We closed out the month with a gain as the Dow rose 96 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending lower but not at a rapid rate.  We finished off of the best levels for the session.  I still considered buying some SPY October calls today but we never got any weakness.  I suppose it's back to the sidelines to wait for another signal.  The short term indicators do appear to want to turn back up here.  Nobody is looking at a run to new all time highs here and usually the market does what you least expect.  I'm not sure if I have the guts to get long here though.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold dropped today as the futures lost over $25.  Near term support has been violated and the next support comes in at around $1450/$1425.  A small head and shoulders top has been validated with todays price action.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 2 2/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  GDX is not completely short term oversold yet but more action like today will get it there.  I'm now looking out to the GDX January calls as that would give the trade plenty of time to work.  GDX also looks like it could have a head and shoulders top formation but it hasn't been triggered yet.  Near term support is at 26.  If that doesn't hold we could go back to 24 and then 23.  I'm still long term bullish on gold whatever happens here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX looks like it could be putting in a short term top here and that would be bullish for stocks.  It is another reason why I still favor the SPY October calls here.  The major stock indices are short term oversold and I would expect some kind of bounce besides what we've seen from the lows during Fridays session.  We do have the employment report due at the end of the week.  It's possible that we'll be on hold until then as well.  I may still buy near term weakness but that isn't set in stone.  The more prudent path could be to wait things out here for a better signal as I have already stated.  I might put in an order for the GDX January calls and simply wait to see if the market comes to it.  There isn't any rush there because it looks like gold still has some more to fall to meet the measuring objective of the head and shoulders top.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe traded higher.  We'll begin the month of October tomorrow.   

Lower to close out the week as the Dow fell 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The market did manage to finish up from the lows but we are in a precarious position.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ did manage to close back above its up trend line from June but another day like today and that line will be broken.  The VIX climbed above 18 and is still above the 16 level.  The S&P 500 touched its 50 day moving average and bounced.  We are not yet completely short term oversold on the major stock indices.  Negative trade headlines spooked the market today.  I did not place any orders for the SPY.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was off eight bucks and came off of its lows as well.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell a couple points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Not yet oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market did come back in the final hour today when it looked like things were really going to get ugly.  That is a positive.  The NASDAQ held right where it had to but any negative action on Monday will change the picture.  It's obvious that we're at an important juncture for the market.  We either hold on here and start to move higher or things will probably really start to fall apart.  Monday is the last day of the month.  Not sure how that will affect things.  We'll have to keep an eye on the weekend headlines out of the US and China.  Anything good or bad out of there will drive things early Monday.  I would still like to try the SPY October calls but I'll have to go over the indicators over the weekend.  Plenty of time left in the October option cycle.  Asia slightly lower and Europe was higher to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Lower but off the worst levels of the day as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The market appears to be trying to hold on here but I'm not exactly sure that it will be successful.  I did place an order again for the SPY October calls but it wasn't filled.  Things certainly get trickier for that trade now as we've moved past the prime time to enter it.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are not completely oversold yet either.  The NASDAQ is getting close to violating its up trend line that began in June.  There is not a crystal clear picture of what to do here but there really never is.  I'm still leaning towards the bullish side though for now.  A break of that NASDAQ line would change things though.  The impeachment wild card is a problem going forward.  Plus we can't forget the trade troubles as well.  GE was off about 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was little changed.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was lighter.  I'd prefer to see the gold shares get oversold again before trying the GDX calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is staying above the 16 level and that's not really bolstering the bullish case for calls here.  It seems to me that we've moved into a zone where there's more questions than answers for the market.  I had a better handle on things a couple of days ago for the short term SPY call trade.  Now things aren't so clear cut.  I'll check things again tonight and go from there.  End of the month and quarter coming up on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 162 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  I did place an order this morning for the SPY October calls but it did not get filled.  Opportunity missed for now.  I may try again tomorrow if we head lower but the ideal time for purchase has probably passed.  I'm not sure if this is a turnaround that will lead us to new all time highs gain.  The S&P 500 is forming what looks like a rising wedge and that is usually bearish.  GE was up about twenty cents on lighter volume.  Gold dropped over $25 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX dropped over a point.  Volume was heavy.  Thankful for not chasing the gold shares here but would like to try the GDX calls again when we get back to short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Disappointed to not be in on the SPY October call trade as I needed to make adjustments early in today session but failed to do so.  That said, the work at least was correct as short term upside has happened.  Whether or not it continues is the question.  Impeachment talk continued but the market ignored it and that may be all we need to know.  Some of the short term technical indicators look like they want to turn back up but there's nothing definitive yet.  We also have not made it all the way to oversold.  Perhaps buying weakness will work tomorrow but that remains to be seen as well.  Like I said, I'm not sure this is the beginning of a run to new all time highs but it could be.  We still have a few days left in September to get through and October can be a roller coaster month.  I do like that fact that the VIX closed back below its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  That certainly helps make the case for bullishness here.  But we all know things can change with the next headline.  Europe and Asia were lower in overnight trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Lower today on impeachment worries as the Dow fell 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index down.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ off over 100 points.  We did get a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator of a big move within the next two days.  Todays price action takes care of that.  I'm still a believer that weakness can be bought here for the short term.  I am looking at the SPY October calls and will probably purchase some tomorrow if we get more selling.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and are moving down for SPY.  We aren't yet completely oversold there but are getting close.  Timing as always will be key on the entry.  This could be a buy on Wednesday sell on Friday type of deal.  We are seeing weakness in the latter half of September and that wasn't unexpected.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  Gold once again continues to find buyers and was up just about $10.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume remains good here.  Not completely overbought for the gold shares yet on a short term basis.  Just another missed trade here for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed above the 17 level and above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  The short term technical indicators here are mid-range for the most part.  The spike higher here could possibly be the beginning of higher volatility and lower prices.  Then why try the SPY calls tomorrow?  Well I'm looking at more than just indicator here and my work points to some type of positive price behavior within the next couple of sessions.  Barring a complete out of the blue collapse, I have reason to believe that the market will be moving higher in the near term.  It may only be a day or two but it does appear to be a trading opportunity.  Yes, the premiums are high with so much time left in the October option cycle but if a signal comes forward and looks good I have to have the guts to give it a try.  Who knows?  Maybe something will happen overnight and I'll change my mind.  Or maybe the market will change it for me.  However as it stands now if we do see some selling tomorrow I'll be trying the SPY October calls.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Not much of a start to the week as the Dow gained 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over here but I do think we'll make another run at new all time highs soon.  I also think that weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade.  Whether or not I try the SPY October calls remains to be seen.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold continues to find buyers, the precious metal gained almost $15.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Silver rose almost 5% today.  Money continues to flow into the precious metals complex and that cannot be ignored.  I'm still considering the GDX October calls but the ideal time to purchase has passed.  We've also just moved into the October option cycle, so there's no rush to put on any position.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Pretty close to new all time highs on the S&P 500.  With the VIX staying below its 50 and 200 day moving averages, I'd say the chances are good that we'll see new all time highs sooner rather than later.  This, despite being short term overbought on the S&P short term indicators.  That's my guess at the moment.  If we do get through the near term overhead resistance on the S&P with good volume, a rally should take place.  Hasn't happened yet and all could simply turn lower with the next headline as well.  My fondness for the gold shares here has already been disseminated but the opportunity appears to have been missed due to my return from being away from the trading desk.  Patience will have to be the game plan for now there.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe traded lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

It was a downer to end the week as the Dow fell 159 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  Hard of what to make of todays session with the expiration taking place.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over but some of my other tools suggests that this isn't the beginning of something big to the downside.  However we could still see near term weakness but without a fatal drop.  The recent breadth also does not suggest a market rout on the horizon.  GE was off a nickel on average volume.  Gold found buyers in the afternoon and the futures advanced $18.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU rallied 1 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed out on the GDX October calls.  The short term indicators say that the gold shares have room to move higher here but I'm not inclined to chase it.  I may change my mind over the weekend.  Mentally I'm still a bit tired.  The VIX turned higher today as it is now coning off of an oversold reading.  We are still below the 16 level and that's something to watch.  As I said before, the end of the month could get dicey since we've had such a good first half of September.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'm still trying to adjust back from being away for a couple of weeks.  I think my next trade will be in the gold shares but I'm not exactly sure if chasing them here is the thing to do.  Plenty to ponder this weekend.  For now I'll just have to try and get some rest to be ready for Monday morning.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  the summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market needs to show some strength here or it appears to be rolling over.  We're still short term overbought.  September is generally a tale of two halves.  With the first half being positive, it usually reverses the outcome of the first half in the second.  Strength implies weakness and weakness implies strength.  It doesn't always occur that way but it does more often than not.  So we'll need to see a run to new all times highs in a hurry or take note.  GE was up a few cents on light volume again.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  It appears that I've missed the chance for the October GDX calls.  Although GDX is more oversold than overbought, the indicators have turned up.  Yesterdays low looks like the ideal entry point but having just gotten off the plane my mental state of mind wasn't ideal for trading.  I'm slowly coming back.  I am a believer in the move that gold has made.  I'm just looking for a decent entry point for the next long trade.  I'm also considering going further out in time, to November or January.  However if we do happen to pull back again in the near term I may still try for October.  Mentally I'm still a bit tired.  The VIX remains oversold but in rallies it stays that way.  But the VIX is saying that the next logical trade in SPY should be the puts.  I kind of agree but will need to see an overbought reading on one of my own indicators first.  Not there yet.  We've got the September option expiration tomorrow so things could get interesting.  Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Hong Kong last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a down and up day as the Dow rose 36 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but not with the previous gusto.  The Dow was off over 200 points after the Fed announcement but then climbed all the way back and then some.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today but it appears that things want to move higher.  Perhaps the positive bias of options expiration week will take hold.  Short term overbought here to be sure but you cannot overlook todays comeback which was impressive.  New all time highs are a distinct possibility.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $8 on the futures despite a drop in the Fed funds rate.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares did come up from the lows on the session.  I'm still considering the longer term calls here.  Looking at October but may go out longer than that.  The ideal time to purchase may have passed though as the short term indicators are already coming up from the oversold level.  Mentally I'm tired as I just had a long travel day yesterday to get back to the desk.  I do not want to make any trades at the moment due to my exhausted state of mind.  The gold shares do interest me here on the long side but I can't commit right now.  The S&P 500 looks like it may break out to the upside here but there's only two days left in the September option cycle and I'm not going to attempt anything there.  The VIX is staying below 16, which implies that this rally has legs.  I'm going to cut things short today and try and get some rest.  Europe was mixed and Asia lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight.

We have continued higher this week and have a shot at making new all time highs.  Not many thought that was possible just a couple of weeks ago.  Although the S&P 500 is overbought here, in rallies it remains that way.  The VIX has dropped below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  The summation index is solidly moving up.  RUT is up against its resistance and if it can get through this rally will have legs.  Hasn't happened yet but it is at an important juncture.  Gold has had a drop to short term oversold.  The gold shares as well.  GDX is already moving back up and that is a positive.  My hope is that instead of simply bouncing back straight up, it moves sideways for a while and consolidates.  That would give me a chance at trying the GDX October calls.  Probably just wishful thinking on my part.  I'm still away from my desk and will return in a week on the day of the Fed announcement.

Greetings all, as the markets broke out to the upside from the congestion zone of the past month.  We are now short term overbought for the S&P 500.  It's possible that we'll see some weakness near term and we are lower so far today.  Support is now at the breakout point of 2950, which is also the 50 day moving average.  The VIX did finally break the 16 and closed below there but now we are oversold on that indicator.  So I would not be overly bullish here.  We did not get any solid follow through on the breakout in the S&P.  GE is acting better and is above $9 today.  Gold has taken a slight drop from the recent highs but remains above the up trend line that began in June.  Support is at $1450 if we get that far.  GDX has broken the up trend line that started in June.  It also closed below its 50 day moving average.  Those are negative signs.  We are finally oversold here though on a short term basis.  I'm still considering the October calls here but would like to see a drop to the 25 or 26 area.  The measuring objective of 31 was reached and now we should consolidate before the next push higher.  I'm still away from my desk and not able to follow the game properly.  But I am following things as best I can and will report back in here when feasible. 

Heading back up today as the Dow gained 237 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index to the upside.  The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to the upside form the congestion zone.  Perhaps the jobs numbers will make that happen.  Of course we are at the mercy of the next trade headline, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.  But perhaps the selling has been exhausted and the beginning of September rise can occur.  A break above the 50 day moving average for the S&P could generate some short covering.  GE was up almost 1/2 on heavy volume.  Gold continued higher adding $6.  The US dollar was lower as it is running up against resistance.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was average.  We are a nickel away from the 31 target for GDX.  This is a logical spot for the gold shares to take a rest.  But this rally has been fueled by plenty of money so I believe that it has staying power for quite some time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is heading back down to its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Keep an eye on them because what happens there will tell us where this market is headed.  A break below those averages and prices above the congestion zone would imply that a rally is on.  Hasn't happened yet but a case can be made.  Light volume today is a concern though.  I'll be traveling tonight and away from my desk until September 18th.  If I can find my way to a computer during my travels, I'll provide an update.  But I won't be back full time until the Fed announcement in the middle of the month.  Asia was mixed but there was a huge rally in Hong Kong.  Europe was higher.  I'll be back soon.

The month began with some selling as the Dow fell 285 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  We had a gap lower to start the day but the market did not continue to sell off.  We remain in the month long congestion zone for now.  The jury is still out on which way things go here.  GE was up a few cents on OK volume.  Gold found buyers today as the futures rose around $25.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/2 on better than average volume.  Given the big jump in gold I would have expected the gold shares to perform better on the day.  Perhaps they were held back by the overall market.  They continue to be over extended though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bumped up today but came off of its best level.  We're in an interesting spot for the market where it could break either way.  Technically we're forming a flag after a decline which would imply lower prices going forward.  However the flag has taken so long to form that it could also be a consolidation before moving back up.  Some of the short term technical indicators are overbought here but not a complete consensus.  Of course we could get some kind of headline at any time that will move things in either direction.  But we cannot trade on guessing what that may be.  We also have the jobs report on Friday to contend with.  I'll be away from my desk beginning on Thursday, so I'm in the position to really not do anything at the moment.  I'll be gone for a week and a half.  I will try and get to a computer to update the blog but I can't make any promises.  It certainly isn't the ideal scenario for trading so I will probably remain on the sidelines unless I can get some better computer access.  But I doubt it.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.