Tuesday, October 13, 2015
A bit of downside today as the Dow fell 50 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. We were overdue for some profit taking at the least. I don't think that this is the start of anything big to the downside. The summation index is still heading up. The short term technicals are starting to roll over. However it is option expiration week and that usually has an upwards bias. My October SPY puts are now showing a small profit. I really should dump them tomorrow. With just 3 days left in the October cycle, the risk is more than anybody would normally want. GE was off 1/4 on pretty good volume. GE led the way up and now perhaps it will lead the way down. Earnings on Friday will tell the story here. Gold was up $3 on the futures as the US dollar was just slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on light volume. Still no real interest in the precious metals complex. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So perhaps this SPY put trade can work out if we see some downside follow through tomorrow morning. We've got some earnings coming out along with inflation and retail sales reports. Later in the day we'll get the Feds beige book release. So the potential for volatility is there. The small stocks helped lead things lower and closed at or near their lows. That is bearish. But the markets can turn on a dime so we will have to see what happens. At any rate, I think that getting out of this SPY trade sooner rather than later is the proper course of action. We'll see. Most of the major foreign markets were lower yesterday but not by a lot. We'll have to see if they follow the US tonight. As always we'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.