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Thursday, April 30, 2020

Heading lower today as the Dow lost 302 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ only down 25 points.  The tech sector is holding up the NASDAQ and as long as that prevails I doubt we'll see any huge declines.  My open orders for the SPY May puts didn't get filled but I still like this idea if we get a light volume rally in the next couple of sessions from here.  I've canceled the orders and will try again if I think that idea still has merit.  The new weekly claims for unemployment remain in the millions.  The pandemic virus remains.  The countrywide lockdown is lifting sporadically.  I do think that the rally is on its last legs but the market always knows more than me.  GE was up 1/4 on pretty heavy volume.  Gold dropped $30 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU shed 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 3/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  Up trend lines from March have now been broken in the gold shares.  The short term technical indicators have started to turn down as well.  I do not think that we'll get completely oversold here but this will give an opportunity to try the gold share calls again.  No doubt I like the June option cycle here and perhaps a short term trade for May.  I don't want to be too early but if GDX gets back to 31, I may try something there.  Another day like today would do it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a small spike up today but the price action on the S&P wasn't as negative as I would have liked to see.  That said, I still may try the SPY May puts tomorrow or Monday depending on price action.  I'm not exactly sure if the 5th and final wave higher is completed for most of the major stock averages.  Ideally a light volume rally into Monday would set up the May put trade nicely but the market rarely cooperates with your best laid plans.  I'll check things out tonight and try to come up with the proper trading strategy from here.  Beginning of a new month tomorrow.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

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