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Friday, November 21, 2025

Some relief from the selling today as the Dow gained 493 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. It is heading towards the zero line which would lead to the market falling apart. Not there yet but we have to be aware of it. I don't think that we'll break down here but I could be wrong. The Dow was the leader to the upside today. I would think that more near term upside is upon us as the holiday week coming is usually positive. But who knows? The short term indicators for the S&P remain oversold. On the weekly chart they are heading lower and getting to mid-range. Holding above the 20 week moving average for now as price bounced off that this week. A breakdown on the weekly chart could take us to around 6200 which be be a 10% drop from the recent highs. However at this point we'll see how things go next week before making any decisions. Gold was off three bucks today on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are back to stalling at the mid-range level. We are still waiting before putting on any trades there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits todays price action. The short term indicators are heading down but are still in overbought territory. The VIX remains above 20 so the volatility probably isn't over just yet. My guess is that the VIX will head lower next week as we see some buying but perhaps this year the holiday week won't conform with the usual probability. Rolling into the December option cycle so premiums will be high. The recent volatility adds to that as well. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual. Asia finished lower and Europe mixed to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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