The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 603 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  It looks like yesterday was the chance to buy the SPY February puts but I missed it.  We may or may not get another chance next week to try that trade but it appears that the opportunity may have passed.  The blame will be the China virus but the technical picture for a drop was in place already.  It is a question of how far we go.  With the NASDAQ not in the lead heading lower, I do not think this will be a huge affair.  However normal price targets are definitely lower than where we are and we do still have 3 weeks to go in the February option cycle.  GE lost another 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold didn't really do much to the upside today with a gain of a few bucks.  The US dollar did drop about a half a point today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  It seems that traders are wary of the gold shares despite plenty of reasons to own some here at this time.  My GDX February calls are still showing a profit.  Mentally I am a bit frustrated for missing out on this nice downside move.  I do believe that there's more to come.  The VIX climbed a tick shy of the 20 level today.  Not completely overbought there yet but that should happen on Monday.  As long as the VIX remains above its 200 day moving average, I think that the trend will be down.  Things will get interesting that session for sure since the Chinese markets will finally open after being shut down due to the holiday and the virus.  Speculation is for a 10% drop and that would certainly carry over to the US markets.  If we get a bounce in the middle of the week that may be the chance to try the puts.  However there is nothing to stop the market from simply heading straight down from here and that is a distinct possibility.  Once again I just was not in the right place at the right time although the technical work was pointing to what we are witnessing now.  I'll work on the technical targets for how low we go over the weekend and then decide if trying the puts again is feasible.  It appears that the run up at the close yesterday was the set up for the so called smart money to get short.  Let me also note that the headline in Barrons two weeks ago called for the Dow to hit 30000 on the front page.  That is the proverbial kiss of death for the rally as the headline attempts to suck in the last of the money from the general public.  It happens again and again.  When the headlines shift to the world is coming to an end, you'll know that it's time to buy.  Asia was higher and Europe lower to finish the week.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend and I sincerely hope that I'll have what it takes to make the right decisions next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 125 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  I'm not sure why we got the turnaround that we did today.  The China virus is still in the news but the market seems to now be ignoring it.  The short term technical indicators have now moved back up.  Could the decline be over?  It's possible.  I canceled my open order for the SPY February puts.  I do still like this idea but the market may have other plans.  I may let tomorrow go by and take it from there.  End of the month on tap and that could move things either way.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was unchanged on the futures but did pull back from the high on the day.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on average volume.  My GDX February calls are still showing a small profit.  The up trend line for GDX remains intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Todays price reversal was impressive and cannot be ignored.  It appears as though some kind of short term bottom has been put in place.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  The VIX had a nice move lower but is still above its 200 day moving average.  Another day like today and we'll be back below that.  The short term indicators for the VIX have rolled over as well.  I'm not sure what to think if the S&P 500 closes back above the broken up trend line from October tomorrow.  It certainly has a chance to do so with another positive session.  The trading is never easy.  I suppose we'll see how tomorrow goes and take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.

What looked to be a good day for the bulls turned into a bummer as the Dow only gained 11 points after being up over 200.  The advance/declines were just about even on average volume.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The market started its decline after the Fed announcement.  That announcement wasn't any kind of surprise but the buying dried up.  My open order for the SPY February puts wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there.  It's possible that the snap back from the recent sudden decline is over and now we'll head lower from here.  I certainly hope that isn't the case but it could be.  Obviously the market isn't going to wait around to get my order filled.  There's still plenty of time left in the February option cycle.  GE had a blast to the upside after its earnings report.  It rose 1 1/4 on extremely heavy volume.  It has broken above recent resistance and probably has more upside to come.  Gold added almost $10 on the futures as it reversed course.  The US dollar was slightly higher again.  The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was light.  My GDX February calls gained some ground.  GDX is still above its rising trend line with the short term technical indicators about mid-range.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bounced off of its 200 day moving average today.  Volatility is still in the forefront for now.  The VIX is more overbought now and I'd like to see some drift lower in the short term technical indicators.  But like I've said, the market isn't going to wait around and do what benefits my ideas.  We've got the end of the month on Friday and I'd guess we'd see some selling into that.  That wouldn't help my open order to get filled though.  With today price action it's a good bet tomorrow will be lower.  We'll see.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We got a snap back today as the Dow bounced 187 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down though.  We reached the recent extremes on the McClellan oscillator so a bounce was due.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  The NASDAQ did not break its up trend line from October so there is a chance that the market will simply rally from here.  However I am not in that camp.  I did place an open order for some SPY February puts and I'm leaving it out there.  We've already snapped back to the broken down trend line in the S&P.  Nothing has changed with regards to the China virus and we have the Fed tomorrow.  I'm hoping for a continuation of todays upside and then perhaps the open order will get filled.  GE was up 1/4 on OK volume.  Gold fell on the stock market rally.  The futures shed over $10.  The US dollar finished barely higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  GDX is practically at its short term up trend line.  A close below that will have me exiting this GDX February call trade.  It is somehow still showing a very small profit after two days of decline.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been quite a start to the week as volatility has returned with a vengeance.  With the NASDAQ acting so well here, is it possible that the recent sharp decline is over?  Was it just a blip on the radar of this bull move higher?  We'll know in due time but I'm still believing that there is more near term downside to come.  Some of the short term technical indicators for the S&P have fallen but they're not completely oversold yet.  Yes things could simply go up from here but the other reliable sell signal that was triggered shows a much deeper decline when activated.  I am still a believer in that.  I do not think that we will turn around right here and march on to new all time highs.  I could be wrong.  Tomorrow should be interesting and may tell quite a lot.  What was open in Asia was lower, while Europe finished higher.  We've got AAPL earnings after the bell and the Fed tomorrow.  Should be a busy day.

Down we go as the Dow fell 454 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Stock indexes opened with a gap lower and continued to sell off throughout the session.  The short term technical indicators have all rolled over and we're not oversold yet.  The S&P 500 has broken its up trend line that began in October.  It looks like we've missed the chance to purchase the SPY February puts but maybe not.  The next technical expectation is a return to the broken up trend line unless we just go straight down from here.  The China virus will be the reason given but we know the market was overextended on several indicators.  Not to mention the sell signal that we got from a pretty reliable indicator that simply took a while to manifest itself.  That is why I'm pretty confident that any upside from here can be shorted.  The trouble is that we may just go straight down.  GE lost 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up about $8 on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares lost ground though, with the XAU losing 1 2/3 and GDX down 1/8.  Volume was average.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  It was also a one day reversal for the gold shares to the downside.  That tells me that the decline here in stocks is for real and not just the minor sell offs that we've seen lately.  Traders are selling what they have to meet margin calls.  Now I could be wrong in my assessment so we'll watch and see what occurs in the coming days to be sure.  It certainly isn't a positive when the gold shares decline in the face of gold gains.  But I don't think that it is as negative for the gold shares as it looks.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm a bit annoyed that I just didn't buy some SPY puts on Friday.  Once again I just wasn't quick enough during the trading session to do what was called for.  Hopefully I won't make that mistake if we see some kind of snap back to the trend line rally.  However the option premiums are now all blown out and very overpriced each direction.  So the timing of the SPY February put purchase will have to be pretty good if there is any money to be made.  At this point I can only watch, wait and be ready if the opportunity presents itself.  The VIX blasted up to the 19 level today.  The short term indicators are just about completely overbought already.  Another negative session should do the trick there.  We've got the Fed meeting for the next two days.  Perhaps something positive out of there will provide us with a bump up to buy the puts.  We can only hope at this point.  What markets that were open in Asia and Europe got slammed.  China is now closed for the rest of the week due to the holiday and virus.  I don't expect any quick turnarounds tonight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

They don't usually ring a bell at the top but I believe today they did as the Dow fell 170 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving down.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, especially the S&P 500.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over.  We now have our cue to get the SPY February puts.  It might already be too late but if we see some upside next week we might get a chance.  The China virus going worldwide is the excuse for the sell off.  But the technical indicators have been calling for some downside for quite a while.  I think that today is just the beginning but I don't expect some kind of total collapse or bear market.  However there should be enough of a decline to profit from the puts if you're up to the task.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains good.  Staying above the 50 day moving average here for now.  Gold found safe haven buyers, the futures rose $8.  The US dollar found haven buyers as well and finished higher for the session again.  The XAU climbed 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2 on average volume.  The technical indicators here still have room to go higher in the short term but this rally seems a bit tepid at best.  My GDX calls are now solidly in the black.  With 4 weeks still to go in the February option cycle, this trade can still go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked higher today and is now above its 50 day moving average.  It made it as high as just shy of 16 today.  The question is whether that's it for now or is this an initiation move to begin an extended decline?  My guess is the latter but of course I could be wrong and often am.  The S&P 500 didn't break its up trend line that has been in place since October.  The NASDAQ is still far from it.  However a couple of the other major stock indices have broken that line to the downside.  Usually the NASDAQ leads the way down and the fact that it isn't now has to be taken into consideration.  So there will be plenty to consider over the weekend when reviewing the charts.  I do however favor a bearish outcome with what's about to happen here.  Europe and what was open in Asia were generally higher to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

It was a one day reversal back to the upside for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow as it lost 26 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market fared better than the Dow.  Concerns over the latest pandemic from China drove foreign markets lower and the Dow began the day with a gap to the downside.  We were off over 200 points during the session.  But as has been the case during this seemingly never ending rally, buyers came in and we clawed our way back.  Perhaps this will help to set me up next week to purchase the SPY February puts.  Nothing has changed despite the price fluctuation today.  Still overbought and in need of a correction.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold rose $4 on the futures and the US dollar was up on the session as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My GDX February calls are losing premium but are still showing a profit.  I will hold them as long as the up trend line for GDX stays intact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a spike up today but then turned around and closed below the 50 day moving average once again.  My guess is that stocks will rally here into the end of the month.  We'll have a couple more new all time highs for the S&P and probably for the Dow as well.  That will hopefully set things up for the February puts.  However we all know that the market will go where it wants.  We have though been overbought for quite some time.  Some of the sentiment indicators are showing rabid optimism.  Conditions such as these never end in a good way for the bulls.  It is the timing of the decline that is the ongoing dilemma.  I can't say what will trigger things to the downside but we'll know in due time.  Europe and Asia were down again last night on the Chinese virus fears.  Some overseas market will be closed tomorrow for the lunar new year.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index shed nine points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were just about even.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  The Dow was up over 100 at one point during the day.  So the price action was anything but positive.  I am still considering the SPY February puts but would like to wait for the premiums to come down a little.  However the market doesn't wait for anyone.  We're still short term overbought any way you look at it.  No news to speak of to justify the move lower throughout the session.  GE was off over 1/4 and the volume remains average.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  My GDX February calls are still in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains in a holding pattern below its 50 day moving average.  It also is oversold on the majority of its technical indicators.  The ideal scenario here would be for the VIX to touch its lower Bollinger band and that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  Today price action for stocks was anything but positive and a decline tomorrow would not be a surprise.  The TRAN has already started to drop and if it's the leader now you know which way we are going to go.  The problem is that we don't know if it's a leader or not.  I am trying to at least let this week go by before attempting the SPY puts.  That's the goal for now.  But the market goes where it wants.  I cannot ignore the sell signal given by a pretty reliable indicator but the timing has been late.  If we don't start to drop by sometime next week that sell signal would be invalid.  Hasn't happened yet.  Europe was lower and Asia higher in the overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A lower start to the week as the Dow fell 152 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trying to grind higher.  I'm not sure what to make of todays price action.  We bounced up and down all session.  Perhaps a top is finally trying to be put in.  A virus scare from China didn't help the bullish cause not did the beginning of the impeachment trail.  But it wasn't a complete sell off as the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The TRAN took a good beating though.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was only down a buck or two and did finish well above the lows on the day.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/2.  Volume was slightly better than average.  I did place an open order overnight for the GDX February calls.  It was somehow filled when the market opened even though the buy price was lower than the low for that contract on the day.  I certainly cannot explain that but it is showing a profit already.  The stop loss order is in and hopefully I'll manage this trade better that the last GDX attempt.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a move up today and we'll see if it follows through tomorrow.  I would like to get some SPY February puts at some point.  This may be the correct time or not as we have remained overbought for an extended period.  The trouble is that the option premiums for SPY are very high due to the extra week in the February option cycle.  I suppose that I will try and let this week go by and take it from there.  It is a short week with the Monday holiday behind us.  However the market is certainly not going to wait for me and if we do start to drop I may just have to jump on board.  Overbought has been the condition for weeks on end and it will not last forever.  Europe and Asia were lower as selling took place globally.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Another day, another gain as the Dow added 50 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Overbought, staying that way and it appears that there's just no end to this rally.  Money simply continues to flow into stocks without any thought of a decline that lasts for more than a day or two at most.  Getting to the parabolic stage and that never ends well.  But to time the end is the ongoing question.  I do believe that the February SPY puts will at some point be the proper play.  I'm not sure when but I will be trying that trade at some point.  There is no overhead resistance though and the market is ignoring any bad news that might arise at this time.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold was up about $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Gold up and the gold shares down.  That isn't a positive but I will try the GDX February calls if GDX gets back to the 28 level which coincides with the recent up trend line for the gold shares.  We're about a half a point away.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Overall booked a loss this week and I'm not exactly pleased with that.  The game goes on though.  My trading tactics will be better in the future.  Going forward I've already put some things in place to make that happen.  My main mistake so far this month was really not locking in a solid profit when I had it.  Of course the SPY trade was a disaster but it was while since I'd traded that instrument.  Obviously I forgot how fast that thing moves and how tough it is to trade.  I'll try to remember those things going forward.  The VIX is down around 12 and remaining oversold.  Shorts have been squeezed again and again on the way up.  I guess we can look for a blow off top and consider the SPY puts after that.  The indicators just aren't working in this sustained upside environment.  The sell signal that I received from one of the indicators should take effect by the end of the month.  If that fails, I really don't know what to say.  Hasn't failed yet unless we don't see any downside in the February option cycle.  I am counting on it to work.  Plenty of charts to go over this weekend although most are simply overbought and continuing to rally.  Long holiday weekend for US traders, so enjoy the time off.  Europe and Asia were higher as money chases stocks around the world.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

The Dow took off to the upside today and gained 267 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving up.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Tuesday for a big move in the next two sessions and today confirms that.  I dumped my SPY January puts for a huge 95% loss.  Obviously they should have been sold yesterday at the latest.  My mistake there was also not putting in the stop loss order after being filled.  Not to mention that the trade idea was wrong from the beginning.  The negative RSI divergence signal is no longer on the daily chart.  I'm still a believer in the other sell signal that I received from a different indicator.  I'll be trying the SPY February puts at some point in the future.  The expiration week positive bias is strong this time around.  A run higher into the expiration wasn't out of the question and we're seeing that now take place.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures while the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm also going to try the GDX February calls again if we get back to the up trend line there.  It is currently at the 28 level.  If it breaks through the up trend line then the trade is off.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the big loss on the SPY put trade.  If that idea didn't work right away a loss was inevitable and I would simply try again in the February option cycle.  The question is from what point to start the trade.  There is no overhead resistance and the VIX remains oversold.  The oversold condition can last for a while and that is the case this time around.  I'll just have to keep an eye on things and be ready when the time is right.  Easier said than done.  I'll let Friday go by into the long holiday weekend and take it from there.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was mixed.  It seems that much of the money flow is into the US at this time.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

New all time highs just keep on coming as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to move higher but it is sideways in my view.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The US/China trade deal was signed but nobody really cared since it was announced weeks ago.  I'm still holding on to my losing SPY January put trade.  I should have just taken the loss early this morning and been done with it.  It appears that the market will hold on here for expiration week.  After that, who knows.  No overhead resistance for stocks but I'm still looking for a decent decline here soon.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rallied around $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added two points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  I did sell  my GDX January calls in the morning for a small 40% profit.  I could have doubled that if I had held them longer into the session.  However that was a trade that I mismanaged all the way through except for the lucky entry point that I had.  The profits there could have been so much better but I just wasn't up to the task.  I do like the February calls there for the next trade as the weekly up trend line is still intact.  If we get back to that line in the next couple of weeks, I'll try the calls there again.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, up early and lousy trading tactics.  Unfortunately the market did not cooperate with what I needed to happen today.  With only a couple days to go in the January option cycle, I'll need some early selling tomorrow to cut the loss on the SPY trade.  The VIX remains oversold as volatility has taken a vacation.  This condition won't last forever.  Earnings aren't providing much emphasis one way or the other so far.  Looks like I'll simply have to book the SPY loss tomorrow and go from there.  Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the headlines in tonights trading and see how things open tomorrow.

The Dow added another 32 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today, the opposite of yesterday.  The US/China trade deal was back in the headlines via tariffs.  The deal is to be signed tomorrow and I'm hoping it's a sell on the news event.  Pretty much everyone knows the deal is done and there shouldn't be any surprises either positive or negative.  But you never know.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place for the S&P 500.  Hasn't meant anything yet.  My SPY January puts are still in the red and I should be getting rid of them tomorrow regardless.  Three days to go in the January option cycle.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold dropped below the important $1550 level but did come up from the lows of the session.  It finished slightly lower.  The US dollar was little changed again.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls somehow made it back to a slight profit.  Should dump these tomorrow as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bit of volatility back in the market today when it was announced that the tariffs on Chinas goods would remain in place for the rest of the year.  That's a trade deal?  Regardless, the VIX did perk up but then fell back to near its low of the day.  I suppose I'll simply have to see how we open tomorrow and go from there.  The timing of the entry to the SPY put trade was off and that's a loss waiting to happen when there is only a week to go in the option cycle.  We're still short term overbought for the S&P but the indicators are starting to roll over.  However with only three days left for the January option cycle, there isn't really time to wait and see what will happen.  It's possible that things will be quiet and we simply wander in to the end of the week.  A holiday weekend is coming up as well.  Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the tariff announcement tonight.

The Dow rose 82 points to begin the week on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs for some of the major stock indices including the S&P 500.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  I did purchase some SPY January puts and they are already showing a loss.  The negative RSI divergence remains in place but it has not triggered any selling.  Another day like today and the divergence will be gone.  This trade already feels like a loser with only four days to go in the January option cycle.  GE gained 3/8 on average volume.  Gold fell ten bucks and is now right at the important level of $1550.  If this doesn't hold the breakout that occurred will be false.  The US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU fell two points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was average.  My GDX January calls are now losers.  Not much time left here as well.  A total mismanagement of this trade has turned it into a loser.  Not oversold yet for the gold shares so there could be more to go on the downside here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the losses.  I'll try the SPY puts again for the February option cycle if this current trade fails.  The sell signal from the one indicator that usually works sometimes takes a little time to kick in.  It should be worth at least 25 SPY points when it gets started.  The VIX is now oversold but get remain that way if the rally continues.  With no overhead resistance there is the possibility that it will.  Earnings begin this week and that could turn things around perhaps.  The US/China trade deal gets signed on Wednesday, perhaps that will mark the top as all the good news will be out.  However it would not be a surprise if the positive expiration week positive bias simply remains in effect and we grind our way higher.  In that case the SPY put trade will be dead.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.     

The employment report came in a bit light and the Dow fell 133 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to trend sideways.  I placed an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I may try again on Monday if we get some upside then.  The negative RSI divergence on the daily SPY chart is still there.  It's still valid unless we see a substantial rally from here.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move in the next couple of sessions.  I'm not sure todays move qualifies but it could.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold bounced around $7 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume was lighter here.  I'm still holding on to my GDX January calls for now.  I should get rid of them early next week unless we get some kind of outside influence in the gold market.  Think another US/Iran military escalation.  The calls are still showing a slight profit so I may escape without a loss there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX almost made it down to 12 today.  We are not yet completely oversold there but I'm willing to try the SPY puts next week if there's market strength on Monday.  It may already be too late depending on what happens over the weekend.  In my mind the sell signal is already there and at the least the February option cycle should be good for some more than usual downside.  As usual the timing is the tricky part to get right.  There will be plenty of economic data due out and it is options expiration week.  What will the market focus on is the question that needs to be answered.  Todays negative session did turn the short term technical indicators for the S&P lower.  Plus we are overdue for a decline.  But the market goes where it wants.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and come up with a strategy for next week.  Asia was up and Europe slightly down to close out the trading week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

New all time highs abound as the Dow gained 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Nothing in the way of higher prices as the geo-political tensions are over for now.  There's no overhead resistance.  There is still the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500 along with my other indicator that is flashing a sell signal.  I did place an order for the SPY January puts but it wasn't filled.  I will probably try this again tomorrow after the employment report.  I could be wrong here as we've broken out to the upside from the recent consolidation.  But as long as the negative divergence remains in place, the chance for a decline persists.  I do think that the February option cycle will show lower prices and perhaps I'll just wait for that.  GE was off a few cents but the volume was very light.  Gold continued lower as the futures lost over $5.  The $1550 level has held there for now.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was slightly above average.  My GDX January calls are somehow still showing a slight profit.  I'm most likely going to hold on to them over the weekend at least but I did overstay my welcome on this trade.  This was a time where selling early was the proper strategy.  I obviously didn't do that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is now below its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here still have room to move lower before becoming oversold.  So perhaps sitting things out on the January SPY puts may be the best strategy after all.  I may be placing too much emphasis on the negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500.  If the index keeps moving higher the divergence will be negated.  There is a chance that's what will happen here.  However if I miss the trade, I won't be pleased with that result either.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia rallies as markets around the globe breath a sigh of relief for now.  We'll see if the jobs report tomorrow has anything new to add to the picture.  End of the week tomorrow. 

US and Iran tensions eased today so the Dow rallied 161 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was up 280 before a drop in the final half hour of trading.  This is a very volatile period for stocks to begin the new year.  Headline risk is at the forefront and positions can change overnight.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P 500.  Perhaps today was the time to try the SPY January puts but I certainly didn't have the guts to give it a try.  Perhaps in the next couple of days.  GE was off 1/8 but the volume was light.  Gold had a one day downside reversal after trading above $1600, the futures closed $40 lower and off around $15 for the day.  The US dollar was higher.  The gold shares got crushed as traders exited their long positions.  The XAU lost 4 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/8.  Volume was heavy.  The short term indicators have now rolled over here.  My GDX January calls lost most of their profit today but are still somehow in the black.  As long as gold holds above the breakout of $1550, this trade will have a chance at being profitable.  If that level doesn't hold then the trade will most likely turn into a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The technical indicators on the VIX remain mid-range despite the price movement on the S&P today.  So things still could go either way here.  The VIX does remain above its 50 day moving average.  The negative RSI indicator divergence is still in place for the S&P 500.  We've got the jobs report due on Friday but in this current market environment it may not matter unless there's a huge surprise.  Seven days left in the January option cycle.  Asia lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what kind of headlines we get tonight and take it from there.

Back to the downside for the Dow as it lost 119 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now going sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over.  That isn't the case for the NASDAQ, so there's a chance for a positive resolution to the stall that we've seen here.  I'm still inclined to try the SPY January puts if the opportunity presents itself.  But I am running out of time.  Still in headline risk mode.  GE was off almost a dime and the volume remains good here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures today and the US dollar was higher as well.  Gold remains overbought to the extreme but hasn't seen any selling due to the current geo-political background.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators on the VIX are mid-range at the moment.  So things could go either way there.  My hope is that it moves lower as the S&P trends higher to give me a shot at the SPY January puts.  However the market rarely cooperates with what you hope for.  If we can get a nominal new high in the S&P 500 I think that will be the time to try the puts.  If that doesn't happen we'll just have to wait for the February option cycle.  My GDX January calls are still showing a profit and I plan on holding them until sometime next week.  Or if gold somehow keeps going up and hits $1600, I may sell them then.  But we all know things can turn on a dime in this game.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 68 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving higher but not at a steep rate.  Plenty of geo-political international angst over the weekend between the US and the Middle east, specifically Iran.  However the market refuses to sell off on an extended basis here and that cannot be overlooked.  We're still overbought and there is a negative RSI divergence.  I'm trying to figure out if I should try the January SPY Puts at some point in the next two weeks or wait until we move into the February option cycle.  I am convinced the puts will work here with a very reliable sell signal in place on a certain indicator.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was pretty heavy.  Gold broke through the resistance at $1550 but came well off of it best levels on the session.  The futures gained $15 but were up more than twice that.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were mixed on slight moves with average volume.  The lack of upside for the gold shares here is a concern.  That,  combined with the extreme overbought condition of the precious metals themselves leads me to believe that some kind of pullback is imminent.  I am still holding on to my GDX January calls though as selling early has been a mistake that I've made in the past.  So is holding on too long but I'm inclined for now to just stay put with this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had another big reversal day as well.  If it can get back to around the 12 level this week, I'll try the SPY January puts.  I do think that we are going to set a new all time high in the coming days.  The market has had every reason to sell off here and it just keeps coming back.  That is strength my friends but it won't last forever.  The February option premiums are now high due to the recent volatility and the extra week of time on them.  So attempting to purchase them is not what I'd really like to do at this time.  I do think I'll stick with a shorter time frame and try and see if the SPY January puts will work for me.  The headline risk remains in the forefront now.  Any trade will be even riskier than usual.  I'll keep my eyes open for the possibilities going forward.  Along with monitoring the ongoing GDX call trade.  It has been an interesting start to the new year.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and take it from there.

An overnight air strike in Iraq by the US dominated todays price action as the Dow fell 234 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still trending up.  Yesterdays positive market action was negated by the overnight developments.  We are still short term overbought though.  It's now anybody's guess as to what transpires over the weekend.  I still favor the SPY puts but I may have to go out to the February option cycle.  I'll know more after checking things over the weekend.  We now do have the negative divergence on the daily RSI indicator for the S&P.  But we also have already dropped pretty good today but that wasn't something that could have been foreseen.  All players should return on Monday and perhaps I'll have a better feel for things then.  GE was up a few cents in a down market and the volume was pretty good again.  Gold took off on the safe haven play.  The futures rose $20.  The US dollar finished little changed though.  The gold shares didn't participate and that's a bearish sign.  The XAU was down a point and GDX lost over 1/8.  Volume was average and the short term indicators have rolled over.  The gold shares were due for a pause but when the precious metal is up twenty bucks, you would expect some buying there.  Didn't happen as traders cashed in on their recent gains.  I was not one of them as I continue to hold my GDX January calls.  Still profitable but won't stay that way if we see a drop next week.  I'm looking for consolidation before moving higher but there isn't a lot of time for that to occur.  Gold also now is at the resistance level of $1550 and extremely overbought.  The odds of it breaking through here are not favorable in my opinion.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX soared again today but did finish off of its best level.  If it can somehow move back towards the 12 level, I may try the SPY puts on a short term basis.  We're back in a headline risk environment as last nights action demonstrates.  It is not the ideal trading atmosphere.  But we'll have to take what we get and go from there.  My hope is that the gold shares trend sideways and then return to rally mode but that is asking a lot in just a couple of weeks.  I do think that the overall stock market is vulnerable here and thought that before the air strike in Iraq.  I'll have to watch the headlines out of the Middle east this weekend and check all the charts as usual.  Asia and Europe were lower to close the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market took off to the upside to begin the new year as the Dow soared 330 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 300 market would indicate.  The summation index is now moving back up.  New all time highs again and we now have the chance for the negative RSI divergence to take place.  However with no overhead resistance the market may simply just keep going higher.  My SPY January put idea may be flawed.  I did place a couple orders for the SPY puts today but canceled them as the market moved higher.  I may or may not leave an open order for this idea overnight.  I do expect a decline here soon due to the signal that I received form a reliable indicator but it may not occur until the February option cycle.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P.  GE climbed 3/4 on heavy volume.  That's the highest it's been in over a year.  Gold was up $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX were mixed and seem to have stalled here.  Volume was light.  My GDX January calls are still in the black.  However the gold shares have not followed the metal higher here and that's a concern going forward.  We are also plenty short term overbought for both gold and the gold shares here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is headed back towards 12 and the short term indicators have a bit more room to go lower.  At this point I'm beginning to think that perhaps I should wait on purchasing the SPY puts until the February option cycle.  I'll ponder that tonight.  Everyone should be back at their desks on Monday if they haven't already returned.  Will we get another run up that day and will that be the ideal time to get short?  That's another question that needs to be answered.  For now it appears that the market has nowhere to go but up but we know that won't last forever.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the new year.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.