Back to the downside as the Dow fell 157 points on very good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. We were off over 500 points but a last hour rally brought the most watched index back. Still short term oversold but it looks like the Dow is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is trying not to break the lows of September. The NASDAQ did lead the way lower and that is not a positive. Pandemic virus angst combined with election uncertainty has led to the current market environment. Some things should clear up by Wednesday morning. But just how the market reacts to the election results is anybodies guess. The oversold condition would normally lead you to purchase the SPY calls. However the fact that we've been oversold and are staying that way warrants keeping any possiblity out there. Caution is the word for now regarding the SPY. GE was up a few cents on good volume. Gold had a bounce as the futures rose about ten bucks. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was better than it's been. My GDX November calls are still losers, just not as much. The entry timing here was atrociuos however I think that I can cut the loss down. My open order for the lower strike price GDX November calls was not filled again. I'm leaving it out there but I don't think it will get filled. GDX has already begun to move higher and the short term indicators are turning back up. I'm now fairly confident that the calls here will prove to be the proper selection. However the ones that I have already purchased are so far out of the money that they won't prove to be capable of turning a profit. There are still three weeks to go in the November option cycle but the optimum time to purchase the calls was over the past two trading sessions. I was early. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I would like to get my order for the lower strike price GDX calls filled. I cannot let that affect what I'm doing though because there will be opportunities in the coming days. The recent volatility creates favorable circumstances for trades. The VIX closed much lower than where it opened and is still overbought. It opened above 40 and closed near 38. I think that it is forming a top here and that would lead to a rally in stocks. But everything that I've thought in the past two weeks or so has been off target. So I would take anything said here with a grain of salt. Markets can remain oversold for quite some time just like they can remain overbought. With the NASDAQ leading the way lower I'll say once again caution is advised. We should get some kind of resolution about future policy when the election results are in. How the market reacts to it is the question. We would only be guessing at the answer. I'll be double checking my work over the weekend to come up with a strategy for next week. Asia was down and Europe mixed to finish the week and the month. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A weak bounce today as the Dow rose 139 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving lower. We had been up over 350 at one point. Somethings going on here but I don't know what. Tech earnings after the bell should set the tone for tomorrows open barring any other overnight developments. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and the trading could be skewed. We'll follow the summation index and the trend is down. I'm not sure what to expect next, so no SPY trades in mind for now. GE was off a few cents on good volume. Gold was off around half a dozen while the US dollar continued higher. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares followed stocks once again. Normally I'd say that it's bullish that the gold shares rose with the price of gold going down. But these aren't normal times. The rise in the US dollar would be a headwind for gold if it continues. My GDX November calls are still solid losers. I do have another open order for the GDX November calls at a lower strike price out there. I may cancel it tonight after I review todays price action. The technicals say buy the gold shares here but my thinking has been pretty wrong lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. Still overbought here and the VIX is saying that the decline is probably over for now. We'll see. Hopefully things will start to become clearer when we get the election out of the way next week. We're entering a favorable seasonal period for stocks but this year has been anything but predictable. I think that we'll just let the week and month come to a close. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The market fell apart today. The Dow lost 943 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. We'll take our cues from there as we should. Whatever I've said about a rise in stocks is wrong. Todays price action confirms that. When there's buy signals that don't work you have to take notice. Oversold now and staying that way and that isn't a good sign going forward. I certainly don't know what the story is here but the market does. I'm not sure how far down the S&P 500 will go but the next support is at 3200. Unknown to me why this is happening but if it is a double top here the measuring objective is around 2900 or so for the S&P. That's pretty far from where we are right now. The summation index is not near the crash zone but I suppose that doesn't mean it can't happen. I guess we'll see if 3200 holds and take it from there. GE bucked the trend and was up 1/3 on extremely heavy volume. Surprise earnings report there. Gold got clobbered as the US dollar was higher. The October futures contract lost $36. The XAU fell almost ten points, while GDX shed 2 1/3. Volume was double what it's been lately as it expanded to the downside. My GDX November calls are now solid losers. I'm thinking that if I give it a few days I can cut the loss a bit from where it is now. Maybe. I did place an order for some other GDX November calls at a lower strike price but it wasn't filled. That may not be the best idea here but the gold share index is oversold and the technical indicators are in a spot where they've rallied from in the recent past. However if the market continues to drop like it did today, it will take the gold shares with it. If the gold futures can't hold the $1850 level, this idea will fail. I probably shouldn't chase things lower here so we'll see what I decide over the evening. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped to over 40 and is very overbought. I guess the question is how high will it go and how long will this last? Volatility is through the roof but it can go higher. One of the more prudent things to do right now is simply head for the sidelines. In my view, unknown market forces are at work here. Oversold and staying that way doesn't happen often. The ensuing declines are usually pretty severe. The reason I'm a believer in the gold shares here is because the technical indicators both short and medium term are in spots that have led to rallies. Will this time be different? It could be but the odds say otherwise. Sometimes in markets like these, you can't be afraid to take a chance and support your ideas. The volatility works both ways and does create opportunities if you are able to take advantage of them. Tomorrow will prove to be another interesting session. We've got the GDP report and earnings from a few of the big tech companies. Money is heading for the exits though as Europe had big drops in stocks. Asia was slightly lower but should play catch up tonight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight markets and see how things go tomorrow.

Some follow through downside for the Dow as it lost 222 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. It was a sideways affair for the S&P 500, while the NASDAQ posted a gain. So a mixed bag to say the least. Getting to oversold on the short term technical indicators for the S&P. I think that we are about to head higher and will possibly reach new all time highs before the November option expiration. One of my medium term indicators is starting to flash a buy signal. This indicator gives signals that last for weeks not days. Unless things just completely fall apart here, the signal will prove to be valid. Now I have been bullish in the face of a two week decline. But I think we are simply in a pause before we start to move back up. GE was off 1/4 on good volume. The short term indicators have rolled over here. Gold finished up around $5 on the October futures. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX was up by 5/8. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. My GDX November calls are about where I bought them. Still oversold for GDX, so I'm hoping we are in the beginning of a sustained move higher. But I can't rule out more sideways price inactivity ahead of the US election. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher again today and we are short term overbought. The VIX should turn around here and that would imply higher stock prices going forward. Perhaps the GDP report on Thursday will be a catalyst for some buying ahead of the election. The background remains the same with the pandemic virus and uncertainty around the election as the main concerns. A positive NASDAQ today is a plus for the bulls. I'm already in the trade that I was looking for so it's a watch and wait mode for now. I am considering getting some SPY calls but the premiums there remain elevated. Still plenty of time in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow got pounded to begin the last week of October as it lost 650 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. It could have been worse as we were off 950 points in the morning. Selling everywhere as the realization that a stimulus deal isn't going to happen hit home. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 turned lower. The S&P did try to hang on to its 50 day moving average though. 3400 is holding for today but any follow through selling will take that number out. I have been constantly bullish over the past couple of weeks and that prognosis has been proven wrong. Not sure where we go from here. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. GE was off a quarter on good volume. Gold finished little changed on the futures as the US dollar was higher. The gold shares followed the market lower. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume remains light here. Not completely oversold now for the gold shares but we're getting there. My open order for the GDX November calls was finally filled. It's showing a small loss. The calls are out of the money but have plenty of time to work. I'm not exactly sure if this is the right idea for now but after looking at things over the weekend I decided to take the chance. There is the possiblity that we simply go sideways for the gold shares and that is the caveat with this particular idea. I do not think that a huge decline is going to happen with gold right now but my take on things hasn't exactly been right lately. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX spiked up with the huge loss today. We closed above the 200 day moving average and also above the 33 level. The indicators here spiked up as well but there is still some room to go a little higher. Follow through selling tomorrow will take us to short term overbought on the VIX. I'm not sure what is going on here but it appears that we'll be heading lower in a hurry. The market, as always, knows way more than we do. Unless we see some kind of turnaround tomorrow, the selling will continue. It is also looking like a big picture event as markets around the globe sold off. We'll know in due time what the real cause was but for now we'll just have to enjoy the show. There will be opportunities and I hope that I found one today with the gold shares. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the DAX taking the brunt of it. We'll be keeping an eye on the overnight developments.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow was lower and other indices were higher. The most watched index fell 28 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 sported small gains on the session. We are running in place here. The short term technical indicators for the S&P remain mid-range. It feels like we are in a holding pattern until the results of the US presidential election. The pandemic virus remains. The stimulus package is still all talk and no action. The market remains a hostage to these outside influences. I still think that we're heading higher but sideways is the trend for now. GE was off a few cents, dropped from its highs for the day and is overbought. Gold was off a few bucks but did finish up off of the lows. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was down about a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains very light. My open order was almost filled today for the GDX November calls. I'll decide over the weekend if this is a trade that I really want to do. Not completely oversold here yet so I may have to adjust the order. I'll see how gold is trading on Sunday night and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is heading back towards its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have turned back down and have room to go lower. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 were both up today and I think that bodes well for the bulls moving forward. I'm still leaning bullish here on the market but we may have another week of sideways malaise. I could be wrong and often am. Lately my view on the markets hasn't been accurate. We'll see if it gets any better as we go along in the November option cycle. Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish the week. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend and deciding what to do about the potential GDX November call trade. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Higher today as the market shrugged off overnight bad news. The Dow gained 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The S&P 500 has held its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators appear to be trying to turn back up and they remain mid-range. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward. The market remains hostage to the pandemic, upcoming election and stimulus negotiations. However with plenty of time in the November option cycle, there's no rush to trade. GE was up 3/8 on average volume. Gold dropped back today as the futures fell twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU shed 1 2/3, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares did rebound from their worst levels of the day. My order remains out there for the GDX November calls as todays drop was not enough to trigger it. I do think that GDX will eventually trade higher although we cannot rule out and extended sideways pattern. That's about what we're seeing now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and that coincides with a rise in stock prices. The short term indicators here have rolled over and imply higher prices going forward. If we can get the summation index moving up again, that would be the all clear for a rally. Hasn't happened yet but I do think that it will. May have to wait until after the election though. For now we'll watch and wait for a good signal one way or the other. Europe and Asia were generally lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was an up and down session as the Dow fell 98 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The market is being held hostage by the political drama in Washington. Stimulus or no stimulus, deadlines passed and extended. It's a non stop government soap opera. The S&P 500 technicals are still mid-range so we'll wait to see which way they go. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term. Of course I've been saying that for a week and it hasn't happened. No SPY trades in mind for now. GE lost a couple cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold found a bid as the futures were up around $15. The US dollar continued lower. The XAU rose two points, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume remains light here. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it might be too late. The short term technical indicators for GDX are starting to turn around. This won't be a trade that I chase though. Either my order gets filled where I have it or I'll pass. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with lower prices and that's not the usual reaction either. We did not break the 200 day moving average to the upside here and we are at the top of a trend channel. So my thinking is that we'll be seeing a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward from here. The short term technical indicators have also started to roll over. If we get an announcement of a stimulus deal the market will have an excuse to rally. Hasn't happened yet. For now I'm trying to remain patient as we wait to see what the future holds. Still in the pandemic virus mode along with pre-election angst. We'll have a better picture after November 3rd hopefully. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce today as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Still waiting on a stimulus deal and we should know before the open tomorrow. Todays upside was expected as we did have an oversold signal on one of the technical indicators that's usually reliable. The question now is was it a one day bounce or the beginning of something sustained to the upside? I'm inclined to believe the latter, as I think that some kind of deal will be reached and the market will rally. Just a week ago the talks had supposedly ended but we see where we are now. I guess the Tuesday deadline for the stimulus talks could be extended as well. We're dealing with politicians so you can't really believe anything that you hear. The market is held hostage to this nonsense for now but it too will pass. The S&P 500 technical indicators on a short term basis are mid-range. Could go either way here but I still think that we'll move higher from these levels this week. GE was up a nickel on lighter volume. Gold was up eight bucks as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains pretty light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. I guess the most I can hope for here is that GDX trades sideways for a while and perhaps the order eventually gets filled. Plenty of time in the November option cycle for GDX to get oversold though. That would be the reasonable and ideal time to try the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite a rise in the market again. This has spelled near term trouble for stocks lately but not long lasting. I have no idea what it means this time around. I haven't been able to wrap my head around what the VIX has been doing lately. One day it acts like it should and another it does the opposite. It is short term overbought and I would expect a drop in the VIX and a rise in stock prices in the coming days. That's my best guess right now. However my ideas on the market haven't been exactly correct lately and hence that's why I'm not trading the SPY right now. Not to mention the expanded option premiums due to the extra week in the November cycle. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of announcement we get on the US stimulus package and take it from there.

The Dow fell 410 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to roll over. Worry about a stimulus deal is the excuse for todays sell off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned down and are heading lower. They are mid-range at the moment. I certainly thought that by now we would have turned higher but my read on things here was wrong. I am now getting a buy signal from one of my technical indicators but with so much time left in the November options I'm not going to venture into the SPY calls. Premiums are high for the options. However if a stimulus deal is announced, you can expect quite a short term rally in my view. Conversely if a deal isn't reached, lower prices will ensue. GE was flat on the day and the volume was good. Gold was off a buck or so and the US dollar was lower. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume remains very light. Once again the gold shares are leading the way lower and that's bearish for the precious metals complex. Nonetheless I'm keeping my open order out there for the Novermber GDX calls. If GDX continues to drop it should get filled. Not yet oversold on the short term for GDX but we're getting there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX once again foreshadowed a drop in prices when rising with a rise in equity prices last week. The previous time it led to a quick decline that was not long lasting. It was higher today which fits in with a down market. Just about short term overbought on the indicators there. Combine that with a short term buy signal that I mentioned before and a case can be made for the SPY calls here. I'm not willing to take that chance though. But I would not be surprised if a stimulus deal is reached tomorrow and the market rallies. I would be surprised if some kind of deal isn't reached. We can simply wait and see. There is so much time left on the November options that there will be other opportunities down the road with lower option premiums. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A mixed bag to finish out the week as the Dow gained 112 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ finishing in the red. I do not think that the major averages are putting in a double top here but I could be wrong. The lack of upside follow through from Mondays stellar gains is a concern. However the price action this week could have simply been option expiration driven although we did not see the usual upside bias. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not excessively so. The market does have a lot of noise in the background which probably won't be resolved until after the election. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward unless the summation index starts to fall. GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume. Gold lost a few bucks and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU was off two bucks, while GDX shed about 1/2. Volume was very light. I'm leaving my open order out there for the GDX November calls. I'll revisit this idea over the weekend to see if it is still viable. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow and that has led to lower prices going forward lately. I'm having a hard time figuring this indicator lately. The short term technicals here are still mid-range. Could go either way. An extra week built in to the November options raises the premiums paid. No real rush to do anything as I'm not exactly getting any clear signals. The market isn't fond of unkowns and we've got quite a few at the moment. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and try to figure something out. I am still a believer in the gold share calls. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An interesting session as the Dow lost 20 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. We opened with a huge gap lower and the Dow was off over 300 points. We made our way back for the rest of the trading day. Jobless claims were up a bit and that was the handy excuse for the drop but the market was selling off overnight too. Not seeing the usual upwards bias for option expiration week and I've been waitng for that but it isn't happening. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled over, however I'm convinced that things will turn around and head higher soon. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but the comeback tells me that buyers are out there. We'll see. No SPY trades for now. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well. A flight to safety? I certainly don't know. The XAU was off around 1 2/3, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume remains light. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't bullish. I am leaving my open order out there for the GDX November calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished well off of its highs for the session. The Bollinger bands here are getting closer and a big move in this indicator is implied. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range. So things could theoretically go either way. I'm looking for higher stock prices from here but that's just my point of view. The market will go where it wants to. The overall backdrop remains the same and that probably won't change until after the election. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.

Some more selling today as the Dow fell 165 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. As long as the summation index keeps moving forward, the path of least resistance is higher. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. Not seeing the usual upside bias for expiration week yet or perhaps it got used up on Monday. Not much to report as the backdrop remains the same. New stimulus blabbering back and forth with no resolution. The pandemic virus remains. Upcoming election nonsense with the market pretty sure of a Joe Biden victory. Still overbought on the major stock indices. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold bounced almost $20 on the October futures today as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU added two points, while GDX rose around 2/3. Volume remains light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it already may be too late. The gold shares are acting better than the precious metal and that's our cue to look at the long side. Short term overbought for GDX but if the rally is already in progress that won't matter. The Bollinger bands here are beginning to contract but aren't all the way there yet. Staying patient for now but might have to look elsewhere for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and that fits well for a change. The short term indicators there have turned up but thay look like they want to roll back over already. That would support higher prices. My guess is that whatever selling that we're seeing now will dry up rather quickly and the uptrend in stocks will continue. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Just some profit taking today in my mind as the Dow fell 157 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ was barely negative and that tells us that the decline is not the start of anything big. Still short term overbought for the major averages. It is expiration week which usually has a positive bias. So we'll see if things turn around back to the upside tomorrow and if we can get to new all time highs. GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold got clobbered today and that negates the breakout on Friday above the declining tops line. The precious metal futures were off almost $35 per the October contract. The US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains light here. The gold shares finished well off of their lows for the session. A big drop in gold without a big drop in the gold shares is bullish going forward in my view. I did place an open order for the GDX November calls but it will take more of a decline to get filled. The short term technical indicators for GDX are still overbought so a decline here isn't out of the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the market decline. The indicators here have started to turn back up but not dramatically so. I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now. I do think that we'll head higher into Fridays option expiration. The pandemic virus remains along with the stimulus deal bickering. The market continues to price in a Joe Biden victory. Asia higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market continues to power higher as the Dow gained 250 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is the leader here and that's bullish. We'll see how high things will run up into expiration on Friday. Getting close to new all time highs and at this rate we'll be there this week. Starting to just go straight up though and that never ends well. GE was flat on the day with average volume. Gold and the US dollar finished little changed on the day. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. I've decided against trying the GDX calls this week in the October option cycle. I will attempt them for the November cycle if the opportunity presents itself. I'm still a believer in the gold break out and will wait for the snap back to the breakout line before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not sleeping well. The VIX had a very slight gain but that still does not match up with todays market rally. Back to oversold here on the short term technical indicators. Pretty overbought for some of the S&P 500 indicators but not all. Perhaps we'll pause before getting to new all time highs as the potential double top pattern will appear. But that's just a guess as usual on my part. All indications in my mind are that we're going higher for a while. Earnings season is upon us and the market has made up its mind that Joe Biden is going to win the upcoming election. The pandemic virus remains but it appears that the market has learned to live with that. Europe and Asia were generally higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

No sellers to be found as the Dow rose 161 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that is good news for the bulls. It was a good week for stocks and I think that the run up will continue into option expiration next week. Pricing in a Joe Biden victory and there is still plenty of money to go around. If they ever get a stimulus deal done we'll even go higher. At this rate we'll be hitting new all time highs in no time. Overbought now and staying that way for the major stock averages. GE was up over 1/8 on very heavy volume. Gold took off to the upside today with the futures breaking through the down trend line that has been in effect since August. That is significant and I'll be getting some GDX calls on a snap back to the breakout if we get one. The October gold futures gained $36 as the US dollar got whacked. The XAU was up 6 2/3, while GDX added over 1 3/4. Volume expanded to the upside. I did try to purchase some GDX October calls today but my orders were not filled. Even though there is only a week to go in the October option cycle, todays price action lets you know that the gold shares are on their way up. The picture here has changed. I'm looking out to November as well here and will be buying some calls for that month in the near future. Perhaps as early as Monday if the opportunity presents itself. The original idea here has now been proven to be valid but we could not know for sure until gold broke through the declining tops line. Of course things can change just as quickly the other way around but I do believe what we've seen today for the gold shares is the beginning of a move higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and finally closed below the 50 day moving average. This says that the current rally will have legs and we'll most likely be going higher than anyone expects at the moment. We can also now look back and say that the recent decline was simply a correction in an ongoing bull trend. Once again, declines can be bought. Expiration week is upon us and higher prices are expected. I'll be looking at the SPY October calls over the weekend as well as the GDX calls in hopes of landing an entry point but it may be too late. Plenty to ponder in an effort to find a winning trade. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 122 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought on some of the techncial indicators for the S&P 500 but during rallies we stay that way. Perhaps things will run up into option expiration next Friday. We're still at the mercy of a negative headline but we saw how the market recently handled that. Factoring in a democratic win for the US election is what's going on now according to some circles. The market is always looking ahead. The pandemic virus isn't going away anytime soon though. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was pretty light. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls. With only six days to go in the October option cycle, I'm not sure that I want to try this trade anymore. I may reconsider that but I'm also now looking out to the November option cycle for GDX. I do think that gold has been in a corrective decline before it starts to move back up. The question is how long will that decline take? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. It touched its lower Bollinger band and bounced off. That bounce caused it to close back above the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has held every drop in the VIX since the sharp decline for the market in the beginning of September. We'll see if it holds this time as well. I'm not exactly sure what that means for near term prices in stocks because the short term technical indicators are now moving lower here. I don't have any SPY trades in mind. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We blasted back to the upside today as the Dow gained 530 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher and we'll take our cues from there. I certainly did not expect the market to come back so quick. Declines can be bought. SPY is heading back to the 342 level and it is getting short term overbought. But the market has simply shrugged off yesterdays bad news and we must respect that. So I'm tossing out the idea of trying the SPY puts at 342. That time has come and is gone in my mind. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold stabilized as the futures were up around $10. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains light. I still have my open order for the GDX October calls out there. There's only seven days left in this option cycle. So the risk is certainly out there if the order gets filled. There's also seemingly no interest in the gold shares and that's been going on for a while. I'll consider what to do with this idea tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators are turning back down. That makes sense for a change. It also implies higher stock prices going forward but it won't be a straight line up. It appears that the market is pricing in a Joe Biden victory for the upcoming US presidential election. Who knows, maybe we'll make it back to new all time highs in the next couple of months. I'll be checking out GDX in depth tonight and go from there. Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Headline risk. It's always out there and today we got a taste of it. The Dow fell 375 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Dow was up around 200 points with an hour and a half to go in the trading session. It was an uneventful Tuesday in October. All of a sudden the headline passed on the wire. The US president has canceled the stimulus talks until after the election. The market did not like that and decided to give up all of its gains and then some. I'm not sure how long the drop will last but we'll most likely get some follow through selling in the morning. We now have bearish dark cloud cover on the daily stock index candlestick charts. It is probably too late for the SPY October puts but we'll see. SPY did make it to 342 today but the market was cruising along and I did not want to try the puts. Opportunity missed or so it seems. GE lost 1/4 on heavy volume. Some kind of negative IRS news there. Gold got pummeled after the stimulus was placed on the back burner. The futures fell well over twenty bucks and back below the $1900 level. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 5 3/4, while GDX fell 1 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. I adjusted my open order for the GDX October calls and it hasn't been filled. I'm not sure this is the right trade to do now because the fundamental background has now changed with no stimulus bill in sight. The short term technical indicators have now also rolled over and are heading back down to oversold. Perhaps going out to the November option cycle has a better chance of showing a profit. Or not. I'll check things over again tonight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted. Outside events are creeping in but I'll do my best to focus on what needs to be done here. The VIX was higher today as it should be. Once again the rising VIX yesterday with the rise in market prices preceded a drop. It is simply another reminder that the market knows all. There's still some room on the short term indicators to move up before the VIX is overbought. That means we should see some more weakness in the near future. Of course we could get another headline overnight and things could change again. There's plenty of room in the S&P 500 indicators to move lower though. Perhaps we'll make it back for a test of the recent lows. Or we may just move sideways from here. Maybe the market will simply move back up higher tomorrow from here but I doubt that scenario. If it sounds like there's a lot of uncertainty now, there is. I'll check things again tonight and take it from there. Europe and Asia were higher last night but that will probably change tonight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow took off to the upside to start the week and gained 465 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Declines can be bought in my humble opinion. The US president will be out of the hospitial tonight, so that worry is over for now. However we are always at the mercy of headline risk, sometimes more than others. The short term techncial indicators for SPY are getting overbought but not all the way there yet. 342 is a level to watch at the top of the Bollinger bands. That would be an area to try the October SPY puts but the overall trend is up and it would have to be a quick trade. GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light. Gold found a bid on the weaker US dollar. The yellow metal futures were up around ten bucks. The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX rose 5/8. Volume remains light here. The gold futures are up against a declining tops line and it will take some volume to get through it. I replaced my order for the GDX October calls at a lower strike price. If we get a decline there it may be filled but time is running out for this idea. Trying the SPY October puts may be the next trade that I do instead. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX finished a bit higher despite the rally and that doesn't make sense again here. The short term indicators have turned up but the market is advancing. The last time this happened it led to a decline but it took a while. I'm not getting reliable information from my analysis for the VIX lately. Some economic data due out this week but I think the market is waiting on the next stimulus deal. Perhaps it will be a sell on the news event since we are already moving higher. It could be that the market is now factoring in a Joe Biden victory for the November election. The polls are certainly pointing that way and I'd have to agree. I'm still looking for a winning trade in the October option cycle. It's out there somewhere. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well. Perhaps breathing a sigh of relief. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Headline risk returned as overnight it was reported that the US president had contracted the pandemic virus. The Dow had a huge gap lower at the open and was down over 400 points. It tried to recover throughout the session and finished with a loss of 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is barely moving higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That implies that there is more downside to come. Volatility has taken center stage again. The jobs report was a bit light but it remained in the background. Two weeks to go in the October option cycle and I get the feeling that anything can happen. However the market did hold up as far as the Dow is concerned because things could have been a lot worse. GE was up over 1/8 on average volume. Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was off 1 3/4, while GDX shed around 2/3. Volume remains light. Gold bounced around but could not support a gain despite the new uncertainty thrown into the picture. We could just be stuck in a low volume sideways trend until further notice. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls but may try again next week if we continue to drift lower. Perhaps I'll look out to November but that option cycle has an extra week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and finished in the black but did come off of the best levels for the day. The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up. We are now at the mercy of the US presidents health and there is no predicting how that will go. It would not be out of the question to simply step aside here but I'll be looking for some kind of technical signal to trade off of. The market here to me seems pretty resilient. I'm still a believer for now that the decline is over but a sideways drift isn't out of the question. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 looks like it wants to roll over but the medium term indicators appear to be trying to stabalize and perhaps turn back up. Trading here is choppy and being nimble is probably the best strategy for now. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week. Most of Asia remains on holiday but Japan was lower. Europe finished mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Another back and forth session as the Dow gained 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This should point he summation index higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ way out in front. This is a plus for the bulls. We'll see how things go tomorrow with the jobs report but the technical signs are pointing to higher prices regardless. There's also more talk of getting the stimulus deal done but that hasn't happened yet. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P 500 are still pointing up. The contracting Bollinger bands seem to limit the potential upside here but there is still room to go higher. Of course a big negative session would change the picture. GE was up a penny on average volume. Gold had a good session as the futures rose over $15. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume remains light here and that is not a plus for the gold bulls. With gold up good again and the gold shares languishing here, it isn't a strong environment at the moment. Nonetheless I've left my GDX October call order out there for now. It will still take a decline in GDX to get it filled. But this idea is running out of time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed higher today with a gain in stocks. It's still above the 50 day moving average. I'm not getting a clear picture from the VIX lately. The SPY has almost had a 50% retracement of the decline. Perhaps this is where the recent rally will take a rest. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought though. I do think that the decline has run its course but as I said before that doesn't mean that we'll just go straight up. My indecision as to what to do here has me on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. I'm hoping to get some kind of solid signal before the October option cycle comes to a close. Most of Asia is on holiday for a week and there was an electronic malfunction in Japan that shut things down there yesterday too. Europe was mixed. We'll await the employment report tomorrow morning and see the market reaction is.