2 points. Volume was OK there. I'm staying away for now. Oil has been weak the first couple days this year and so have commodities. This leads me to believe that a worldwide slowdown in economic activity is at hand. I had already thought this earlier, in the US especially, due to the inverted yield curve. When copper broke through $3 last month, that confirmed it for me. I'm thinking that eventually it will lead to lower interest rates here and a weaker dollar. That in turn will cause gold to rise. But it isn't happening just yet. Mentally I'm trying to figure out this GE trade. I'll have to let the market do what it will and take it from there I guess. However it would be good to start the new year out with a winning trade. I usually don't.

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