Thursday, October 16, 2025
Heading lower today as the Dow fell 301 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. We had a gap higher at the open and a short rally that turned around. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the major indices. The Dow and S&P led things lower so it wasn't the most bearish possible scenario. But the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower again. Could lead to an interesting expiration Friday. I did not place any trades and decided to stay on the sidelines as the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. Had some opportunities this week but recognized that I was not up to the challenge. We are now looking at the November option cycle. Gold was up $125 on the futures, past the $4300 level and a new all time high. This rally in the precious metals is getting a little insane. The XAU was up 10 7/8 and GDX gained 2 7/8. Volume continues to be strong to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX continue to be overbought and it has broken above the upper Bollinger band. Perhaps gold knows something that we don't. Or maybe it's just another tulip bulb mania. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped to 25 today and is short term overbought. Volatility is back. As I've already said the trades have to be short lived and profits taken when they are there because that's where we find ourselves at the moment. Tougher than usual trading atmosphere. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week with expiration Friday tomorrow.
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