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Monday, February 28, 2005

The market lost 75 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were not too bad, about 13 to 19. I think the volume perhaps was skewed by the bad news for Biogen and Elan. Maybe the end of the month had something to do with it. I am confused as to which way we go here but I'm leaning towards the downside and might take a position prior to Fridays employment report. Gold was up a little bit and the dollar was slightly weaker. I sold all of my ABX calls. As much as I wanted to hold on, I got out. ABX had good volume today but could not gain any ground. The stochastic has been overbought for a couple weeks and the RSI has been over 80 for a while. I did not get the best price of the day but the profits were good and I'll give an update tomorrow. I even sold the April calls, which have about 7 weeks left on them. My thinking is that I will buy these options back at a lower price and try this trade again. I am considering moving up to the next strike price since the stock has moved so much. Now I could be wrong. Gold has every right to just keep on moving higher. However it has been overbought for a while and I think a pause is due. I might even try something before Friday. It is difficult to sell out here for me. Time is on my side. But I think I'm doing the right thing. The technicals support it for now. Trading is the most difficult game in the world. I cannot stress that enough. Even with profits, I always seem to second guess what I do and try to think of a better way to handle the trade. As much as I know it is impossible to catch the exact high and low of a move, I continue to try and do it. I can sometimes get one of them but never both. The markets are just always moving and I've got to learn to live with that. At any rate, there is a chance I might switch to NEM for the next go round. It has been lagging but perhaps the interest in ABX has waned. For now I'll just have to sit back and watch. Try and come up with a strategy for the next trade. More tomorrow...

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