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Thursday, October 30, 2025

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 110 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We did get a sell signal from one of our indicators last night and it appears to be valid. How long it lasts is the question. The US/China trade talks ended peacefully but there were some earnings reports the weren't viewed as favorable. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading things lower by far. That is not a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down. Our hope is that things hold up here but the S&P did close practically at the low for the session. Gold rose $38 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU gained 5 1/4, while GDX was up 1 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. GDX remains short term oversold but the indicators are trying to move up. Not sure if GDX is putting in a bottom here but it is possible. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ended basically unchanged today which doesn't fit with a down market. Still short term oversold on the indicators here. Hard for me to figure out what the VIX is implying here as it hasn't matched up with the overall stock price movement for a few days. We are going to let tomorrow pass and look to next week to possibly make the next option trade. Asia and Europe finished lower. We'll close out the month of October and the trading week tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

A mixed bag after the Fed as the Dow fell 74 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. No surprises from the Fed as rates dropped as expected. The NASDAQ was higher today but the Dow was lower and the S&P 500 finished flat. As long as the NASDAQ continues to lead we'll give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Next up is the US/China trade meeting tomorrow. Good news will take us higher and bad news will see some selling. Gold was off $24. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume. GDX remains short term oversold hanging around its 50 day moving average. No GDX trades in mind for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and remains short term oversold. Not sure what to expect next there. Market breadth hasn't been all that great lately and the summation index has been having trouble going higher. Although we still give the bulls the edge for now we all know things can change in a hurry. We will see what happens overnight and go from there. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Another positive session as the Dow gained 161 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index is still moving higher. The gains were better during the day but we had a sell off in the final hour. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way higher. New all time highs for the big 3 again. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and that should get things moving one way or the other. If we can get a couple of days more of buying, a sell signal may pop up. We'll see. Gold dropped forty bucks on the futures to close below the $4000 level. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU was up 3 1/2 and GDX gained a point. Volume was good. The gold shares followed the overall market higher. GDX remains short term oversold. Not sure if it is putting in some kind of bottom here but we are not going to risk trying the GDX calls yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today on an up day and that doesn't fit. Still short term oversold here. Not sure what's coming next here. Still plenty of earnings to digest this week along with a US/China meeting of leaders. Trying to remain patient for now as we watch and wait. Asia and Europe were lower on Tuesday with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how markets react to the Fed tomorrow.

Monday, October 27, 2025

Powering higher as the Dow gained 337 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. New all time highs all around again as news of a thaw in the US/China trade talks sparked a rally. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The major indices have broken out and there is no overhead resistance. The S&P 500 is short term overbought but can stay that way during rallies. We will enjoy the ride for now. Gold lost $135 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished generally flat. The XAU fell 11 points, while GDX slid almost 3. Volume was pretty heavy to the downside. Once again traders are heading to the exits here. The gold shares did finish up from their lows on the session. But GDX has lost at one time today 20% of its value since hitting a high a week and half ago. The end of the parabolic rise is never pretty. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is short term oversold. Nothing here says that the rally in stocks has to end as the VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time. We will bide our time for now and wait for the next signal. The Fed on Wednesday and the US/China trade meeting on Thursday should be the next excuses for market movement. Asia and Europe began the week on a positive note. We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Marching up to new all time highs as the Dow climbed 472 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Inflation data came in a touch lower than expected and there was a gap higher at the open. The market never looked back but had a drift lower in the final hour. New all time highs were reached by the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. The S&P is still not completely short term overbought yet. There is no overhead resistance. I suspect that we will see higher prices from here in the near term. Gold was off $24 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again after being lower early on. Interest rates ended the day flat as well. The XAU fell 2 3/8, while GDX lost a point. Volume was a bit above average. GDX remains short term oversold on some of its indicators but not all. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. It is now short term oversold and closed below its 50 day moving average. The VIX still implies more near term gains for stocks. We are waiting for the next decent technical signal before taking on the next trade. There will be plenty of noise next week with a Fed meeting and a US/China get together. Headline risk will rise. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to try and come up with a game plan going forward. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 144 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to get going to the upside. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 appears to be back on its way to short term overbought but is not there yet. Tomorrows reaction to the inflation data should set the stage for where the market is headed next. My guess is that we'll be heading to new all time highs for the S&P. Gold was up $67 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates rose. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold but not completely so. The 50 day moving average here has held the decline for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and continues to be short term oversold. The daily candlestcik chart here looks like it wants to go lower which be be a boost for stocks. We'll see. Todays market action was a decent rebound from yesterdays losses but we are really just waiting for tomorrow. Europe and Asia finished higher last night with the exception of Japan. We'll see how it goes with the inflation report tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 334 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still struggling to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. It could have been worse though as stocks finished up from the lows on the session. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but I'm still in the camp that we'll hit new all time highs soon. I could be wrong. We'll see ow the rest of the week shapes up. Gold finished up $9 on the futures after being lower early on. The US dollar ended the day unchanged along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/2 and GDX rose 1/4. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares came up from their lows on the session as well. GDX has made it back to its 50 day moving average. We'll see if it holds. The short term indicators here are not yet completely oversold. It was quite a run for GDX but it has now at one point lost 17% in the past week. Gold itself is still very far from its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators are beginning to trend sideways. Some are oversold and others are not. The VIX was over the twenty level at some point today but then fell back. If the short term indicators for the VIX begin to rise again, volatlity will return and my prognosis of new all time highs will have to be put on hold. Fridays inflation data and the market reaction to it should give us some clues. Asia and Europe finished generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 218 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished flat. It was a sideways trading day for the most part. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We will get some inflation data on Friday to trade on despite the continued US government shut down. Option premiums remain high. Gold got clobbered today after yesterdays stellar gains. The precious metal futures lost $238. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a touch lower. The XAU fell thirty points and GDX shed 7 3/4. Volume was extremely heavy to the down side again. The gold shares dropped 9 1/2% in a day. The short term indicators for GDX are heading lower. Traders are heading to the exits here. This is most likely the end of the rally for gold and the gold shares for now. Violent moves in both directions usually occur at tops or bottoms. The short term up trend line for gold is still intact but not for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are still moving down. Below the 20 level on the VIX but still above the 50 day moving average. No imminent trades in mind right now. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Stocks rallied to begin the week as the Dow climbed 516 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. If things conitinue at this pace we'll be at new all time highs soon. That is probably what is about to happen. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are pointing up with room to go. Barring some unforseen negative event, we're going higher. Earnings season is upon us. Option premiums are high so we'll have to wait for now on the next trade. Gold soared $180 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU was up 8 points and GDX gained 1 2/3. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. The gold shares should have gotten more of a boost today with gold up as much as it was. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are moving down. This is in line with what we expected for the near term. I'd expect the VIX to continue lower and stocks to hit new highs at some point this week. If we get a sell signal after that occurs we'll have to decide what action to take then. But like I've already said the option premiums are high with the November cycle having an extra week in it. So we'll have to wait and see. Asia and Europe were up to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, October 17, 2025

Volatility is the name of the game for now as the Dow gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still heading lower. It was a back and forth trading day with an upwards bias. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 had the same percentage gains on the session. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. So it could go either way. However with earnings season upon us my guess is that we'll get the usual beating of low expectations that lead to rallies in particular stocks. We'll see. Rolling into the November option cycle. Gold took a breather today as it dropped sixty bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got clobbered. The XAU fell 23 1/3 and GDX dropped almost 6 points. Volume was extremely heavy in a run to the exits. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down again with room to go. Time will tell if this is the beginning of a sustained move lower or just another blip on the way up. Long overdue for some kind of correction in gold and the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX jumped up to 29 today only to drop all the way back near 20. The short term indicators here have turned down. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX implies that the decline is over. We'll have to wait and see about that. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual. No rush to trade as November has an extra week in its option cycle so premiums are high. Combine that with the recent volatility and options are pricey. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Heading lower today as the Dow fell 301 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. We had a gap higher at the open and a short rally that turned around. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the major indices. The Dow and S&P led things lower so it wasn't the most bearish possible scenario. But the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower again. Could lead to an interesting expiration Friday. I did not place any trades and decided to stay on the sidelines as the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. Had some opportunities this week but recognized that I was not up to the challenge. We are now looking at the November option cycle. Gold was up $125 on the futures, past the $4300 level and a new all time high. This rally in the precious metals is getting a little insane. The XAU was up 10 7/8 and GDX gained 2 7/8. Volume continues to be strong to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX continue to be overbought and it has broken above the upper Bollinger band. Perhaps gold knows something that we don't. Or maybe it's just another tulip bulb mania. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped to 25 today and is short term overbought. Volatility is back. As I've already said the trades have to be short lived and profits taken when they are there because that's where we find ourselves at the moment. Tougher than usual trading atmosphere. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week with expiration Friday tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Bouncing all around today and the Dow finished with a loss of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. We had a gap higher and rally at the open followed by a steep decline. The market then made it all back and then some. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted gains with the NASDAQ leading the way. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. I did put in an order today for the SPY October puts but it wasn't filled. Might be too late now for this idea but we'll see. Only a couple of days left in the October option cycle. We did make it to the resistance at 6720 on the S&P today. Perhaps if we get there tomorrow I'll try the puts but probably the more prudent thing to do would be to stay on the sidelines and roll into the November cycle. Gold was up over sixty bucks today and crossed the $4200 level. The US dollar finished lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 11 1/3 and GDX climbed 3 points. Volume was good to the upside. GDX is back to short term overbought. Gold is going straight up and the gold shares follow. An incredible run higher so enjoy it while it lasts. No telling when it will end but that will be spectacular as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and remains above 20. The short term indicators are starting to move sideways. Not sure where the VIX is heading next. Wild moves in the market lately so the risk factor has increased. You need to take your profits if you have them quickly in this trading environment. Asia was higher and Europe lower except for France overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 202 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ had a decent drop and the S&P 500 was slightly lower. We retested the recent lows on the S&P early this morning and they held for now. The question now is will the S&P head down there again and will the lows hold on a third drop? Today the S&P made it back to the first resistance at 6680 and was turned back in the final half hour. With only three days to go in the October option cycle is it worth the risk for another trade here? Well yes, if the timing in and out is correct. But that is no easy task. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are still heading lower and others remain at mid-range. I'll consider what I want to do overnight. Gold was up $27 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/2, while GDX slid 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators on GDX are overbought but not completely. Some of them are starting to turn down. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't a positive. Mentally I'm feeling a little tired. The VIX bounce around and finished higher on the session. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. The VIX is back above the important level of 20. So volatility should stick around for a while. Headline risk remains front and center since there is no economic data to trade on. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, October 13, 2025

A huge bounce back to the upside as the Dow gained 588 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. There was a big gap on the open and the market never looked back. The NASAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up over 100 points. Normally we'd be looking for a retest of the recent lows but the price action of the past couple of days has been headline driven so I don't know what to expect. Not looking at the SPY October calls anymore as the jump has already happened. Might try the puts again but with only four days left in the October option cycle the risk is very high. The short term indicators for the S&P are at mid-range with some of them pointing higher. There is some short term resistance at 6680 and plenty more at 6720. Those would be areas to think about the puts if we get that far. However there is also the possibility that the market simply continues to move higher from here. Gold gained $125 on the futures today to a new all time high. Silver hit a new high as well. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished flat. The XAU jumped 14 and GDX was up 3 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. There is no stopping the money flowing into precious metals or so it seems. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed back below 20. The short term indicators here have turned back down. That would imply more stock gains in the near term. We'll see. Asia lower and Europe higher to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Friday, October 10, 2025

The tariff tantrum returned and markets got clobbered as the Dow fell 878 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way down and was off 3.5%. The S&P 500 was off 2.75%. Players all headed to the exits at the same time. The S&P is no longer short term overbought and some indicators have already made it down to short term oversold. All the recent up trend lines for the S&P have been broken. Support could come in at the 50 day moving average at 6530 but we are practically there already. Selling out SPY October puts yesterday proved to be the wrong move but we did what we thought we had to at the time. If we had left the original stop loss order intact we would have been stopped out for a loss this morning when the market rallied at the open today. We've had this problem using the stops loss orders before where we've missed out on moves. However without them the losses can pile up pretty fast. Doesn't matter now. Our sell signal was valid but we are now concerned with where we go from here. I'm looking at the SPY October calls for next week. My guess is that todays tariff tension will be walked back over the weekend. Perhaps if we get some follow through selling on Monday we'll try the calls. Monday is a partial holiday in the US, so trading may be thin. Gold bounced back $57 today on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on above average volume. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to move sideways. Waiting to see if it breaks support at the 74 level. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated. The VIX jumped today and now is above the important level of 20. Short term overbought now but not completely. The volatility implied by the tight Bollinger bands finally came to fruition today. Not sure if this is a one day event or the beginning of a sustained decline for stocks. Plenty of work to do on the charts over the weekend. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 09, 2025

Minor selling today as the Dow fell 243 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow led things lower but that isn't the most bearish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had small losses and came up from the lows of the session in the final hour. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned lower but are still overbought. During the day I adjusted up my stop loss order on the SPY October puts as the decline didn't have any steam in it and I did not want to book another loss. It got stopped out in the final hour for a 5% gain. We don't take the risks involved trading options for 5% gains but this trade was not working as I had thought it would. The entry wasn't all that good and neither was the exit. Might try this idea again but running out of time in the October option cycle. Yesterday I was thankful that we abandoned the GDX put idea. Today gold and the gold shares got crushed. The precious metal futures fell $82. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU lost almost 13 points and GDX was off 3 1/2. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. The near term up trend line comes in at just below 74. A break there will tell us that the party is over for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. The short term indicators here are stalling at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next for the VIX. The Bollinger bands remain tight but that hasn't led to any big increase in volatility yet. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 08, 2025

The overall market continues to plow ahead but the Dow lags as it dropped a point on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower but could be trying to turn around here. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new all time highs. The S&P continues to remain short term overbought. It appears that our recent sell signal only lasted a day. I did adjust my open order for the SPY October puts and it was filled during the session. It is showing a small loss. At the rate things are going it will get stopped out tomorrow. Unless we see a quick turnaround lower this trade will be another loser. Gold was up fifty bucks today as the straight line higher just keeps on going. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 8 7/8, while GDX gained 2 1/8. Volume was good. GDX remains overbought on all timeframes and for longer than one could reasonably expect. Not sure when this will end and remain thankful that we shelved the GDX put idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall up market. The short term indicators have turned around lower and imply more stocks gains to come in the near term. That would kill our SPY October put trade but it appears that's where we are heading. Seven days left in the October option cycle. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

Tuesday, October 07, 2025

Some overdue selling today as the Dow fell 92 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but it wasn't anything dramatic. That is exactly how it has been lately. When we have seen any selling it has been minor and short lived. That could again be the case here but we don't know for certain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. My open order for the SPY October puts almost got filled in the morning but didn't. I adjusted it during the session but still no fill. I will probably adjust it again overnight. My thinking now is that this is something that I want to get filled on but I am not looking for a major decline to be starting here, just a tradeable one. I'll give this some more thought tonight. Gold simply continues to move straight up climbing another $27 on the futures to finish above the $4000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU dropped over 4 3/4 and GDX shed 1 2/3. Volume was average. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't exactly a positive development here but it's only one day. The short term indicators on GDX have turned down but it remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are moving up and are almost short term overbought. This points to the possibility that the selling that we are seeing will be ending rather quickly. That would mean the risk in trying the SPY puts here may not be worth it. Which is something else to consider later tonight. Europe and Asia were slightly higher overnight. Some Asian markets a closed for holiday this week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Monday, October 06, 2025

Another mixed market as the Dow dropped while the overall market gained. The most watched index fell 63 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at new all time highs. The S&P remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts remains out there. Hopefully it will get filled tomorrow as the sell signal on one of our indicators remains out there. I might have to adjust the order to get it filled but we should see some selling this week according to the techncials. Gold continues to move straight up as the futures gained $74 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates moved up as well. The XAU was up 5 1/8 and GDX rose 1 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. Thankfully we took off the GDX put idea last week. I'm still a believer that this rally in gold and the gold shares will have a nasty pullback at some point. GDX has remained short term overbought for such a long time that you begin to think that it will never drop again. But it will. Straight up moves never have a good ending. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators are starting to roll over by the mid-range level. This would imply higher stock prices in the near term. That would not bode well for the SPY put idea. The Bollinger bands here remain pretty tight but we haven't seen any really big moves despite that. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Friday, October 03, 2025

A mixed bag to end the week but the Dow managed a gain of 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ posted a small loss, while the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The S&P remains short term overbought. I'm leaving my open order for the SPY October puts out there but might adjust it over the weekend. Still on a sell signal for one of our indicators that we like but it can be early at times. But not more than a couple of days. We will most likely try and buy the puts on Monday barring a huge rally. Gold was up $44 on the futures to a new all time high and also crossed the $3900 level. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares really didn't follow. That is not a plus for the bulls. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for weeks. Will gold reach $4000 next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed. The short term indicators are trending higher but not yet overbought. I'm still not sure where the VIX is headed next. Another positive week for stocks as the rally seemingly has nothing to derail it. Plenty of money still to go around. It will end at some point but we certainly don't know what the catalyst will be. Two weeks left in the October option cycle. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished Friday on the plus side except for the Hang Seng and the DAX. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 02, 2025

The Dow gained 78 points in an up and down session to a new all time high again. The advance/declines were slightly negative and volume was heavy. The summation index continues to trend lower. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted new records as well. The S&P continues to be short term overbought and continues to move higher. This has been the case for a couple of months now. We're getting another sell signal from one of our indicators. I've placed an open order for the SPY October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order would be filled early next week but markets rarely cooperate. It is also a more tricky trading environment with the US government shutdown. We'll stick with the technicals though. Gold dipped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates ended flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was heavy. It was a very volatile session for the gold shares as GDX had an intraday swing of 4 points. Not sure what it all means but the gold shares finished well up from the lows of the session. Still considering the GDX October puts for now but really looking at the SPY options for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which once again doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are moving up from the mid-range level. Still not sure what's next for the VIX. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see where things go on Friday and take it from there.

Wednesday, October 01, 2025

We had a one day upside reversal to begin the month of October as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow rose 43 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way up. Even a US government shutdown wasn't enough to derail the bulls. However another problem to deal with here is that the economic reports might be delayed. We won't know when important trading data will be released. As if trading itself wasn't hard enough as it is. The DOW and S&P 500 set new all time highs. The NASDAQ is almost there. I'm still considering the SPY October puts if we stay positive into Friday. The S&P remains short term overbought. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 3 2/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. I canceled my open order for the GDX October puts. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged and the short term indicators are hanging around the mid-range level. Not sure what's next now for the VIX. More than the usual amount of uncertainty right now but the market continues higher. There is no overhead resistance. Liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem. It's a teflon market at the moment. Nothing sticks to it on the downside. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. I'll keep watch on the overnight headlines.