Thursday, October 29, 2015
Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 23 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index has begun to trend sideways. GDP came in lighter than last time but really wasn't a market mover. We are still simply moving higher for the overall trend. Like a broken record, the market continues to be short term overbought. I'm still going to have to wait for a pullback from overbought before I attempt the long side. I do not think that trying to buy puts is a viable strategy here. I could be wrong. GE was off a nickel and the volume was lighter. I still have the November calls on my radar here but must keep in mind that most of the gain here has already been made. Gold fell another $15 today as the hawkish Fed tone gets priced in around the world. The US dollar was lower. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX fell 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. ABX did have a slight gain on the earnings report but was well off of the highs for the session. I have no trades in mind here for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Watching and waiting is all I can do here as the market continues higher. Hopefully my patience will be rewarded eventually. There is still a lot of time in the November option cycle. I also still think that new highs in the S&P 500 will occur prior to the end of the year. That is my forward scenario for stocks. Gold remains uninteresting to many and I do not know when that will change. The fundamentals for gold are still negative in my opinion. Long term, the gold shares look very cheap at these levels but you have to have an extended holding time to make it work. The foreign markets did not follow the US higher last night. We'll have to keep an eye on that and see if it means anything going forward.