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Wednesday, September 18, 2019

It was a down and up day as the Dow rose 36 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but not with the previous gusto.  The Dow was off over 200 points after the Fed announcement but then climbed all the way back and then some.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today but it appears that things want to move higher.  Perhaps the positive bias of options expiration week will take hold.  Short term overbought here to be sure but you cannot overlook todays comeback which was impressive.  New all time highs are a distinct possibility.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $8 on the futures despite a drop in the Fed funds rate.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares did come up from the lows on the session.  I'm still considering the longer term calls here.  Looking at October but may go out longer than that.  The ideal time to purchase may have passed though as the short term indicators are already coming up from the oversold level.  Mentally I'm tired as I just had a long travel day yesterday to get back to the desk.  I do not want to make any trades at the moment due to my exhausted state of mind.  The gold shares do interest me here on the long side but I can't commit right now.  The S&P 500 looks like it may break out to the upside here but there's only two days left in the September option cycle and I'm not going to attempt anything there.  The VIX is staying below 16, which implies that this rally has legs.  I'm going to cut things short today and try and get some rest.  Europe was mixed and Asia lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight.

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