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Thursday, January 20, 2011

We opened lower today and the Dow was off 75 points during the day. But we made it all the way back to end the day with a slight loss of just 2 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was good. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index has turned down however we still haven't broken the uptrend line on the S&P 500. But we have violated some uptrend lines of the smaller cap stocks. So we are at an important juncture with regards to the near term direction of the stock indices. GE was up a nickel before the earnings tomorrow. Volume was average. I'm guessing the market will take its cue for direction from GE tomorrow. We'll see. I have no trades there for now. Gold took a hit today, down over $20. The XAU lost 3 1/3. ABX down 3/4, with GG off 1/4. NEM was actually up 1/4. Volume was heavy in the gold shares. They were all lower as well but came back with the overall market. The US dollar was a bit higher today. I am looking at the February gold share call options. I will perhaps attempt this trade next week. We are oversold but have been in a kind of free fall since the beginning of the year. Today could have marked the end of the decline but that is a guess and the market will dictate when we turn around. There is no hurry to put this trade on. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. The stock indices tried to sell off today but came back. It's hard to say how much of todays action was expiration related. We aren't fully oversold on the indices yet. As for the gold shares, we are oversold but don't have the Gold/XAU ratio buy signal just yet. We'll get through the expiration tomorrow and look forward to the weekend.

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