Well, GDP did come in lower than forecast. Gold was up $4 but the dollar did not fall, which was interesting. The XAU rallied but not that much, only up a little over a point. NEM climbed 90 cents. My options gained some ground. I almost sold them but decided to wait it out a little longer. The technicals are all still pointing towards higher prices. The Dow gained 10 points, advance/declines were positive. The volume was weak however and I think we are running out of steam here. I will be looking to buy some OEX puts next week for a short term trade. We've got the employment report at the end of next week. That will probably be the catalyst for a move one way or the other. Don't have a good read on that just yet. Might be back here this weekend but it is summertime...

Dow up 12 points today.  Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good.  Maybe a short term bottom is in.  Tomorrow will tell the story.  Gold was down a couple bucks today.  However the XAU was up over a point.  Leading gold higher tomorrow as it has in the recent past?  NEM was only up 15 cents today which was disappointing.  My options are still showing a profit but I didn't like today's action.  But I was waiting all week for the GDP report and that will come tomorrow.  The dollar was a little higher today.  My ideal scenario is the dollar falling tomorrow and a good gold rally that hopefully pulls along the gold stocks with it.  Who knows?  The opposite could happen and then I would say the dollar weakness has come to an end for the longer term.  It is right at the downtrend line that has been effective for a couple of years.  We'll see what happens.

Volatility has returned.  The Dow was down 80 points earlier and now is up 60 with 20 minutes to go.  Volume is good however the advance/declines are slightly negative.  GE could have been a tip-off.  It was slightly weaker and then started to rally before the overall market did.  I should keep an eye on it.  NEM announced their earnings and they were terrible.  But after a slight sell-off early it actually started to rally as did the XAU.  A stock that rallies on bad news usually is a positive development.  My option position is in the black.  However I notice NEM is selling off from the highs as we near the close.  Gold was only up around a buck and a half today.  I'm waiting for fridays GDP report on this one, as I have mentioned before.  Again though, anything can happen regardless of the number that comes out.  I would suspect tomorrow to be a day of waiting for NEM.  Maybe some slight downside on light volume.  That's my scenario anyway.  Looking back of course I would be much happier if my overnight ticket would have been filled.  I would have twice the size in this trade and for now it looks like it will be profitable.  End of the month almost upon us and that could move things around also.  Just waiting for friday at this point.

I bought some NEM August calls.  I have the 40's.  I placed a couple orders overnight for August and September NEM calls.  When I got up this morning they weren't filled.  The August ones got close but I had put in orders that I didn't think would get filled unless there was a perfect storm.  Gold was down a few dollars.  The US dollar was stronger.  I watched and waited.  Halfway through the session the XAU and NEM started to rise.  I figured with the earnings coming out on NEM tomorrow maybe I should pick some up.  I waited for a pullback.  It never came.  Others must be thinking what I'm thinking.  I decided to just buy some calls.  Somewhat chasing the move, however this move might just be getting started.  Had I been quicker to realize what was happening, I could have saved a few bucks.  Both the XAU and NEM had a one day reversal.  We will see if it's for real.  Looks like it could be a bottom on the daily charts.  I will say the fact that the earnings for NEM come out tomorrow influenced my decision.  That and the market action today and the technical oversold levels of the XAU and NEM.  We'll see what happens.  The overall market has rallied today with the Dow up about 135 points right now.  Advance/declines are positive but not extreme.  Volume is pretty good.  Is this an oversold bounce or the start of something real?  I'm thinking oversold bounce.  Fridays GDP is key I believe, for this gold trade and the markets.   End of the month too.  XAU still rallying here and is up a full point.  10 minutes to go.  We'll see what tomorrow brings...

The Dow closed basically unchanged today.  It was up early, sold off and then came back.  Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was pretty good for a monday.  I'm thinking that it has got to get going on the upside sometime this week.  Not necessarily stay there but at least have some positive action pricewise.  But I don't really know.  You never do.  Gold was also unchanged on the day even though the dollar was weaker.  The XAU was down a point and a half.  NEM off about 75 cents.  Crosscurrents.  I'm thinking of putting in a couple of overnight orders for NEM.  I will price them for perfection, meaning only a best case scenario will trigger them.  NEM earnings on wednesday.  It's oversold as is the XAU.  I do want some type of position before fridays GDP.  XAU 2 1/2 points away from the multi-year weekly uptrend line.  It's just about gametime.  Timing on all trades is the most critical component for success.  Yes, you have to get the direction right.  Yes, you have to pick the proper instrument.  Yes, you must define the risk parameters.  But if you don't time it right it will cost you more than any of those things.  A trade will be entered at some time this week.  And when it is entered and at what price are very serious issues that have to be dealt with.  It's not an easy task.  However if done correctly, the action will be well rewarded... 

Sunday night with the S&P futures up a little and so is gold.  No trades in the OEX for now.  I will be buying some gold calls this week if the market cooperates.  As I mentioned before the dollar is on the cusp of breaking a multi-year downtrend line along with the XAU just about to break its weekly uptrend line.  I will be trading as if those lines will continue to hold.  I believe they will.  If they don't then I will simply get out of any trades taken.  I think the GDP report on friday will be weaker then expected and the dollar will head lower.  NEM has earnings out on wednesday.  I will try to let that pass before taking a position.  The options still have 4 weeks left for August.  Who knows, I might even be patient and let a base develop but I doubt it.  I think any rally in the stock market will be short-lived or sold into at this point.  Puts will be the play there as conditions warrant.  It is a most difficult game to play.  Volatility has picked up.  Am I up for the challenge?

More downside today.  Dow off 88 points.  Advance/declines negative.  Summation index still pointing down.  Looks like trouble.  Should see some relief rallies along the way but the path of least resistance is down.  Looks like the market thinks Kerry will be the victor in November.  I think that that's part of it.  Also my theory that the economy is heading down could be correct.  Certainly seasonality is a factor.  Gold was off a few bucks today.  The XAU and NEM got down to their short-term trendlines.  I did not buy calls.  They then proceeded to go below the trendlines and close on their lows.  XAU down around 2 1/2 and NEM off 1 1/2.  The longer term weekly uptrendline for the XAU is at 80.  If and when we get there, I'm buying calls.  NEM has its earnings report on wednesday.  I will try to not let that influence me.  I would like to be long before next fridays GDP report if conditions allow.  I believe that report will be weaker than expected and the dollar should fall.  The dollar was stronger today and is approaching a weekly downtrend line at 90.  If it breaks to the upside, all gold calls should not be bought.  Same if the XAU breaks 80.  So we are at a critical juncture or just about there.  More this weekend...

Volatility has returned.  We ended up down over 100 points yesterday.  The Dow was up 4 points today but was down around 60 at one point and up over 20 at another.  Advance/declines were negative.  The volume has picked up in the last couple of days.  The summation index has rolled over and is heading down.  Usually this means lower prices.  But it was going up through most of the recent decline.  Gotta believe that the market will trend lower though.  Gold was down a couple bucks today.  NEM and the XAU were marginally higher though.  We are practically at the short term uptrend line.  A decision must be made as to the purchase of calls.  Some of the technical indicators are oversold here.  This has been the area to get long in recent months for profits.  How long can it go on?  I don't know.  I suppose I'm willing to try it again.  Today might have been the day.  Still over 4 weeks left on this option cycle.  Would like to see a few days of sideways activity in the gold stocks to form a better base.  But you can't have everything I guess.  Will try to wait until the beginning of next week. 

A quick note with 2 hours to go in the day.  Haven't left for the track yet.  The market rallied early on the Microsoft news of a special dividend.  However the day has turned around and we are now negative.  Advance/declines are solidly negative.  It remains to be seen how we will close today but I think this thing is in trouble.  Can't rally on good news, never a positive sign.  Gold is down $5, the XAU and NEM are weak but not terribly so.  Approaching the uptrendline for NEM soon.  Dollar strong but that's because of Greenspan.  The data coming in is still weak.  Dow flat at the moment.  We'll see how it closes.  Back again tomorrow...

Finally some upside.  Dow was up 55 points, advance/declines were decent and so was the volume.  Big Al Greenspan was talking up the economy before some government panel.  Will it last?  Who knows?  It's still oversold but not as much.  Call buying has increased and if that keeps up I don't think the rally will last long.  Gold was off around 3 and a half bucks.  Nice heads up from yesterdays XAU action.  Both the XAU and  NEM were off fractionally.  Still trying to be patient when it comes to purchasing those NEM calls.  Gotta wait until it gets to the uptrend line, if possible.  It seems like buying comes in whenever this thing sells off though.  And the earnings are in a week.  Dollar was stronger today.  Lots of crosscurrents.  There's no rush but I don't want to miss the boat either.  Toughest game in the world, this trading is.  Internal battles with oneself are ongoing too.  It's possible that no blog posting will appear tomorrow.  I'll be taking one of the rare semi-days off here and heading to opening day at Del Mar.  Will be leaving about 2 hours before the close.  Might get back to post later that evening but I doubt it.  It's summertime...

The Dow was down 45 points today.  Most of that can be attributed to 3M which sold off big after its earnings announcement.  Volume was a little better than usual but nothing spectacular.  Whenever a market goes up or down due to one stock, sometimes it will go in the opposite direction following this action.  We sure need some type of upmove.  Advance declines were slightly positive.  The OEX was actually up a little.  On the sidelines for now.  Gold did not move much, however the XAU was down around a point and a half and NEM was off about 80 cents.  Does that mean gold will be down tomorrow?  Would like to see NEM get to around $40, it's at 41 and change now.  The earnings are due out in a week.  Now do I get long ahead of that or not?  I f it goes down then I probably will.  But if it rises into the earnings announcement I'll lay off.  What more good news could come after that?  So I guess I'll have to be patient and let the stock price dictate the trading outcome.  We all know how hard it is to remain patient.  Let's hope I can sit it out for a while here, meaning until the uptrendline it touched or the beginning of next week.  Wish it was easy but it never is.

Sunday afternoon and hot.  S&P futures up a tad and gold is unchanged.  I'm looking for a rally in the OEX here.  Can't stay oversold forever now, can it?  Don't know how much the rally will be or if it will even happen.  But the odds favor one at this point.  I'm hoping for a pullback in gold and NEM in order to get long again.  Hard to say what will happen there.  Will have to listen to the market.  The racetrack opens for the summer this week, a nice diversion.  With the summer doldrums firmly in place, something is needed to liven things up.  Not a lot of economic reports this week although Greenspan will be giving a couple of speeches.  Looking back on the last trade, the exit could have been done better.  The entry on the July calls was excellent.  The timing could not have been better.  The August calls were chased on the entry.  I would still be holding them if a better entry had been done.  The exits, done at the same time, should have happened when resistance was hit.  It cost me some money waiting around for a breakthrough that never happened.  As always, timing is the key to profits.  I don't anticipate buying anything this week since the premiums will be higher than usual due to the extra time for the August options.  But ya never know...

The market just can't get any traction.  Dow down again, around 25 points.  Advance/declines about even.  Like I said previously, when the breadth starts to deteriorate, I think we will be in major trouble.  But right now we're oversold and I would expect some type of bounce or rally.  It's really a dull, no interest market.  The worst summer doldrums I've seen in a while.  Gold was up a couple bucks today and the dollar hit a 4 month low.  That didn't get the XAU moving, in fact it was down a little.  NEM continues to show good relative strength and was up another 40 cents.  Volume was light again though.  I'd like to see a pullback in NEM here to get long again.  But who knows?  I am concerned about the overall market though.  We really need some buying in here soon.  We now roll to the August options, which have 5 weeks on them.  Premiums will be higher.  Now comes the hard part which is patience.  I'll do my best.  But if a good signal appears, I'll have to act on it.  Might be back this weekend but it is the summer...

About 20 minutes to go and the Dow is down around 20 points. Not a lot of movement considering all the data that came out today. Well the data was mixed and so is the market. Advance/declines are solidly positive here though. I would love to have the guts to buy some OEX calls now. Even though they only have one day left on them. We are medium-term oversold. And the transports are up big today, over 45 points. They sometimes lead the Dow and that may well be the case right now. But the risk is insane. Gold was down around a buck today. The XAU is off fractionally and NEM is right about even. NEM is holding up pretty good here today but the volume is pitiful. The dollar was stronger against the major currencies today and the inflation data was benign. I'll buy some more calls on NEM on a pullback, if that occurs. Results for the previous calls: a 40% gain on the August calls sold yesterday and a little under a 400% gain on the July calls. That's not a typo. And the July calls should have been sold when NEM hit resistance last friday for an even bigger gain. But what can ya do? Option expiration tomorrow, 10 minutes to go here and I'll fight myself not to buy some OEX calls at the close...

Finally got some volatility in the market today. The Dow was down around 35 points. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume picked up. Were up around 30 at one point and down around 70 at another. Lots of economic data out tomorrow, including inflation news. Gold was up around 3 dollars and change. The XAU didn't move up that much and NEM gained about 50 cents. I sold my July and August NEM calls near the close. With only 2 days left on the July options I had to bail out. They had a good profit, I'll give the details tomorrow. I figure I can purchase the August calls cheaper within the next 2 weeks. Made a little bit there also. I would have liked to have had the guts to hold on another day because if the resistance is taken out, NEM will go to $44-$45 pretty quickly. But something made me just get out. We'll see what happens tomorrow and I hope I'm not kicking myself in the ass. I don't have any OEX trades in the works but I think the market wants to go higher. However the August options have 5 weeks on them, which means there will be no hurry to do anything. Unless...

Another summer afternoon day in the market. Going nowhere, light volume, no volatility session. Dow up 9 points. Advance/declines slightly positive. It's the doldrums. No interest one way or the other. That might change tomorrow. Intel announced its results after the close and it is down almost a buck in after hours trading. We'll see. Gold got pummeled after the balance of trade number came out a little better then expected. It was down over 6 bucks and the dollar rallied also. Interesting how the gold stocks were down yesterday on no news. Stocks lead the bullion. Even with the sell-off in gold, the XAU was only down around a point and NEM was off around 20 cents. Could the gold stocks be heading higher from here? Of course that would help me out. The volume on the sell-off was light. My thinking is that we've taken a rest from the run-up of last week and now we are ready to go higher once again. That's the feel I get. But there are only 3 days left on the NEM July calls. Resistance is still at $42.5 for NEM. If we get there, I should sell and look for the next opportunity. And it may not even get there. Need to sell out soon here though. Maybe tomorrow. As for the OEX, there is no clear signal so I must stay on the sidelines for now.

Never made it back here over the weekend. Summertime. The Dow was up 25 points today on again light volume. Advance/declines were modestly positive. I wanted to get some calls but am not convinced this slight bounce is for real yet. The volume just isn't there. There are also only 4 days left until expiration so the timing must be exact really. Not that it can't be done but the risk is very high. Gold did not move today, however the XAU was down a point and NEM lost 75 cents. Does that preclude a decline in gold tomorrow? We'll see. I am now in the position of NEM having moved to the point of resistance and stalling. Will it be turned back here for a while? Or will it break through, as I am hoping? I have profits in both the July and August positions at the moment. Not as much as friday though. And there are only 4 days left on the July position. I would like to wait for the retail sales report on wednesday. Probably will. It's expected that NEM would need a rest after last week, just not a permanent sleep. The trade report tomorrow should impact the dollar, which way I don't know. And so it goes. It's certainly not the game for most, as I well know at this point. You are pretty much on your own here. It's not that it gets lonely or anything. But there isn't much input from friends or family. They're generally not traders. They might repeat something about the markets that they heard on the evening news. There won't be any insight, any help or anything worthwhile towards your goal of being a successful trader. You can't discuss things with them because they haven't the faintest idea what you're talking about. You can try but they just don't get it. You're not bubbleboy but you do travel mentally in a different orbit. It's frustrating at times, believe me. But not everyone has the drive and determination to see it through. Not everyone has the guts to buck the crowd and go their own way. I mean who in their right mind would think they could get started out of their living room trading against the best minds and the biggest bank accounts on the planet? But what can I say? I'm on a mission. I know it can be done and equally as important, I know that I can do it. It won't happen overnight and it hasn't. But with patience and discipline, there's a lot of money out there to be had. And if nobody else can understand that, well I knew I was going to have to do it on my own anyway. So yeah, maybe it is kinda solitary at times. I suppose I chose the road less traveled...

Market up today. The Dow gained 40 points. Advance/declines were good but the volume was light. I would like to buy some OEX calls but just can't bring myself to do it. I have even got an intermediate term buy signal on one of my indicators. But it just doesn't seem like the market really wants to go up here. However there is also a chance that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing on the OEX. I'm on the sidelines for now. Gold did not move today. However the XAU and NEM sold off early, only to rally back late in the day and both ended positive for the day. They are overbought for sure here. And NEM is just about at resistance at $42.5. If it somehow breaks through that barrier maybe $45 is in the cards. Wishful thinking. It is interesting though, especially when you own the calls. Lots of data coming out next week and earnings too. Plus option expiration. Should be a busy week. And I should be taking some profits. NEM is moving pretty strong. The ideal scenario is to sell the positions sometime next week and then re-buy them back cheaper in a couple weeks. Ahh, if only the markets worked that way. I think by now we know they don't. More this weekend...

Market down again today, Dow off around 70 points. Getting to be like a broken record. I didn't buy any calls but I sure wanted to. Advance/declines were negative and the volume picked up a tad. The McClellan Oscillator hasn't even gone negative in this whole decline. Don't know what that means but when it does go negative, watch out! We are oversold. Usually the market doesn't stay that way. At around 540 on the OEX. Possibly will buy calls in the 535 area. Must have the guts. A week left on the options after today. We'll see. Gold continued higher, up $5. The XAU was only up a point and change though. NEM was strong and up around 90 cents to about $42. Almost to the target of $42.5. Now do I get out at 42.5 or do I push it for more? Really should just get out. I can't expect gold to just continue to go straight up as it has the last couple of days. I expect some kind of pause tomorrow. The volume on NEM has picked up a lot, so I think this move is for real. Hopefully to last for more then a few weeks. I'll wait for $42.5 and take it from there. Resistance comes in soon on the XAU also. A good spot to take a rest for a couple weeks. Hard to say, the market will go where it wants, when it wants. NEM looking good for now though. My thoughts on that one are proving correct so far. As for the OEX? It's a much tougher game to play...

The Dow managed to go up 20 points today. Was up around 45 points and then pulled back. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were solidly positive. I'd like to get some calls here and almost bought some today. If we're down tomorrow I just might. Gold rallied strongly, up almost 10 bucks. I guess the lack of sell-off in the gold stocks yesterday was for real. The XAU was up 3 1/2 points and NEM was up 1 3/4. Both my positions are now in the black. Even the poor timing, chased move NEM August calls are now making money. Volume was heavy. We have broken out above $40 on NEM. The next stop is $42.5, where if I have any brain in my head, that will be the target to get out of these trades. That is the idea at this point. We should see resistance there and then I will buy back the August NEM calls at a better price. Sounds good in theory anyway. A couple of earnings announcement tonight but otherwise not much news coming out. I'll look to get some OEX calls tomorrow on weakness. However this is a confusing market that is not rallying even with the good internals. As I said before if the internals start to go negative we could be in for real trouble on the downside. Don't know, just guessing as usual...

Market again weak today with the Dow off 63 points. The advance/declines were moderately weaker and the volume was light. We were down over 80 points during the session. I'd love to take a stab at getting some calls here. Definitely oversold here on a short-term basis and even getting there on a longer-term basis. Might only be a bounce but we are due. Perhaps tomorrow I'll put in an order. Gold had an interesting day. It was off over $5. However the XAU was only down half a point and NEM was actually up a little on heavy volume. Normally I would consider the action to be pretty bullish. But I checked the headlines and it seems over the weekend in Barrons, the CEO of NEM said gold is in a paradigm shift with relation to the US dollar. He sees nothing but good things for NEM and the gold market because of this. Whenever they start mentioning something like this in a major publication, it's usually the kiss of death. New paradigm? Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right at the top of the tech boom. Would not be surprised to see NEM trade sideways now, which would kill my options. I need a break through resistance at $40 to see these positions work. Next resistance, which I believe is stronger, comes in around $42.5. Will sell out there if it ever happens. OEX calls tomorrow? We'll see...

Holiday monday. The dollar has risen overseas and hence gold is down a little. Need to see gold rally some here to have my open positions profitable. Short week with not a lot of economic news. Tough call. I expect the volume will be slow also. Overall market is due for at least some upside this week, I think. Longer term charts for both the OEX and XAU look positive at this point. Not much else to say today...

My thoughts on the US economy going forward. I really don't think that the economy will be strong. Consumer debt is very high. But you could always say that I suppose. There are no tax rebates coming up. Those checks everybody got the last couple years are no more. Interest rates were and are at historic lows. Everyone who wanted to refinance already has. Whoever could afford to buy a place most likely has by now. The zero interest new car deals are gone. Again if you wanted a new vehicle you have probably already bought it. Witness the recent slump in car sales. Wages are growing at an anemic rate. So there is no extra money being placed in consumers hands that way. With rates this low the economy only grew at around 4% according to the most recent GDP data. It will not be going up from here. Growth will be tepid at best. I think the next boost will be when the troops finally get out of Iraq. But for now, I don't see much. The current administration has thrown everything it could to get the economy going for the upcoming election. In 4 months the election will be over and then what? Rates are starting to rise and even though it's from historically low levels the perception of higher rates is there. Higher gas prices continue to be a drain on spendable dollars. If there is a terrorist attack on our home soil this summer, more contraction will undoubtedly occur. There is the uncertainty of the election outcome. Earlier I didn't think there was any possible way Bush could lose but now I'm not so sure. Businesses will most likely wait to see who wins before committing to new spending in their respective industries. The only plus for purchases this year is a tax law favoring depreciation that expires at the end of this year. I see some inflation for products. But nothing out of control. A little inflation won't hurt the economy going forward. A larger increase most certainly will. So there you have it. An economy that muddles along with its strongest growth in the rearview mirror.

The Dow was down 50 points today. Employment came in less then expected. The volume was weak ahead of the long weekend. The advance/declines were solidly positive. Interesting. I'm thinking of getting some calls next week perhaps. The weekend will give me a chance to check the dailies, weeklies and monthlies. Gold was up a couple bucks as the dollar was weaker. The XAU was up almost a couple points and NEM was up a point. The options purchased yesterday are showing a small profit and the August calls are starting to come back a bit but are still under water. Timing is everything. That's a lesson that can't be stressed enough. Of course when a trade starts to move your way you start to think that maybe you might know something. Don't be fooled. You don't know anything. The market moves where it does regardless of your trades. The overall market is puzzling right now, with strong internals yet lower prices. Imagine what might be happening if the internals were weak. Mixed signals but I'll check things over the weekend. And give my thought on the economy...

The Dow ended down 100 points. Advance/declines weren't all that bad though. Volume picked up a bit. I've noticed the new lows have dramatically expanded in the last 2 days. No trades here for now but I'm thinking some calls might be in order shortly. Employment data tomorrow and a long weekend to follow. The XAU ended down a point and NEM was off 70 cents. We'll see tomorrow how this trade will play out. Possibly was dumb to pick up some more calls short-term here. The uptrend line must hold or it's a loser. But you gotta take some chances once in a while. And this isn't a huge trade, moneywise. Why would the Dow be so weak here? Do the powers that be know something about tomorrows report? Or could it be something else. I'll give some of my longer term views on the economy over the weekend.

Purchased some July NEM 40 calls a few minutes ago. Not a lot of money in this trade either. We are at the short-term uptrend line and the contract is at its low. Looking for a bounce or if the line doesn't hold, get out. Sounds great in theory doesn't it? Gold was up $3 today and as of now the XAU and NEM are both down a little. Actually NEM is down around 60 cents to the support at $38. This should be a short-term trade with only 2 weeks to go on these things and being a couple bucks out of the money. Perhaps traders will be looking to buy some gold before the long holiday weekend. Or not. I'll return here after the close. Market down triple digits at the moment.