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Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Continuing to sink as the Dow fell 498 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive though. The summation index is moving down. The market dropped for the first hour and a half, attempted to make a comeback and then dropped again in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 is now solidly below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are oversold but not completely so. 3 days left in the November option cycle. I should remain on the sidelines as the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. But we'll see. NVDA earnings after the bell tomorrow followed by some employment data on Thursday. Perhaps if we get some kind of short term rally we can try the SPY puts into the close on Friday. But it would be pretty risky. Gold was off $3 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU was up 3 3/8, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. Not trades in mind for the GDX options at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped up again today and remains above the 20 level. It has reached short term overbought. However as long as it remains above 20, volatility is the rule. If we somehow see a big rally out of nowhere in the next couple of sessions, that could give us the opportunity to buy some SPY November puts to hold into the close on Friday. But the timing in and out would have to be precise and that is extremely hard to do with so little time left in the November cycle. Asia and Europe got whacked last night as we are seeing a worldwide exit from stocks. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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