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Friday, October 09, 2015

We finished the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 33 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Sill overbought for the major stock averages.  I did buy some SPY October puts today, as I will try and be nimble enough to make this trade work.  On the hourly charts for the S&P 500, there appears to be a completed A-B-C-D-E pattern to the upside.  The short term technical indicators are in overbought territory as well.  We may very well simply stay overbought and continue higher from here.  But I felt that the risk may be worth it and I'll keep the trade short in duration.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains very good.  Earnings are due at the end of next week.  Perhaps that will propel GE to a new yearly high.  Gold bounced back twelve bucks today and it is now above $1150.  The US dollar was lower on the session.  The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX gained 7/8.  Volume was good back to the upside here.  Perhaps we are finally seeing a rally in gold that has some legs.  Still not even above the 50 day moving average though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Monday is a holiday in some countries and some banks will be closed in the US.  The stock market will be open but trading may be slow or skewed.  We'll be in option expiration week and we will see if the usual positive bias is in effect.  I'm in the next trade now, so I will have to concentrate on that.  My view here short term could be wrong as well.  However technically, some downside is overdue.  So we'll see how it plays out.  The SPY puts that I bought are at break even.  The major trend is now up and I'll be looking at November SPY calls if we do head lower next week.  Gold has barely made it through $1150, so we'll need to see some upside follow through on good volume to be sure that the resistance has been broken.  Not a lot of interest here for the precious metals but at least they have stopped going straight down.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

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