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Friday, January 31, 2020

The Dow got clobbered today as it fell 603 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  It looks like yesterday was the chance to buy the SPY February puts but I missed it.  We may or may not get another chance next week to try that trade but it appears that the opportunity may have passed.  The blame will be the China virus but the technical picture for a drop was in place already.  It is a question of how far we go.  With the NASDAQ not in the lead heading lower, I do not think this will be a huge affair.  However normal price targets are definitely lower than where we are and we do still have 3 weeks to go in the February option cycle.  GE lost another 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold didn't really do much to the upside today with a gain of a few bucks.  The US dollar did drop about a half a point today.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  It seems that traders are wary of the gold shares despite plenty of reasons to own some here at this time.  My GDX February calls are still showing a profit.  Mentally I am a bit frustrated for missing out on this nice downside move.  I do believe that there's more to come.  The VIX climbed a tick shy of the 20 level today.  Not completely overbought there yet but that should happen on Monday.  As long as the VIX remains above its 200 day moving average, I think that the trend will be down.  Things will get interesting that session for sure since the Chinese markets will finally open after being shut down due to the holiday and the virus.  Speculation is for a 10% drop and that would certainly carry over to the US markets.  If we get a bounce in the middle of the week that may be the chance to try the puts.  However there is nothing to stop the market from simply heading straight down from here and that is a distinct possibility.  Once again I just was not in the right place at the right time although the technical work was pointing to what we are witnessing now.  I'll work on the technical targets for how low we go over the weekend and then decide if trying the puts again is feasible.  It appears that the run up at the close yesterday was the set up for the so called smart money to get short.  Let me also note that the headline in Barrons two weeks ago called for the Dow to hit 30000 on the front page.  That is the proverbial kiss of death for the rally as the headline attempts to suck in the last of the money from the general public.  It happens again and again.  When the headlines shift to the world is coming to an end, you'll know that it's time to buy.  Asia was higher and Europe lower to finish the week.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend and I sincerely hope that I'll have what it takes to make the right decisions next week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.   

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