Heading lower today as the Dow lost 302 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ only down 25 points.  The tech sector is holding up the NASDAQ and as long as that prevails I doubt we'll see any huge declines.  My open orders for the SPY May puts didn't get filled but I still like this idea if we get a light volume rally in the next couple of sessions from here.  I've canceled the orders and will try again if I think that idea still has merit.  The new weekly claims for unemployment remain in the millions.  The pandemic virus remains.  The countrywide lockdown is lifting sporadically.  I do think that the rally is on its last legs but the market always knows more than me.  GE was up 1/4 on pretty heavy volume.  Gold dropped $30 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 3/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  Up trend lines from March have now been broken in the gold shares.  The short term technical indicators have started to turn down as well.  I do not think that we'll get completely oversold here but this will give an opportunity to try the gold share calls again.  No doubt I like the June option cycle here and perhaps a short term trade for May.  I don't want to be too early but if GDX gets back to 31, I may try something there.  Another day like today would do it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a small spike up today but the price action on the S&P wasn't as negative as I would have liked to see.  That said, I still may try the SPY May puts tomorrow or Monday depending on price action.  I'm not exactly sure if the 5th and final wave higher is completed for most of the major stock averages.  Ideally a light volume rally into Monday would set up the May put trade nicely but the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans.  I'll check things out tonight and try to come up with the proper trading strategy from here.  Beginning of a new month tomorrow.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

The market powered higher today as the Dow gained 532 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were around 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The 1st quarter GDP report was negative and the market didn't care.  Earnings reports were lackluster and the market shrugged it off.  The Fed kept rates where they are and promised to do whatever it takes to keep the economy going.  Which basically means printing more money.  I was looking for some selling but I was wrong.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY May puts and replaced it at a higher strike price.  I still think that this rally is on its last legs as we have remained overbought for weeks on some of the short term technical indicators.  Now I might change my mind overnight but some of my work says we're at a near term top.  GE lost almost 1/4 on extremely heavy volume.  No good earnings news to report there.  Gold bounced around and finished with a slight gain on the session.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX rose almost 1/4.  Volume was light.  It appears that the consolidation in the gold shares is done and they are poised to go higher.  They too are overbought now for an extended period of time.  Perhaps I should keep my focus here instead of the SPY.  That said, we are pretty far away from the 50 day moving average for GDX and a revision to the mean there is inevitable at some point.  Money does continue to flow into the gold stocks though and I cannot ignore that fact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and continues lower.  This particular condition will not last forever either.  The McClellan oscillator is also very overbought now in the short term.  But I can't ignore the fact that the market continues to power higher and the Fed has provided the liquidity to keep things going.  The market will go where it wants regardless of what I might think it should do.  I also do think that the S&P 500 is in the 5th and final wave up from the low in March.  The S&P also closed right near the final Fibonacci retracement level.  However other indices such as the NASDAQ have already blown by their retracements.  I also don't want to be guilty of just putting on a trade for trading sake because I haven't made one in a couple of weeks.  I'll consider everything again overnight.  Europe and Asia were higher last night as money flows into stocks around the world for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight news.  

We were positive for much of the session but the market dropped hard in the final half hour.  The Dow lost 32 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive though.  The summation index continues higher.  It was a one day reversal for most of the major indexes as we opened much higher but closed lower.  The overall market was lower than the Dow.  My open order for the SPY May puts wasn't filled.  We did make it to the 291 level on the SPY, which is the final retracement target.  At this point I'll simply have to wait and see if there's any upside tomorrow and the order may get filled.  I'm looking for lower prices though as the GDP report will not be good.  We'll get the Fed announcement later in the day.  Combine those events with plenty of earnings and it has the potential to be quite a trading day.  GE gained over 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Gold finished slightly lower and came up off of its worst levels of the day.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX once again had slight fractional moves one way of the other on light volume.  I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls.  The pattern on GDX looks just the same as it did a couple weeks ago.  A rise followed by a sideways consolidation before heading higher again.  This implies another leg up coming soon but the options already seem to be pricing this in.  GDX remains overbought on a short term basis all the way around the indicators.  It's probably best at this point to wait for at least some kind of pullback before trying the calls here again.  The problem with that strategy is that in this kind of bull run for gold, you don't necessarily get the pullback that you're waiting for.  So that's where I'm at regarding the GDX calls at the moment.  I'm considering going out to the June contract but that has its own problems, with higher premiums the main obstacle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced off of its lower Bollinger band today and we saw a decline in equity prices.  That fits the plan.  I suppose that I'll hope for a little sideways movement in this indicator with a rise in equity prices to get my SPY May put order filled.  However hope is not a trading strategy.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and a decline is imminent in my view.  It will probably manifest itself tomorrow on the weak GDP number.  We'll see.  If for some reason we don't see a drop tomorrow, then perhaps I'll have a chance to purchase some index puts before the end of the week.  The game is never easy.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

A nice burst higher to begin the week as the Dow climbed 358 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Not sure why we had a rally today as none of the news has changed.  I did place an open order for some SPY May puts as we are just about at the final frontier on the retracement of 291.  I'm not sure the price I have will get filled so I may have to adjust things tomorrow.  I'd like to own the puts ahead of the 1st quarter GDX report due on Wednesday.  What was interesting about these options today was that the price didn't move when when the index went up.  Still short term overbought for SPY.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold lost around $10 on the futures while the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The gold shares have buying no matter what and they are in a confirmed up trend.  Every attempt to go lower is met with buyers.  I do still have an open order out there for the GDX May calls.  I think about just buying some without regards for the technical indicators but I simply can't do that.  These stocks have to take some kind of break soon after such an extended run up don't they?  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The VIX is at 33 and just about to touch its lower Bollinger band at around 31.  To me that's an obvious spot to try the SPY outs.  Oversold here on the technical indicators as well.  I think it's worth a shot and I'll probably try and buy something tomorrow.  Plenty of earnings due out this week but my focus is on the 1st quarter GDP and the market reaction to that.  I think it will be negative.  We also have the Fed meeting and announcement this week.  However the Fed in my mind has done about all it can do at this point.  I think they will be a non event this time around.  I could be wrong.  Some states are having limited openings of business throughout the country but most remain in lockdown mode.  The pandemic virus isn't going away anytime soon and the US economy is not about to come roaring back.  I think that the market is getting ahead of itself here but that's just my view.  This hasn't been a broad rally by any means, with just a few big tech names driving things higher.  So we'll see where things go from here.  Europe and Asia were higher as money is heading into stocks around the world.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The Dow added 260 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I had thought we would be heading lower today but was wrong once again.  The S&P 500 closed above its 50 day moving average and the short term technical indicators moved back up.  I'm still not convinced that this is a rally that can go much further.  But you have to listen to price and if we make a new recovery high here soon perhaps my thinking is wrong.  It seems to me that there are a lot of headwinds for the market to contend with at the moment.  We'll see how it goes next week.  GE was off 1/4 on very heavy volume.  Gold fell as profits were taken in my opinion.  The futures lost about $8 and the US dollar was lower on the day.  The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was average.  Any selling in the gold shares finds buyers before the end of the day.  Overbought and staying that way for quite an extended period.  I'm thinking that I should just buy some GDX May calls because it doesn't seem like there will be any sustained selling.  It is a dangerous way to think but in todays environment, gold is king.  There's also no overhead resistance for GDX until we reach 40.  Right now it's at 34.  Yes the options are pricey but there's still three weeks to go in the May option cycle.  I really do not like to chase things though.  I still have an open order out there for the GDX May calls but it would take quite a drop to get it filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a pretty good drop today and it rolled all of the short term technical indicators back down.  I'm now thinking of trying the SPY May Puts if the VIX reaches its lower Bollinger band at the 31 level.  Just a thought for now, I'll have to research it over the weekend.  I guess the one thing that we certainly know for sure is that gold and the gold shares are in an uptrend.  I suppose I should probably just jump on board there.  It's another thing to ponder over the weekend.  The pandemic virus remains the key story and that is not about to change.  Europe and Asia were generally lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An interesting session as most indices opened higher and then gave up their gains during the rest of the day.  The Dow rose 39 points on heavier volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.    Most of the major indexes now have bearish stars on their daily candlestick charts.  This implies lower prices going forward but a decent up day tomorrow would negate that.  Still waiting on the next bailout from Congress but it's assumed to be a done deal.  Still short term overbought on the major averages.  GE was up almost a dime on OK volume.  Gold rallied another $15, while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU was up over 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume picked up a little on the rise.  However there are bearish evening stars on the daily candlestick charts here as well.  Coming after the recent gains that we've had, these stars certainly look legitimate.  Not to mention being very overbought here for an extended period of time.  But markets go where they want and can remain overbought for quite some time.  I'm still bullish the May GDX calls if we get a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is still hanging around its 50 day moving average.  Tomorrow should be interesting because if we do close lower it could show a turnaround on the weekly charts.  That would have bearish implications.  I'm really still in the bear camp for the overall market.  The pandemic virus shows no signs of going away anytime soon.  Unemployment keeps on rising by huge numbers.  Earnings for many companies just won't exist.  I simply do not see a quick turnaround for the global economy.  But I could be wrong and often am.  We've had a breakout in the gold shares.  There is no doubt about that.  A pause here is needed though in my opinion to shake some of the players out and get back closer to the 50 day moving average on a daily basis.  I still see any decline as a reason to buy though because there is plenty of money flowing into this market.  It doesn't matter if you like gold or not, the trend is up and there are plenty of buyers.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 450 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should edge the summation index higher.  No real news today to cause the market upside although there was yet another stimulus bill going forward in the US.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P turned back up but we do remain below the 50 day moving average here.  The market is trying to make up its mind what to do here.  Another leg higher would complete an A-B-C-D-E pattern and be a reason to try the SPY May puts.  But we haven't completed the pattern, which would require a run towards the 3000 level.  GE was off a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold continues to shine and the futures gained well over thirty bucks.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  the XAU climbed 6 3/4, while GDX gained almost 2.  Volume was average.  We are breaking out above the resistance at 32 for GDX.  This should lead to more gains.  I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls and moved up to a higher strike price in an effort to take part in this rally.  I am kind of trying to chase it here but am worried about the extended short term overbought condition on GDX.  There is no doubt however that gold and the gold shares are in an up trend with few sellers when there is any decline.  Buyers step up on dips.  GDX had a consolidation at around 30 to 31 and has broken out.  The up trend line from the middle of March remains intact.  It has been quite a move with prices doubling in just over a month.  But I do believe that there's more to go.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is back below its 50 day moving average and the indicators have turned back down.  I'm not doing a good job of reading this indicator lately.  The overall market did remain stronger than the Dow today and that is a plus for the bulls.  We'll get jobless claims tomorrow and that should be some more bad news for the market to digest.  I'll be keeping an eye on GDX though and trying to get involved with some May calls there.  Asia was slightly lower and Europe up overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The decline continues as the Dow fell 631 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now starting to stall at the zero line.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  Perhaps the rally has ended as the short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major averages.  We should know by the end of the week.  The oil market has collapsed and that isn't being viewed as a good thing.  Some of the up trend lines from the end of March have been broken in the major averages.  I'd expect lower prices are coming but in this market, who knows?  GE was off a few cents and volume was lighter than it's been.  Gold was off over $10 and the US dollar was a bit higher on todays session.  The XAU lost 1 1/8 while GDX had a fractional drop.  Volume was light again.  The fact that the gold shares continue to hold up despite a drop in gold is bullish.  There is no widespread selling and buyers are stepping in on any drop.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX May calls out there.  The premiums are still very high here though.  My guess is that we'll be breaking through the 32 level in GDX sometime soon.  I hope to have a bullish position on when that occurs.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a slight bump up today and closed above the 50 day moving average.  There is plenty of room for the technical indicators on the VIX to continue to rise.  It is probably too late to try the SPY puts for May but the premiums do remain sky high.  There is plenty of time left in the May option cycle but it appears that the ideal time for the puts has passed.  Of course things could turn right back up tomorrow but I do believe that the steam is coming out of the recent rally.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  The pandemic virus remains and the economic numbers that will be coming out will not be good.  Combine that with earnings numbers that will miss by a lot and that isn't the recipe for the bulls in theory.  I do like the price action in the gold shares and do believe that my next trade will be on the long side there.  As always the timing of the entry comes first and then the management of the trade follows.  But for now, patience.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight as the selling in stocks is worldwide at the moment.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Lower today as the Dow fell 592 points on heavy volume but lighter than what we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues moving up.  Nothing new in the news with the exception of oil coming under intense pressure.  Plenty of supply with no demand there.  The Dow was much weaker than the overall market as well.  The S&P remains short term overbought and I'll consider the SPY May puts if we can move back up towards the 290 level there.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold bounced back a dozen and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was very light.  I did place an open order for the May GDX calls but it will take some selling to get this filled.  GDX too remains short term overbought.  With the ongoing pandemic virus, I don't see any signs of wholesale selling for gold in the near future.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back above its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up.  So there is a chance that perhaps we'll see some weakness for stocks in the near term.  However the NASDAQ remains a leader and with that being the case I don't expect any extended drop for equities right away.  But that's just a guess as usual.  We still have plenty of lousy earnings coming in the next few weeks.  There is also plenty of time in the May option cycle as it has just begun.  So probably being patient now is the prudent thing to do.  I'm hoping for a run to 290 on the SPY but the market rarely cooperates with anybodies plans.  I suppose it's just watch and wait for me at this point.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 704 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We had a nice gain from the start and then climbed to double that in the final hour.  Opening back up the US for business was the excuse for todays rally but that hasn't even happened yet.  The Dow was the leader today, with the NASDAQ gaining less than half as much percentagewise.  So we may not be out of the woods yet but it is looking more and more like a V bottom.  The last Fibonacci retracement comes in around 2940 for the S&P 500.  We are a little over 50 points away from that.  That is the area if you are inclined to try the SPY May puts.  GE was up 5/8 on pretty heavy volume.  A potential double bottom is in here.  Gold got hammered as the stock market rallied.  The precious metal futures dropped forty bucks and closed below the $1700 level.  The gold shares sold off but finished above their worst levels on the day.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX dropped a point.  Volume was very light compared to what we've seen lately.  Light volume on the decline is bullish for the gold shares, along with a slight drop there compared with the price of gold.  Traders did not want to exit their positions here despite the drop in gold.  That could all change on Monday but I'll take it as a positive for my idea about the GDX May calls.  GDX does remain overbought though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is still below its 50 day moving average and continues to be oversold.  I do believe at some point during the May option cycle this indicator will start to rise coinciding with a drop in the stock market.  Of course I'd like to own the SPY puts if and when that happens.  Entry timing will be the key but the option premiums do remain very overpriced in the current market environment.  The pandemic virus isn't going away but the market seems to know something that we don't.  It looks like all the money the Fed and Congress is sloshing around is making its way into stocks.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but the trend is up until proven otherwise.  The angle of ascent is pretty steep though and cannot go on indefinitely.  However with the NASDAQ leading the way, you kind of have to be a believer in this rally.  But as we've seen before sometimes things can change very quickly in this game.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  Europe and Asia rallied to finish the week too.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.   

The Dow was lower for much of the day but did manage to eke out a gain of 33 points on good volume but lighter than we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to move up.  Jobless claims remained in the millions today and we sold off early after opening higher.  The market went back and forth much of the session.  The NASDAQ and the S&P were very much stronger than the Dow.  My thought was today would be a negative session and it wasn't.  We are still at the mercy of the pandemic virus and there is no change there.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now but I am favoring the puts going forward.  The option premiums remain elevated though.  GE was down another 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  We are just about at the March lows here.  Gold was a bit lower on the futures with the US dollar higher again today.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was light.  I'm looking at the May GDX calls but will wait until at least next week to purchase them.  Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains clinging to its 50 day moving average and continues to be oversold.  I'll be looking for a rise in the VIX and a decline in the overall market during the May option cycle.  That's my prognosis at the moment.  The economic data should continue to be weak.  The current earnings season should disappoint to say the least.  I still like the gold shares but they are certainly due a rest.  The money flow into gold has been pretty consistent and I don't see that stopping anytime soon as long as the pandemic is at the forefront.  Option premiums do remain high though.  I'm going to let tomorrow pass and take it from there.  Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow on options expiration Friday.

The Dow fell 445 points on heavy volume.  We were off over 700 at one point.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  As expected the economic data out today was very weak.  The pandemic virus will be affecting whatever is being reported by the government and individual companies.  The market reaction was negative from the start but not as bad as it could have been.  My SPY April puts showed a decent profit early on.  However as the day progressed the market moved back up.  Combine that with the time and volatility premium getting sucked out of the options as the day went on and my overall results were not as good as planned.  I did have a stop loss order in for the SPY trade that I adjusted upward and it was hit.  The gain was 45% but it easily could have been double that had I realized what was going on.  The decline was weak as it was not being led by the NASDAQ.  We started to reverse back up mid-morning and that should have been my cue to dump the trade.  Especially with only two days to go before expiration.  I would have been better off not having the stop loss order in because I could have gotten more out of the trade if I held it until the close.  Once again my trading tactics were not up to par during the heat of the battle.  Good entry on this trade back a lousy exit once more.  I did not want to hold the trade for another day with the way the market action was intra-day.  But I would not be surprised if we are lower again tomorrow.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was heavy.  Gold lost $25 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  If we're lucky, gold will move back down to the neckline breakout point and we'll get a chance to try the GDX May calls.  The XAU fell almost 2 points, while GDX shed 5/8.  Volume was light and the gold shares climbed back from their lowest levels of the day.  I do like the GDX May calls for the next trade if the short term technical indicators can work off some of their overbought condition.  The gold shares have moved pretty far in a hurry and do deserve a rest in my opinion.  That said, if GDX can clear the 32 level there is no overhead resistance after that until it reaches 40.  Mentally I'm feeing disappointed in the SPY trade that I closed out today.  I guess I just wasn't ready for the speed of trading the SPY, especially with only 3 days remaining in the option cycle of a volatile market.  I just wasn't up to the challenge.  No excuses here though.  Trading isn't easy and that's part of the reality of the game.  My exit tactics for the two trades were the opposite of what they should have been.  I was quick to exit on the GDX trade when I should have taken my time and I took my time on the SPY trade when I should have been quick to exit.  I guess you can't do any worse than that.  At least the entries were somewhat OK or I probably would have lost money on them.  The VIX was a bit higher and is now hanging around its 50 day moving average.  The short term indicators remain oversold.  We should see a decent decline again when the indicators start to move back up.  With only a couple of days left in the week I suppose I'll be watching and waiting.  The risk of attempting another trade this week may not be worth it.  Plus the short term trading really isn't my strong suit.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight and we should see more selling there tonight.  We'll see what the market has in store for us tomorrow.  

The Dow gained 559 points on heavy volume but lighter than we've seen lately.  Perhaps things will be getting back to normal.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Less fear of the pandemic virus seems to be happening now as the earnings coming out are less than expected.  The market took off from the open and closed near the high of the day.  I did purchase some SPY April puts today.  This trade is fraught with risk and is already showing a small loss.  With only three trading days to go in the April option cycle perhaps this wasn't one of my best ideas.  It will all depend on the reaction to the economic data out tomorrow morning.  The S&P is overbought but could stay that way because after all it is option expiration week.  The stop loss order for this trade is already in.  GE was off almost a dime and the volume was heavy.  Gold finished down over $5 after being higher earlier on the futures.  It was a one day reversal to the downside for gold.  The US dollar was lower on the session.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX finished little changed.  Both gold share indexes finished off of their highs for the day.  I sold the GDX April calls I had early in the trading day.  Once again the exit was lousy as I could have made more by holding them a while longer and being patient.  But for whatever reason I just wanted to get out.  The profit was 330%.  My entry on this trade was a day late or the profits would have been much better.  The exit wasn't good either.  However I am thinking that today was probably the best time to get of this trade, we'll know more as the week goes on.  I am already looking at the GDX May calls which I'll purchase if we get a trip back to the breakout point or short term oversold.  It's also possible that gold just continues higher from here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated once again as my trading tactics leave much to be desired.  The SPY trade may just be a reach and the closed out GDX trade should have been a lot more profitable.  The VIX closed below its 50 day moving average and is extremely oversold on a couple of its short term technical indicators.  I was looking for a bounce higher at the 50 day here and it didn't happen.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow today as well so maybe my idea of a decline right now is simply wrong.  The NASDAQ is leading the way and has already closed above its 50 day moving average.  If the S&P follows suit the SPY April put trade will be a loser.  It will all get figured out tomorrow most likely.  I'm already thinking that I probably should have just taken my profit form the GDX trade and called it a day.  But there's no room for regret in this game.  You've got to keep moving on.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight and I'd expect more of the same tonight following the US markets lead.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Lower to begin options expiration week as the Dow dropped 328 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow was off around 700 at one point during the session.  The NASDAQ was up on the day which gives some hope to the bulls.  I am thinking about getting some SPY April puts on any strength tomorrow.  We have reached the short term overbought level on some of the technical indicators for the S&P 500.  I'm expecting that the economic data due out on Wednesday will be negative.  So there is perhaps a technical and fundamental reason to try this trade.  Or perhaps I'm just anxious to make a trade but I doubt that since I'm already in the GDX April calls.  I'll mull it over tonight.  GE was of 1/8 on good volume and also came off of its lows.  Gold continues higher, with the futures up over ten bucks.  The US dollar finished barely changed.  The gold shares were up as well with the XAU gaining 7, while GDX rose over 1 3/4.  Volume was good.  My GDX April calls are showing a profit.  I should probably sell them tomorrow because we have remained overbought here.  Gold and the gold shares have broken out from their reverse head and shoulders patterns on good volume.  That lets you know that the breakout is for real.  It won't last forever though and we'll look to a snap back to the breakout point to try the GDX May calls.  That snapback may or may not happen though, which makes the trading tricky as usual.  But that will be the game plan for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is practically on its 50 day moving average and should get there tomorrow on any upside.  Oversold here and staying that way for now.  I haven't exactly read this indicator correctly lately but I do think that the 50 day moving average would be a good place for the VIX to turn around if we are indeed in a bear market.  However it is possible that we're in a V shaped recovery for stocks and if that's the case the VIX will stay oversold for an extended period of time.  The pandemic virus remains at the forefront and doesn't appear to be going anywhere soon.  The Fed and the US government has thrown plenty of money around here and that seems to be what is keeping the market up for now.  Certainly economic activity has come to a standstill in most cases.  Upcoming earnings will no doubt be full of downside surprises.  So I really don't think that the current rally will have any staying power.  Whether or not things drop before expiration on Friday is another story.  Asia was mixed and Europe up overnight but some markets were closed.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

The Dow climbed another 285 points today on the once again insane volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The McClellan oscillator readings are sky high and normally would imply a buy spike for stocks.  That would imply a longer term rally.  However it has moved so far, so fast, that I don't really know what to make of it.  We have gone form the very extremes of oversold to the exact opposite on this indicator.  So these aren't exactly what you'd call normal market times.  Millions more claims for unemployment today but the market didn't care.  We did make it to the 2800 level and then some on the S&P 500.  It is as if the pandemic virus doesn't matter anymore.  I did not buy the SPY April puts.  Yes we are overbought but the momentum is staggering considering the economic backdrop in my opinion.  2900 is the last Fibonacci retracement level and that is my next target for a short.  However I'm sure I'm not the only one looking at this and the option premiums remain overpriced.  Perhaps looking at the May SPY puts is the proper strategy now.  GE was off over 1/8 and volume picked up.  Gold soared as the futures gained $55 on the June contract.  It also broke through the inverse head and shoulders neckline, with a price objective that is much higher.  The US dollar was down on the session.  The XAU was up 8 1/2, while GDX added 2 3/4.  Volume was good but not extremely heavy.  The gold shares also broke through on the necklines of their inverse head and shoulders patterns.  I decided to chase this move higher on the breakout.  It isn't something that I normally do.  I bought some GDX April calls.  They are showing a profit as I was able to pick some up during the session and not at the highs.  GDX is already overbought and I'll have to hope that it stays that way for a few days.  There is plenty of money flowing into the gold shares but I'm sure that won't last forever.  If we do see a snap back towards the neckline, which is possible, then I will go out to the May calls here.  The breakout of the neckline here is targeting much higher prices and higher than I think it will actually go.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is just about at its 50 day moving average.  That is the spot that I had targeted to get some SPY puts but now I'm hesitating.  Being in the GDX call trade may be all I can pay attention to for the best results.  That said, I will go over all my work during the long weekend and try and come up with a strategy for the SPY.  My guess is that this is a bear market rally because I do not see how the market can continue to rise with horrible earnings about to be reported.  But the market goes where it wants.  I was surprised by the amount of volume that we saw today.  The liquidity problems of a couple weeks ago have disappeared.  Have they gone away for good?  Time will tell on that but the Fed does have the money printing presses going at full speed.  Only a week left in the April option cycle.  I don't think that anyone will be selling their gold shares right away but I could be wrong.  Money seems to be flowing into the precious metal with no end.  But you have to be careful since things can change on a dime in this game.  If a trade becomes too popular it has a tendency to go the other way.  We cannot ignore the bullish pattern breakout though.  I'll look things over this weekend and try to come up with a strategy for next week.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Thursday afternoon ahead of a long weekend.  Time for a break. 

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 772 points on heavy volume but lighter than what we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were around 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  We are back to the 2750 level on the S&P 500, which was the stopping point yesterday.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  I would like to try the SPY April puts but also know we could continue to run here.  2800 would be a 50% retracement and if the VIX reaches its 50 day moving average if we get to 2800, then I'll try the SPY puts.  If not I'll simply continue to stay on the sidelines.  Tomorrow is the last day of a holiday shortened trading week and I would expect many to be leaving early or not showing up at all.  That could skew the trading.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume.  GDX is stalling at its 50 day moving average.  There are not a lot of sellers here though as the light volume indicates.  Overbought for GDX though and I'm going to try and wait for it to get oversold before trying the May calls.  That may or may not happen though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is close to hitting its 50 day moving average and another day or two like today will put us there.  That will make things interesting in my mind as I will probably attempt trading the SPY April puts.  Only six days to go in the April option cycle.  A light volume rally tomorrow would be the ideal scenario to set this trade up.  But the market rarely, if ever, cooperates.  The risk is also pretty good with little time remaining and option premiums still overpriced due to the recent volatility.  I'd also like to try the GDX calls again at some point.  But volume has dried up there for now and it appears that sideways is going to be the trend there for now.  That would certainly help the option writers, as most of the premiums would continue to lose value as time goes on.  Those who purchased expecting the huge moves that we've seen recently in GDX to continue would be paying the price.  I'm trying to remain patient there for now.  Europe and Asia were both generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow and many of the major stock indexes.  The Dow lost 26 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were less than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Early on the Dow sported a 900 point gain.  So you can see that selling took up most of the day.  It looks like 2750 is the near term top for the S&P 500.  If we get back there it's the spot to try the SPY April puts.  May already be too late though.  That trade is on my radar but the premiums remain pretty stiff.  We are short term overbought on some of the technical indicators for the S&P.  GE lost twenty cents with a downside reversal as well.  Gold followed suit as well, opening higher and closing lower.  The futures there fell around $10 after being much higher earlier.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Ideally I'd like to see the gold shares pull back here and then take a position in the GDX May calls.  Markets rarely cooperate though.  Overbought here as well on some of the short term technical indicators.  GDX remains on the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts.  A problem here is that I'm seeing this pattern discussed in the media when it comes to gold.  Sometimes when everyone sees and starts talking about the same thing it doesn't come to fruition.  I guess I'd like to see another right shoulder form here to scare off some of the participants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was only up slightly today and we still haven't made it down to the 50 day moving average.  Oversold here now but there is a chance that it simply stays that way.  Or not.  I'm having a tough time figuring out what this indicator is doing lately.  We now have bearish candlesticks on the daily charts of most of the major stock indices.  This implies some near term weakness.  there's only a couple of days left in this weeks trading.  Thursday could be an out the door early affair as well before a long weekend.  The market is still at the mercy of the next pandemic virus headline, either good or bad.  We are seeing the summation index and other technical indicators coming up off of extremely oversold readings and that's a plus.  Perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for in the near term as well because the market really seemed to run out of gas today.  There is still plenty of money to go around again as far as I can tell.  The liquidity problems that caused the recent massive selling have ebbed for now.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

The market powered to the upside in this shortened trading week as the Dow soared 1627 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  Hopes that the pandemic virus is beginning to stabilize was the excuse for the rally.  But there is no actual confirmation of this.  The market runs on fear and greed.  Today greed had its day at the plate.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock averages but there's still room to go a bit higher in the near term.  Perhaps I'll consider some SPY April puts if we get to 2700 on the S&P.  Definitely will consider some if we make it to the 50% retracement level of 2800.  The liquidity problems that were apparent just a little while ago seem to have evaporated.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold surged higher as the futures rose $60 on the August contract.  The futures have broken the neckline on the reverse head and shoulders pattern.  This implies much higher prices coming in the future.  The US dollar was a bit higher today as well.  The XAU climbed 5 points, while GDX  added 1 1/3.  Volume picked up to the upside.  With the futures breaking through today it now appears that the gold shares should be next despite being overbought.  I'm in a quandary as whether to simply get some GDX calls here or wait for the indicators to get back to oversold.  The near term move higher for the gold shares has already begun.  However if the reverse head and shoulders pattern is valid, there is a lot of room to run.  And I mean really quite a lot of room.  I would not want to miss out on that.  So that is the current dilemma.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to grind lower but we're not to the 50 day moving average yet.  That would be another logical spot to attempt the SPY April puts.  However we cannot rule out that the market will simply continue to trade higher from here considering the distance that most of the major averages are from their 50 day moving averages.  The fact that the over the counter shares continue to show better relative strength is another factor in the bulls favor in the short term.  We've had a dramatic decline, a bounce, a minor consolidation and now we're heading higher again.  It really seems to me that the bulls are getting back to being in charge again.  Not that could all change tomorrow but I don't think that it will.  Governments around the world are printing so much money that it has to find a home somewhere.  That's my best guess as to what's going on at the moment.  Because the earnings coming up and down the road will not be any reason to get excited about most companies.  Near term employment news won't show much enthusiasm either.  But the market goes where it wants to.  Asia was mixed with Europe higher to begin the week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

We closed out the week with a small loss as the Dow fell 360 points on the now usual very heavy volume.  Yes, 360 points is considered small in todays market atmosphere.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is basically moving sideways here.  The employment report was worse than anticipated.  The market was lower for much of the session but had a decent bounce in the final half hour.  I suppose the question remains whether we are going to go down and test the recent lows or will we put in a double bottom?  The short term indicators for the S&P look like they want to roll over here but they haven't yet.  I also think that sideways is a possibility with the way the Bollinger bands are starting to move.  But that's just a guess on my part.  We're still at the mercy of the pandemic virus.  The economy has come to a halt and the market is still in the process of determining what that exactly means.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up $14 on the futures and the US dollar had a gain as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  They have stopped at the neckline of the potential reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts.  The last two candlesticks there look like potentially putting in a short term top here.  With gold up and the gold shares not following, that's a negative.  The light volume also shows that the interest is all of a sudden lacking here.  The Bollinger band movement here looks the same as the S&P.  Which implies that perhaps sideways is the way to go here as well.  I did cancel my remaining open order for the GDX May calls.  I still like this idea for now but will try and wait for the short term technical indicators to get oversold.  They remain overbought at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX was lower and closed below the 50 level today.  The VIX going down along with price defies the usual relationship.  That is one of the reasons that I'm not getting a good handle on what's going on.  The VIX is getting oversold though and that could mean a decent move lower for stocks in the near future.  Or not.  I'm not in any hurry to trade the SPY right now as the option premiums remain elevated for both calls and puts.  I don't have a good signal here either way too.  I'll check the charts over the weekend and perhaps I can come up with something.  Europe and Asia finished out the week lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.   

The Dow traveled back and forth today and finished with a gain of 466 points on very heavy volume.  the advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  The new claims for unemployment were sky high but the market was still able to manage a nice gain.  There was no downside follow through to yesterdays losses.  My guess is that we'll now go back to the upside from here.  Perhaps we will even make it back to the 2800 level on a 50% retracement.  The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up.  Of course tomorrow could change everything once again but I don't think that it will.  My guess is that the summation index is not going to turn around and go lower than -3000.  Sideways isn't out of the question for the market here either.  GE was off about 1/8, volume remains pretty good.  Gold rallied today as the futures gained $35.  The US dollar was higher too.  The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX was up over a buck.  Volume remained light.  So we had gold drop pretty good a couple days ago but the gold shares did not and today gold had a decent rally but the gold shares didn't rally as much.  Not sure what is going on here.  The inverse head and shoulders patterns remain on the XAU and GDX.  Haven't broken through the necklines yet.  If we do so on heavy volume it might pay to just jump on board.  At this point it does not look like the gold shares will get oversold on the daily charts to take another position on the long side there.  I canceled one of the open orders that I had for the GDX calls.  I left open the call trade for the May option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The smaller stocks didn't act as well as the Dow and the S&P today.  We'll see if that means anything.  The VIX continued lower and it's almost back down to 50.  Still not close to the 50 day moving average though that comes in at 37.  Getting oversold but not completely there yet.  We'll get the March jobs numbers tomorrow, can't see how they will be any good.  The market is focused on other things at the moment in my view.  I'd expect things to go either way, that's the kind of game it is for now.  Just a couple of weeks left in the April option cycle.  The SPY option premiums remain overpriced with volatility premium.  I suppose that I'll just have to be patient for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

We had a gap to the downside today and the Dow fell 973 points on very heavy volume.  The volume isn't as crazy as it has been but it is at least 50% more than usual.  The advance/declines were 13 to 1 negative.  This could turn the summation index sideways for now.  We had beginning of the month outflows instead of inflows.  I can't see things getting any better with unemployment numbers due in the next couple of days.  Could be headed towards a retest of the recent lows here.  The V shape recovery on the daily charts just ended.  SPY did not make it back up to where I would have liked to try the puts.  On the sidelines there for now.  GE lost 7/8 on good volume.  Gold bounced back around $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was light.  I left in my open orders for the GDX calls.  However I'm considering just getting some GDX April calls because though overbought, the short term technical indicators look like they want to turn back up here.  It's a predicament to be sure because waiting for the gold shares to get oversold is the prudent choice.  However there is a potential reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts for the gold shares.  With only 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle, the risk would be pretty high.  I'll consider this idea again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains over 50 and did not even have much of a move today despite the huge loss.  I'm actually at a loss to try and figure out what this indicator means anymore.  I suppose the only thing I can glean from it is that volatility is here to stay for a while.  The gap down today for the major stock indices says to me that we're going lower again in a hurry.  Only a reversal to the upside tomorrow would change my mind about that.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are looking like they are turning back over to the downside.  The pandemic virus isn't getting any weaker in the US.  The panic in the markets seems to have subsided but we don't have any sustainable rallies yet.  We got a nice bounce for sure but that is now history.  Retesting the recent low seems to be the next order of business.  The gold shares have held up here even though gold itself took a pretty good nosedive.  Perhaps that will be the next trade for me tomorrow.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  Expect more of the same tonight.  We'll see how things pan out tomorrow.