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Tuesday, February 22, 2005

We had an interesting day today. The Dow got clobbered, down around 175 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative on heavy volume. We are oversold. Due for a bounce but I believe that bounce can be used to initiate short positions. The heavy volume today may have signaled a short term end to the selling. Or not. The summation index has rolled over and the trend is down. Oil rose over $50 a barrel and the markets are nervous. Combine that with some dollar blabber from Korea and you have a jittery market. The dollar lost over a point. The markets did not expect that. Gold rose over $7. The XAU was up over 3 and 1/2 points. ABX was up almost a dollar. The calls are doing very well. Which brings up the problem of when to sell these things. ABX is at resistance of $25. The weekly chart suggests more upside so I am holding them for now. If by chance we get through resistance these calls could bring substantial profits. But who knows? The daily charts are way overbought for all gold issues. But this has the feel of an exceptional short term move. I could be wrong. Things can turn around rather fast in this game also. Inflation report due out tomorrow. It will be closely watched. Trading is difficult, even when making money. You have to be patient and disciplined. You don't want to get out too early on a winning position, thereby missing out on some of the profits. But you also don't want to give up what you have either. I still have a stop loss order in for these calls. I've got March and April strike prices. We have gotten to targets that I thought would take weeks to reach. Instead it has taken days. Perhaps this move is move powerful than I have expected. I don't really know. An interesting game indeed.

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