Monday, November 17, 2025
Monday brought out sellers as the Dow fell 557 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The Dow was the leader heading lower as all the major averages suffered losses. It is options expiration week and the last full week before Thanksgiving. So whatever needs to be done by the main players will take place this week. We will also start to get some economic data now that the US government is back in business. NVDA earnings after the bell on Wednesday should provide reasons for movement as well. On the technical front the S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are moving lower and are not yet oversold. So the path of least resistance appears to be lower. With the summation index heading down it looks like some sustained selling is at hand. That said, I was looking at the SPY November calls today but did not make a purchase. I may consider them again tomorrow but the prudent course of action is probably to remain on the sidelines. We almost have a short term buy signal but not quite there yet. Also purchasing calls here flys in the face of the techncial evidence heading lower. Gold fell fifty bucks today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a touch lower. The XAU was off almost 5 points and GDX lost about 1 1/4. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are moving down with plenty of room to go. GDX is once again trying to hold on to the 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators on the VIX are almost overbought. If the VIX stays above 20 we'll see more selling and volatility. Right now that seems to be where the market is headed but we all know that things can turn on a dime in this game. Europe and Asia started the trading week on a down note with the exception of India. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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