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Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Back from a long weekend and the Dow was the laggard today as it fell 118 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market did much better with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reaching new all time closing highs. The short term indicators for the S&P are overbought. They are at lower readings than the recent previous high. If they continue higher the potential negative divergance that we were looking for will be wiped clean. I did place an open order for the SPY June puts overnight. It wasn't filled today but I am leaving it out there. The only important economic data due this week is Thursdays inflation report. Iran conflict headlines remain in the near term picture. Gold was off $16 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 13 3/8, while GDX added 3 1/2. Volume was average. Gold down and the gold shares up is a positive for this area. The short term indicators for GDX are turning up and it appears that the 200 day moving average has held the near term decline. I still don't have any GDX option trades in mind here but we may have to rethink that. It also might already be too late for the June calls here but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with a positive market. The short term indicators here are trying to move up from the oversold side. Not sure what comes next for the VIX. The S&P set a new all time high and there is no overhead resistance. We are sticking with the view that the June puts are the way to go here and will try and purchase them at some point this week. Asia and Europe were lower overnight with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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