Friday, October 17, 2025
Volatility is the name of the game for now as the Dow gained 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still heading lower. It was a back and forth trading day with an upwards bias. The Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 had the same percentage gains on the session. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. So it could go either way. However with earnings season upon us my guess is that we'll get the usual beating of low expectations that lead to rallies in particular stocks. We'll see. Rolling into the November option cycle. Gold took a breather today as it dropped sixty bucks. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The gold shares got clobbered. The XAU fell 23 1/3 and GDX dropped almost 6 points. Volume was extremely heavy in a run to the exits. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down again with room to go. Time will tell if this is the beginning of a sustained move lower or just another blip on the way up. Long overdue for some kind of correction in gold and the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX jumped up to 29 today only to drop all the way back near 20. The short term indicators here have turned down. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX implies that the decline is over. We'll have to wait and see about that. I'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual. No rush to trade as November has an extra week in its option cycle so premiums are high. Combine that with the recent volatility and options are pricey. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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