More selling today but it could have been worse as the Dow fell 521 points on pretty heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The Dow led things lower today. The inflation data came in a bit higher than expected. A final hour rally kept things from being worse. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to flatten out at the mid-range level. The S&P remains stuck in a trading range. Not sure what's next here as you could make a case either way. Gold was up $86 on the futures today. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. That doesn't really fit with a higher than expected inflation number but the market always knows more than we do. The XAU gained over 7 1/2, while GDX was up 1 7/8. Both hit new all time highs. Volume was still on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought and staying there which occurs during rallies like the one we are seeing now. My GDX March puts are solid losers and I should have just dumped them and taken the loss today. My position is now far out of the money. The only thing is has going for it is plenty of time left until option expiration. But I should be in cut the loss mode. However I never trust light volume rallies and that is what GDX is in. But markets can go on longer than you can stay liquid. Mentally is a little bit of a downer. This GDX put trade was one that perhaps I should not have taken. The gold shares were continuing higher even when gold was just hanging around. The signs were there that the rally could possibly continue and it has. Now I'm holding a losing position over the weekend which clouds my mental view for the next possible trade. The VIX was higher today but closed below 20 and off of the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are trying to move higher. Not sure what's coming next for this indicator. Europe was lower and Asia higher with the exception of India to close the week. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A mixed picture today as the Dow managed a gain of 17 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 had losses, with the NASDAQ down over 1%. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P have now turned lower but it did come up off of the worst levels on the day. End of the month tomorrow and inflation data due. The NASDAQ continues to lag and that is usually not a good sign. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a touch higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU climbed 12 1/4 and GDX was up 2 1/2 to a new all time high. Volume was just below average. The gold shares are leading gold and that is a positive. It appears that my idea for the GDX March puts is not going to work out. GDX is short term overbought and in the midst of a light volume rally. My timing seems to be early here and unless we see some decline in GDX tomorrow this trade will be a loser. It is now posting a modest loss. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but down from the highest levels on the session. The up trend line from January remains in place. The short term indicators for the VIX now look mixed. Asia was lower except for Japan and Europe finished the day up. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows data and take it from there.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 307 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led things higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 had a gap up at the start and continued higher throughout the session. The short term indicators here are pointing up with room to go. The S&P looks like it will hit new all times highs again. However every time we have been in this situation for the past two months, the S&P cannot get through the 7000 level. Will it be different this time around? Stay tuned. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The XAU rose 1 1/8 and GDX added over 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators here are heading sideways with some overbought. GDX finished off of the highs for the day. My open order for the GDX March calls got filled halfway through the session. It is showing a small gain. The idea is to hold this trade until Fridays inflation report or longer depending on the price action. We've have had a light volume return to the recent all time high for GDX. My expectation here is for some kind of pullback based on the technicals. Markets do go where they want however. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped which fits an up market. It is now right on the up trend line that began at the beginning of the year. A break through that line would be positive for stocks and imply that new all time highs are coming. The short term indicators for the VIX are pointing down with room to go. Tomorrow could be a waiting game as the end of the month occurs on Friday. Asia and Europe were up overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Bouncing back today as the Dow was up 370 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. We had an early rally and then traded sideways for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P are back to pointing higher at the mid-range level. So things could still go either way here. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was off forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher as were interest rates. The XAU was up 6 points and GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares continue with better relative performance than the price of gold and that is a plus. I'm still in the camp that favors lower gold prices though and I am leaving my open order for the GDX March puts out there. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall and some have made it to overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. The up trend line that began at the beginning of the year remains in place for the VIX. Not sure what's coming next here. Stocks have been trading sideways since the end of last year. Still waiting to see who wins this battle. For the S&P 500 it's 7000 at the top and 6800 on the bottom. Might have to jump on board once we see a breakout. Asia was mixed and Europe little changed in last nights trade. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Was today a delayed reaction to the tariff ruling? Perhaps, as the Dow lost 821 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Dow was the leader heading south and that's not the worst scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 dropped over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned down. 6800 seems to be the line in the sand for the S&P. A close below there could lead to more selling. Gold was up $168 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates fell. The XAU was up 11 2/3, while GDX gained over 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving higher. Could I be wrong about golds rally being over? Maybe. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself at the moment and that is a positive. GDX is almost back to a new all time high. I did however place an overnight order for the GDX March puts and I'm leaving it out there. If GDX blasts off to a new all time high I'll have to change my thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and is back over the 20 level. The short term indicators here have moved back up. I'm not sure what's next for this indicator. Option premiums are high as we have just moved into the March option cycle. Waiting for a decent signal to trade the SPY options. Inflation data on Friday that I do think will be higher than expected. Asian markets have been returning from holiday. Europe was down and Asia generally higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 230 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. GDX was less than expected and the inflation data came in higher than anticipated. Trumps tariffs were also deemed illegal by the Supreme court. So there was a lot of news to sift through. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and its short term indicators are now moving up. It has me thinking that new all time highs could be back in play perhaps next week. Rolling into the March option cycle now so premiums will be high. Gold was up $110 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates finished basically flat again. The XAU was up 9 points and GDX rose 1 7/8. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators continue higher for GDX. They are not completely overbought but I am looking at the March puts there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down. There is an up trend line for the VIX that comes in at around 17.5. We'll see what happens if it gets back to there. I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some selling today as the Dow fell 267 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to trend higher. The Dow led things lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. The S&P 500 had a small drop today. The short term indicators for the S&P are now stalling just below the mid-range level. My guess is that it will be weak tomorrow for expiration Friday but I'm not making any trades based on that. Waiting for the next signal. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 6 1/3 and GDX rose 1 3/4. Volume remains light here for now. The short term indicators are now moving higher for GDX. I'm still a believer that gold itself has seen its high at around $5600 and won't be getting above that number anytime soon. I'm willing to try the GDX puts again on any short term overbought condition. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher and is back above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are hanging around the mid-range level. Still not sure where it goes from here. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe was down. We'll get inflation data and GDP tomorrow. Expiration Friday on tap.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 129 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending higher. We opened higher, had a sell off in the middle of the day only to jump back up in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way and that is a positive. However I'm not sold on the two day rally continuing. My guess is that the short term buy signal that we got has run its course. I did try to purchase some SPY February calls again this morning but that idea has run its course. I canceled the order. I did take a look at the SPY February puts today but we don't really have a signal for that. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned up at the mid-range level for ones we are looking at. We are back to the sidelines here. Gold was up $99 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 9 3/4, while GDX added 2 1/3. Volume was lighter than average. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up at the mid-range level. GDX is right up against its short term down trend line and if that line holds it would make a case for the GDX puts. But there are only two days left in the February option cycle and I'm not sure it is worth the risk. I'm pretty sure that it isn't. Patience in waiting for the next decent signal is what is required at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. Its short term indicators are pointing lower at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next here as the VIX has been in a steady climb since the beginning of the year. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings headlines.

The short expiration week starts off with some volatility, with a morning decent sell off followed by buying to get back to positive territory. The Dow rose 32 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were sightly positive. The summation index is still trending higher. Most of the major indices posted slight gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trending sideways. We now have a short term buy signal from one of our indicators but it isn't the strongest that we've seen. I did place an overnight order for the SPY February calls but it wasn't filled. I tried to jump in front of the signal and it almost worked. I might try this trade again tomorrow if we see some weakness in the S&P. However this is a short term trade with only three days to go in the February option cycle. Getting filled today would have been a better scenario. I can only make a case for staying in this trade for a day. Gold fell $144 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 13 1/8 and GDX lost 3 3/4. Volume was above average. The gold shares did come up off of the worst levels for the session. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing down at the mid-range level. No GDX option trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling at bit dissatisfied that my overnight order wasn't filled. The VIX was a bit lower today but remains above the 20 level. The short term indicators are still tracking sideways. Not sure where the VIX is heading. I will go over things tonight and decide if the SPY call trade is worth the risk. What was open in Asia finished mixed, while Europe ended the day higher. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Up and down today with not much ground gained or lost when it all was finished. The Dow rose 49 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Inflation data came in a touch lighter than expected. After a brief early dip, stocks spent the first half of the day moving higher and the second half moving lower. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and the S&P 500 finished with the slightest of a gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. We are almost to the point of a short term buy signal on one of our indicators for the S&P but not there yet. It does imply that weakness can be bought on Tuesday but we will have to go over all the charts this weekend to get a better picture. Gold was up $103 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU gained 21 1/2 and GDX climbed 5 1/2. Volume was good heading back to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up at the mid-range level. In retrospect selling the GDX puts yesterday was the right decision. The question now is do we try this trade again with only 4 days left in the February option cycle? It's something to ponder over the next three days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today and is still above the 20 level. Its short term indicators are heading sideways. Not sure where it goes from here. A holiday weekend on tap for the US. Some markets will be closed next week for holidays in Asia. We may perhaps see some thin or skewed trading. I'll be going over things this weekend but any option trade next week would be of high risk with only four days to go before expiration. That said, there will be opportunities. Asia was lower and Europe mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 669 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led that way lower and that continues to be a negative. The TRAN took a big drop today. The S&P 500 fell over 100 points. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with plenty of room to go. It appears that my idea of the S&P hitting a new all time high before option expiration was wrong. But we'll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow with the reaction to the inflation data. Gold got clobbered today as the futures lost $157. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell over 30 points and GDX lost 7 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back lower with room to go. GDX also closed on the low of the day. I decided not to wait until tomorrow and sold the GDX February puts during the trading session. Probably the wrong decision as they increased in value towards the end of the session. The entry on this trade was OK but could have been better. I'm probably a day early on the exit. It was only one session but the negative price action in gold and the gold shares reiterates my belief that we've seen the parabolic top for these segments. Not a great trade but the gain was 140% in a day. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I did not execute the GDX put trade that well. Five days to go in the February option cycle so it is possible that we'll try something else here. A long weekend is coming though and it might be better to sit things out until Tuesday. The VIX jumped as you would expect and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back up with conviction. This implies that we could see more selling early tomorrow morning We'll see. It will probably all depend on the CPI report. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Volatility returned early on today and the Dow fell 66 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ had a slight loss and the S&P 500 was unchanged. The employment report came in better than expected and that got things moving up and down. There was a gap higher at the open which immediately turned around into a modest loss. The rest of the day was spent in a sideways drift. The short term indicators for the S&P have begun to stall. Next up will be the inflation report on Friday to contend with. I still think that the S&P will be hitting a new all time high soon. Gold was up $81 on the futures. The US dollar finished slighly higher and interest rates were up. The XAU gained over 10 points, while GDX added 3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up with room to go. My open order for the GDX February calls was filled. It is showing a modest loss. It now looks like this idea was past its time as the technical picture for GDX appears now to be positive. Perhaps it was one of those ideas that I fell in love with and didn't let go. I would like to give it until Friday before bailing out but we'll have to see how tomorrow goes first. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are moving sideways. Appears as though it could go either way here. The overall technical picture for the stock market is not as clear as I'd like it to be. Six days remain in the February option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Another mixed pictire today as the Dow rose 52 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The market was trending sideways before dropping late in the day. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest losses with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Not exactly sure why the late exit from stocks but perhaps a bit of fear ahead of tomorrows jobs report. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are beginning to stall. I remain in the bullish camp here though and expect new all time highs for the S&P soon. I would change my mind if we see some kind of sharp downside price action tomorrow but I do not think that is in the cards. Gold was off $26 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU added 3 points and GDX was up an 1/8 or so. Volume was light. The gold shares did better than gold itself and we haven't seen that lately. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall at mid-range. I did place an order overnight for the GDX February puts again and I'm leaving it out there. Not sure it will get filled as there is a very wide spread in the strike price that I'm trying to buy. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today and that fits with todays overall price action. The short term indicators here didn't move much. It's all about the employment report tomorrow. I don't know what to expect from that but the market reaction will tell the story. Asia was up and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments ahead of tomorrows data.

We did see some upside follow through to Fridays huge gains but the Dow only managed a gain of 20 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move higher. The NASDAQ was by far the leader today and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 is poised to make a new all time high. The short term indicators there are now trending higher with room to go. Plenty of earnings and economic data due this week so there will be excuses for market movement. I'm in the bullish camp for now regarding the S&P. Gold was up $123 on the futures to close back above the $5000 level. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU gained almost 23 points and GDX was up 5 1/2. Volume was above average to the upside. Has the decline for gold and the gold shares ended already? That is the question we are dealing with. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher with room to go. I'm still considering the GDX February puts and will think about putting in a overnight order for them. But we also have to consider the possiblity that the sharp decline we saw a week ago may be it for the downside as the parabolic move higher stalled. As usual the trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here are trending lower and not yet oversold. The VIX seems to be supporting higher stock prices going forward for now. Asia and Europe were higher to begin the week as global funds return to stocks. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Stocks exploded to the upside today with the Dow closing above the 50000 level for the first time. The Dow gained 1207 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index has now turned back up but is still in a sideways configuration. Yesterday looked like the market was going to fall apart and today it seems there is no stopping it to the upside. Perhaps the idea of the SPY calls was simply a day too early. However we are always wary when rallies appear out of nowhere, especially in what was considered a weak market. The Dow was the best performer today but all the major indices had stellar gains. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We are going to have to look things over this weekend to decide where we're going next. Gold was up $87 on the futures. The US dollar was weaker and interest rates finished flat. The gold shares followed the overall market higher. The XAU gained 19 1/4, while GDX added 5 points. Volume was lighter than it has been. The short term indicators for GDX are still in oversold territory but they are trying to move up. I'm still considering trying the GDX February puts but this will also be something that needs a closer look over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank with the rise in stocks and is back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are moving down. It could be that the decline for stocks is over for now but we'll know more about that in the coming week. We'll get the late jobs report and some inflation data. There will be plenty of charts to check over this weekend as we try and figure out the next trade. Still two weeks to go in the February option cycle less one day for a holiday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish off the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers have taken control as the Dow fell 593 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move lower. Not sure what's going on here but we cannot argue with price. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative which it has been for a while. I was leaning towards the SPY calls but that thought was wrong. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving down and it closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term up trend line here has now been broken. Things could get ugly before they get better. Gold dropped $118 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped in a flight to bonds. The gold shares got whacked. The XAU fell almost 25 points and GDX lost6 1/3. Volume remains heavy. It appears that the early week bounce for the gold shares is all that we are going to get, which makes it too late for the GDX February puts. Unless we see some kind of dramatic turnaround higher tomorrow in the precious metals. Some of the gold stocks have already lost over 20%. Looks like just another missed opportunity. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above the 20 level. Volatility has returned. The short term indicators here are now moving up with conviction and are almost short term overbought. Lower stock prices seem to be the future going forward. Perhaps we'll look for a bounce out of nowhere to try the SPY puts but it is most likely too late for that. We never got a clear signal for direction but the action of the market recently was puzzling. We now know it was a precursor to lower prices. Tomorrow should be interesting. Asia and Europe were genrally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 260 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move with the next two sessions and todays drop in the NASDAQ qualifies that. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses on the session, with the NASDAQ once again leading the way lower. It is hard to have a positive outlook going forward with the NASDAQ down in the dumps. The short term indicators for the S&P are still trending lower and are at the mid-range level. Sellers have the upper hand for now. Gold was up $29 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat again. The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume remains good here. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to trend sideways. We still like the idea of trying the GDX February puts going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today. The indicators here are still tracking higher but without any conviction. Got above the 20 level again but then fell back. Again, we are getting a mixed picture from the indicators when it applies to the SPY right now so we are waiting for a solid signal one way or the other. There is still plenty of time in the February option cycle to put on a trade with regards to the SPY. Remaining patient for now. I'm leaning towards the calls. Asia and Europe were higher except for the NIKK and the DAX. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

We had the return of volatility today as the Dow fell 166 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It was a one day downside reversal for most indices as stocks opened higher and closed lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 dropped almost sixty points. The short term indicators there are now moving lower. It did bounce off of the 50 day moving average though. I do not think we are in for a big drop here right away but I could be wrong. We are still waiting for a signal to trade the SPY options. Gold had a much needed bounce today as the futures gained $310. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU rose over 17 1/2, while GDX added 4. Volume remains pretty heavy here. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have begun to turn up. This is a start to the bounce we are looking for in order to try and get the GDX February puts again. Ideally this would occur at around the 105 level for GDX if it can make it back that far. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today before falling back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here are now pointing higher. It appears that volatility has made a comeback which means that the trading has to be quite nimble to be successful. I don't have a good handle on the SPY right now so we will have to sit things out there. I do favor the GDX puts again at some point before the February option expiration. However we will remain patient for now. Asia was higher and Europe slightly lower overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Higher prices to begin the week as the Dow gained 515 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. The Dow led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted modest gains. Most of the short term indicators remain overbought for the S&P. Not sure where it is heading next but it is on the cusp of a new all time high. We were waiting for Fridays jobs report but it now is delayed due to another Federal government shut down. Not sure when it will be coming out. Waiting on the next signal for trading the SPY options. Gold dropped $62 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/4. Volume remains heavy here. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving down with some already oversold. We are waiting for a bounce in the gold shares to try the GDX February puts. The gold shares lost around 17% from the high to the low in two days to end last week. Hoping for some kind of bounce off of that but we may just see a grind lower as well. Not expecting gold itself to make it back the the all time high anytime soon. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators here are now heading down. This would bode well for stocks in the near term but we'll have to wait and see. Really need to see the NASDAQ get going to the upside for the bulls to be in charge. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.