Once again the Dow got crushed as it fell 613 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up though. An early morning rally at the open didn't last long and it was all downhill from there. The Dow was again the leader to the downside. My prognosis for the S&P 500 to break its long term down trend line has been put on hold. That index was turned away again at that level and the line remains in effect. Perhaps there was too much agreement that the line was about to break as the bullishness in the media had risen. Whatever the case, the short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over and it closed below the 200 day moving average. I did not purchase any of the SPY January puts today and that was obviously a mistake. I'll try not to beat myself up too much about that. The small stocks are not falling as much as the Dow so perhaps this decline will not last that long. That's my best guess at the moment. The positive option expiration bias has not showed up again. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell over a point, while GDX lost about 1/3. Volume was light. The indicators for GDX remain overbought but not extremely so. We will wait for an oversold reading there before putting on the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit down as I was looking to try the SPY puts here but didn't. It would have been a very short term trade and I usually do not fare well on those. However you cannot wait for the perfect set up every time. You can't win if you're not at the table. The VIX was up and closed above 20. The short term indicators here have turned back up with plenty of room to go higher. I though that the VIX would stay oversold and the market would move higher. After todays price action that thesis was wrong. The VIX is still below the 50 day moving average and we'll keep an eye on that particular level. Perhaps the S&P is headed back to the up trend line at 3850 and that's another area to watch near term. A break of that level would put the bulls on the run. However the overall breadth of the market hasn't been bad here and I'm not convinced the bears are going to take over. Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The Dow got clobbered today to begin the trading week but that was mostly due to an earnings miss for GS. The most watched index fell 391 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain. The S&P 500 had a small loss and remains short term overbought. I am looking at the SPY January puts here but haven't decided if a trade here is worth the risk. With only three days left in the January option cycle, obviously this would be an extremely short term trade. We do have producer inflation data out tomorrow morning. I was thinking about getting the puts ahead of the Beige book release in the afternoon. However the prudent thing to do is to wait for a decent technical signal as we move forward. I'm thinking that I just want to put on a trade because I haven't in a while and that would probably be a recipe for disastor. We'll see. The S&P is stalling at the long term down trend line. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and bonds were mixed. The XAU dropped 4 1/2, while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares underperformed the metal today and that's a negative. Still overbought for the gold shares. The short term up trend line for GDX comes in at 30 1/2 which is a point away. We'll at least wait to see what happens if we get there. A throw back to the former resistance at 30 might be a spot to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but did close below the 20 level. Still short term oversold here and below the 50 day moving average. We would have to see the VIX finish the week above the 20 level to alter our view of higher stock prices going forward. With the small stocks holding up here we still think that the path of least resitance is higher overall. But that doesn't mean we can't see a near term drop before heading back up. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the Dow opened lower and closed higher. It gained 112 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 is now right on the down trend line that began last January that defines the current bear market. This would be the spot to try the SPY January puts with only 4 days to go in this months option cycle. But I wouldn't advise it as the market is in rally mode and will probably close above the line by the end of next week. You could maybe try the puts in a very short term time frame when the market opens on Tuesday but you would have to be very nimble. I don't think it's worth the risk but we will look at it over the weekend. The S&P remains short term overbought. The light volume must be overcome to make the break of the down trend line valid. We expect the market to hesitiate here but it may not develop into a trade worthy decline. Gold was up $25 on the futures and climbed above the $1900 level. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU gained over 1 1/2, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume was average. The gold shares are short term overbought and staying that way. Perhaps they will contiue to run up until next Fridays expiration. If we get a move back to the break out at the 30 level maybe we could try the GDX calls there. However the reality is that we missed this move higher in GDX for the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and has closed the week solidly below the 20 level. This supports the overall bullish scenario for the stock market. Although short term oversold it can remain that way for weeks during rallies. The low VIX is another reason to be careful when attempting any trades from the short side going forward. It really appears that the bears have lost control and we'll see higher stock prices going forward. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. It is a holiday weekend as well so trading won't begin again in the US until Tuesday. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The inflation data came and went. The Dow bounced around all session but had a positive bias. The most watched index gained 217 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive again. The summation index continues to climb. The numbers on inflation came in where expected. The Dow led the way today. We are once again at the moment of truth as the S&P 500 is just below the 4000 level. That is where the down trend line that defines the bear market lives. I am pretty sure that this will be the time that we break through it. The S&P is short term overbought but during rallies it simply stays that way. We are almost into option expiration week and the usual positive bias. Next week is a holiday shortened trading week. As much as I'd like to try the SPY puts here, I think that we are going to get through the long term down trend line in the S&P and travel higher. We might pause at theses levels in the near term but the market wants to go higher. The strength in the summation index is telling us that. Gold rallied on the inflation data and the futures gained over twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and is breaking longer term support. Interest rates dropped again. The XAU added 2 points, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was good to the upside as the rally here continues despite the short term overbought conditions. There's nothing in the way to keep things from going higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had the big move that the contracting Bollinger bands projected and it was to the downside. The VIX closed below the 19 level and implies that the path of least resistance for stock prices is up. This is another reason why we think that the resistance for the S&P will be taken out and the bear market will be declared over. Short term oversold for the VIX but it will stay that way for a while during up swings. All around the technical evidence is pointing to higher prices as we continue through January. Only a week to go in teh January option cycle and I don't see a trade worth risking at the moment. We'll see. Europe and Asia showed gains in last nights trade. We'll see how things close out the week tomorrow.

Stocks continues to move higher as the Dow gained 268 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to move up. I thought it would be a day of waiting on tomorrows inflation report but the market had other ideas. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. At this rate it seems as though the market will simply stay in rally mode regardless of where the inflation numbers come out on Thursday. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and also on the cusp of breaking through the long term down trend line that has defined the bear market. Weak inflation numbers tomorrow will probably get the S&P above that line. If that's the case we'll see quite a move up tomorrow. However the line is still in effect until it is broken on good volume. It should be an interesting market day. Gold was up about five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates dropped. The longer term chart of the dollar shows it on its long term uptrend line that began in 2021. It too is in a defining position of where it goes from here. Something to keep an eye on because it will have implications for gold. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that doesn't fit with an up day for stocks. The Bollinger bands are getting even tighter here on the daily chart. So we can expect some type of big move from the VIX in the near future. Which way is the question. The VIX remains above the 20 level but below its 50 day moving average. Perhaps tomorrow will bring an outsized VIX move. Just a guess on my part. I did think about getting some SPY January puts today but with the summation index in such a bullish position I stayed on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to the CPI tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 186 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. It was a good day for the bulls as the daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks much better. The NASDAQ once again led the way and that's a plus. Getting short term overbought on the S&P but not all the way there yet. Resistance still comes in at the 4000 level and that would be the spot to try the SPY puts if you're so inclined. I'm starting to think that we will just keep moving higher. But we'll see what happens when and if we get there. The market is waiting on the inflation data due out on Thursday. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX added over 1/2. Volume was light. I'm still disappointed in not owning the GDX calls here but what can you do? I cannot purchase them with GDX already in the short term overbought condition because it just doesn't make technical sense. Sometimes being patient is one of the hardest things to do. We will have to simply watch and wait here. Mentally I'm doing OK but I would like to make a trade in the January option cycle. Perhaps a position ahead of the inflation data? It would have to be put on tomorrow. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are pointing down. Not yet oversold here and the VIX now does look like it is implying higher stock prices in the near term. The coil formation has broken out to the downside as the VIX gets closer to the 20 level. I'll be the first to admit that I haven't been able to figure out this indicator for a while now. We'll see where it goes from here. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. Should just be a waiting game tomorrow but with the stock market you never know.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow fell 113 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Tha NASDAQ managed a gain today but we didn't see the good upside follow through to Fridays gains that we were expecting. Markets were higher early on but couldn't hold on to the advance. I still think that we are going higher from here in the near term as the summation index suggests. But if we have a negative session tomorrow I'd be willing to change my mind. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are stalling and could roll over with a negative session on Tuesday. The daily candlestick chart there would also look ominous with a down day tomorrow. Hasn't happened yet but it's worth keeping an eye on. A failure to move up from here would make Fridays price action just another rally out of nowhere in a bear market. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. Still short term overbought for GDX. The gold shares underperformed the metal itself for a change today. I've decided not to chase the GDX calls and will wait for an oversold condition before trying them there. At least that's the current thought process. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and was that way even during the morning rally. The daily chart here looks like a triangle or coil pattern, with the reading ready to break out one way or the other. The short term indicators are close to mid-range. After checking the charts over the weekend we could not come up with any definite ideas worth taking a risk on. There is time in the January option cycle to make something happen but we cannot trade just for the sake of trading. Trying to remain patient and looking for a decent signal. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The Dow exploded to the upside as it gained 700 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. We'll expect to see higher prices from here. The jobs report came in where expected and buyers soon took over. Some short covering in there as well to be sure as there are plenty of bears still around. The NASDAQ led the way today but not by much. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have taken off to the upside with room to run. I suppose that our orignal premise of a base being formed on the S&P was correct. I still didn't have the guts to try the SPY January calls. If we do get some pullback we might try that idea yet. The first line of resistance for the S&P is the 50 day moving average and we are already there. Next comes the long term down trend line that started a year ago which now lies at 4000. That will be the key test. Get through that and we'll declare the bear market done. Gold rallied as the futures gained over thirty bucks. The US dollar had a big drop along with interest rates. The market seems to believe that the rate rise is over. The XAU added 3 1/8, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume continues to be good on the rise. We missed the GDX January call trade. GDX remains short term overbought which occurs during rallies. I still can't buy the calls here with the overbought condition but perhaps I'll change my mind. Price and volume continue to move in the right direction for the bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators have turned back down. This implies a lower VIX and higher stock prices. Perhaps the VIX can get below the 20 level and stay there. If that happens the down trend line in the S&P 500 will be broken to the upside. We will see how this all plays out. The economic data out today certainly didn't warrant the kind of rally that we saw but the market always knows more than we do. The summation index is moving back up and we'll take our cues from there. Look for higher prices going forward. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the first week of the new year. We'll go over the charts and data this weekend to try and come up with a game plan for the next two weeks in the January option cycle. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling took hold today as the Dow fell 339 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to turn back up here. The NASDAQ was the leader to the downside. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and in a sideways channel. I thought that the S&P was forming some kind of base and that prices would move higher from here. However the market just keeps moving sideways with no resolution. Now I am not sure what to expect next. We are getting some bullish signals from some of the indicators but the market is not responding. I'm staying on the sidelines for now with regards to any SPY trades. Gold saw selling today as the futures were off twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares held up better than the metal itself again and that's a plus. GDX is short term overbought and I just can't bring myself to purchase the calls here with that technical condition. But in up trends the overbought condition can last for quite a while. It's never easy in this game. Money does continue to flow into the gold shares though. Mentally I'm feeling indecisive. I can't really make up my mind what to do here so I'm still on the sidelines. The VIX was off today but down from its best levels on the session. The short term indicators remain at mid-range. I'm not about to predict which way the VIX goes from here as it has had a mind of its own lately. We'll get the employment report tomorrow and it should provide the catalyst to get prices moving one way or the other. After tomorrow there's still a couple of weeks left in the January option cycle. So there's plenty of time for a trade. Asia was up and Europe mixed in last nights trade. All eyes on tomorrows jobs report.

The second day of the new year continued with indecision as the Dow gained 133 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is attempting to turn back up. We were in positive territory for much of the session but moved back and forth from good gains to just smaller ones. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold despite moving up. I'm still a believer in higher prices moving forward. However the lack of a strong move to the upside in the beginning of the year is concerning. Perhaps the jobs report on Friday can get things going. Gold rallied as the futures tacked on another $12. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU jumped 5 1/2, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside and GDX broke through resistance at the 30 level. The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that's a plus. It appears that I've missed this trade as GDX is now pretty short term overbought on some of the short term technical indicators. If we do see a near term pullback I'd be willing to try the January calls here. However a more likely scenario is for the gold shares to just plow on higher. Money continues to find its way into this area. Not sure why but we'll stick to the technicals. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an up market. The short term indicators are mid-range and the Bollinger bands are contracting. Still above the 20 level on the VIX but that could change if we see a rally in stocks. Not exactly sure what is next for the VIX as I haven't been able to figure this indicator out for a while lately. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A volatile session to begin the new year as the Dow lost 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to congest. We had a huge gap up at the open with the Dow almost reaching a 250 point gain. The market then proceded to lose all that and then some with the Dow almost reaching a 300 point loss. It finished about in the middle of todays range. The market is trying to make up its mind here. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term but we'll see what the market has to say about that. The NASDAQ was once again the underperformer. There is plenty of bearishness around and that usually leads things to go the other way. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and has been that way for too long in my view. The Bollinger bands here are starting to move closer so we should see some kind of decent move out of this 2 week congestion zone. My guess is that it will be to the upside. I did take a look again at the SPY January calls but didn't have the guts to buy them. We'll consider this idea again tonight. Gold rallied to begin the year with the futures up $18. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell. It looks like today had a flight to safety theme to it. The XAU climbed 3 1/3, while GDX was up a point. Volume was good. The 30 level once again held for the upside in GDX. I suppose if GDX gets through there on good volume we'll just have to jump on board. Hasn't happened yet but we will keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK although I do have some indecision as to what is going on here. The VIX was up today and that fits the overall market. The short term indicators here have turned up as well. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract here. Not sure what to expect next with the VIX but that isn't a surprise. Not much of a Santa Claus rally so far and there is only one day left for that. I remain on the sidelines for now but we'll take another look at the SPY calls tonight. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

I suppose it was only fitting to close out 2022 on a down note as the Dow fell 73 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to congest. A last hour rally saved the day from being worse as the Dow was down over 350 at one point. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold on most of its indicators. To me is appears that we have put in a base here on the S&P and I am looking for higher prices to begin the new year. We are seeing extreme readings in our call/put ratio which usually leads to some kind of rally. Also the fact that the NASDAQ hasn't broken down here after hitting a new yearly low is a plus. I did consider getting some SPY January calls today but did not. The light volume this week still makes any moves suspect. But I do think we move up from here. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. The gold shares have been underperforming the metal itself lately. But just like the overall stcok market it is hard to put much credibility in the moves this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly and I still don't know what to make of the action here. The Bollinger bands here are slowly starting to converge so we'll be seeing something meaningful here soon. I just don't know which way it's going to go. Today puts a close to the 2022 trading year. My win percentage was pretty low. However a couple of late huge winning trades turned it into a profitable year. We will try and build on that momentum heading into 2023. Asia was generally higher and Europe down to close out the week. It's another holiday weekend so we'll have an extra day to check the charts and prepare for the start of trading in 2023. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. Happy New Year everyone.

Buyers returned today as the Dow climbed 345 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We got quite a bullish reading on the daily call/put ratio yesterday and todays price action verifies that. Another rally out of nowhere but this one might have legs. The daily S&P 500 chart may have put in a sideways bottom. It remains short term oversold but the daily indicators are starting to point up. Another positive session tomorrow would help the bullish cause. The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P currently has two bullish hammers. The light volume makes everything suspect though and we'll have to see if we get some upside follow through to close out the year on Friday. But at least the NASDAQ led things higher here today. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on extremely light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are now mid-range. We will wait for next year to attempt any trades here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains above the 20 level. Not getting any signals from here at the moment. At this point we are just waiting for tomorrow to end before another holiday weekend. We did get a lot of price movement so far this week but the volume or lack of it makes us question what is really going on here. I'd expect some kind of beginning of the year rally when all the players return next week but that's just a guess for now. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll say goodbye to the 2022 trading year tomorrow.

Sellers had the upper hand today as the Dow dropped 365 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It's heading towards the zero line again and we all know what happens if it makes it through there. We will see new lows for the decline in the S&P if the zero line doesn't hold. Short term oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The NASDAQ led the way lower and closed at a new low for the year. The light volume isn't helping this week as it tends to skew things one way or the other. For now the bears are back in control. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU lost 3 3/4, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was very light. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to turn lower and the Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a big move is coming. After todays price action it looks like it could be to the downside. I still like the calls here but we're in a wait and see mode at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the market decline. Not sure where this indicator is headed next. The bulls will have to step up here soon or this could get ugly pretty fast. With such a lack of participation it's easy to get things going one way or the other. Not sure how to interpret whether this decline is for real or not but you have to respect price. Perhaps we'll have a better idea of what's going on after tomorrow. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading.

A mixed bag to begin the holiday shortened week as the Dow gained 37 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading lower. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. It will most likely be a thinly traded week so I don't know how much meaning we can give to the price movement. Most major players won't be back at their desks until the new year. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower, while interest rates jumped. The XAU was up 3 points and GDX gained around 3/4. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are pointing up and it's not yet overbought. However the 30 level is proving to be stiff resistance for now. A break above there with good volume will lead to higher prices for GDX. I'm still looking at the January calls there but would prefer to buy them at oversold levels. However if GDX does get through 30 I may just jump on board. There's also the option of going out to the February option cycle as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the overall market drop. It is more short term oversold than overbought. However I'm not getting a good idea of what to expect next here. Still above 20 on the VIX. We'll probably remain on the sidelines until next year at this rate. Europe and Asia had gains overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some back and forth today in pre-holiday trading as the Dow gained 176 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The economic data out today came in about where expected. The NASDAQ underperformed and the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. A relatively quiet session and that was to be expected. Gold added $9 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range. We are still considering the GDX January calls for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the positive day for stocks. Not sure what the VIX has in store for us next. Looking ahead to next week, the markets will be closed on Monday. Again players will be on holiday vacation so the volume should be light. Asia was lower and Europe flat to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. Merry Christmas everyone.

It was quite a session and anyting but quiet today. The Dow fell 348 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It could have been worse as the market was off 800 points about halfway through the day and then made a dramatic comeback. Not sure what it all means as we were on the brink of a huge collapse. Some short covering to be sure but perhaps the sellers just dried up. The smaller stock indices were on their way to testing the October lows when they abruptly turned around. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and that's what occurs during down trends. Not sure where we go from here as things still could go either way after todays price action. We'll have to wait and see how the weeks ends tomorrow. Gold dropped $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses after being lower earlier in the session. The gold shares followed the market back up even though gold itself didn't. Volume was about average. The gold shares outperformed the metal once again and that's a plus if you're bullish. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with a decline in stocks. The VIX was much higher during the day and almost made it up to the 50 day moving average. But it fell back and lost much of its gain. Not sure what this means either but the VIX is still above the 20 level. Perhaps we are setting up for the Santa Claus rally, which involves the last 5 trading days of December coupled with the first 2 trading days of January. We'll see. For now we'll be on the sidelines until after Christmas. Asia up and Europe down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We got the bounce we were looking for today as the Dow gained 526 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. One of the hallmarks of a bear market is a rally that springs up out of nowhere. Todays fits that. But it is where we go from here that will determine the markets fate. If we continue higher into the end of the week, the bear case will lose steam. However if things turn back down from here going into the close on Friday, the bear lives. I'm not sure which way it goes but the S&P 500 is still short term oversold. One of the negatives lately has been the light volume but we are in the holiday season with many away from their desks. For now we will wait and see how it goes before attempting the next trade. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were steady. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was average. Sitting tight for now with the regards to the GDX January call idea. Will try and wait for GDX to get short term oversold again. Plenty of time left in the January option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again and closed at the 20 level. The short term indicators here are heading lower and imply more gains for stocks in the near term. Not yet short term oversold. The VIX seems to be saying that there is nothing for the bulls to worry about as the 50 day moving average capped the recent rise here. If the VIX can get and stay below 20 it gives more credibility to the bullish case. Hasn't happened yet but we'll know more by the end of the week. For now we'll remain patient and let the market lead the way up or down. Not always the way we'd like it to be but there is not a clear signal to trade off of in my view at the moment. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Another day of indecision as the Dow bounced around for much of the session. The most watched index gained 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. The Dow was the outperformer today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I'm still waiting for some kind of bounce this week. However as long as the summation index is moving lower, the path of least resistance is down. Many participants are already gone for the holidays so things can get skewed one way or the other. We'll probably wait until next year for the next SPY trade unless we really see a good signal. Gold took off to the upside today as the futures gained thirty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU jumped 5 points, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. I did place an overnight order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled. The Japanese yen climbed overnight and the price of gold sometimes follows the path of the yen. It did today. GDX was short term oversold yesterday but has moved away from there fast. Buying has come into the gold shares for the past month and a half. It looks like we missed this chance to buy the GDX calls again but we'll see. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated as we seem to have missed the trade we were waiting for. Not sure why the market is having such an appetite for gold but that's what it looks like. The Bollinger bands on the GDX daily chart are starting to contract which implies a big move coming there. Seems like it will be to the upside based on the recent price action. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are still mid-range. So the VIX could go either way from here. Not getting a good idea of what it will do here but it does remain above the 20 level. Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade. I'll be looking for some kind of bounce tomorrow.

More selling to start the week but a last hour bump up kept it from being worse. The Dow fell 162 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. We should see a bounce in the next day or so. Not sure if it will be more than just that. There is a lot of bearishness around though. The smaller stock indexes look like they're going to test their October lows. If that occurs it won't bode well for the overall market. Oversold and remaining there would be trouble going forward. We'll have to see how it plays out. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates rose. The XAU was off almost 2 points, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. GDX is almost short term overbought and I'm thinking about putting in an overnight order for the January calls there. However if the overall market continues to sink, GDX will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with a down market. Again this indicator isn't acting in the usual fashion. Not sure what to make of it. The short term indicators remain at mid-range. Still could go either way here. The weekly indicators for the major averages still have plenty of room to move lower. That's why it's possible that things could get dicey here. Add in the summation index heading lower and you see the situation that we're in. Unless we see some kind of turnaround soon the markets will be heading lower going into the end of the year. If we continue to move closer to the zero line and through it on the summation index, the previous lows for the major indexes won't hold. That is what we are facing at the moment. Europe was up and Asia generally down to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Some follow through selling today as the Dow fell 281 on extremely heavy triple witch expiration volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The S&P closed right about at the 50 day moving average and is short term oversold. So we could see a bounce early next week. Or not. You can somewhat make a case for a small head and shoulders top for the S&P 500 on the daily candlestick chart. If valid the measuring objective would be around 3700. Most of the major averages are short term oversold but in down trends they tend to stay that way. The technical indicators for the weekly charts have plenty of room to move lower. So unless we see a quick turnaround we are in the next leg down for the bear market. We'll take our cues from the summation index and it's heading lower. Gold found buyers once again as the futures were up $15. The US dollar was slightly higher and rates were mixed again. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on lighter than lately volume. Yes, we still like the GDX January call idea as gold seems to catch a bid with any decline lately. However at the rate it has been going we won't be seeing GDX reach short term oversold anytime soon. Perhaps that will change next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped with a down market, once again not the normal order of things. The indicators here remain mid-range. Not sure what to expect with the VIX next. The bears have come out of hibernation before Christmas. Will that mean no Santa Claus rally this year? Time will tell on that. Only two weeks left for the 2022 trading year. Normally I'd expect things to slow down with the holidays upon us but this market doesn't seem in the mood as yet. An extra week for the January option cycle so the premiums are higher than usual. We'll be checking the charts this weekend to try and come up with some new ideas. Asia and Europe were lower as it's a worldwide exit from stocks. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market has spoken. Stocks got clobbered today. The Dow fell 764 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving back down. Equities had made it back to the longer term down trend line on the S&P 500 only to be repelled. The bears took control where they had to. My idea of breaking through that line and on to higher prices has been proven wrong. It appears that lower prices are in the near future for stocks. When the market speaks we have to listen even if it's not what we want to hear. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back down. Not completely oversold yet so there is room to move lower. The tight Bollinger bands prediction of a big move is to the downside. The positive expiration week bias is not happening this time around. I guess the first downside target would be the 50 day moving average at 3860. Gold slumped as well with the futures off over $30. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU lost 5 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was good. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down. Now it is just a matter of GDX getting to short term oversold, which is what we've been waiting for. I'm not sure how long that will take and even if it is the right idea anymore. At this point we'll let option expiration pass tomorrow and go from there. If the US dollar starts to rally from here it would be a major headwind for gold. The dollar has been oversold for quite a while and is now coming off of that condition. It's something to keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits the market decline. The short term indicators here are mid-range which would mean we could still have plenty of downside to go if the VIX continues to rise. At this point I'm not sure what to think when it comes to the VIX. It hasn't been acting in the usual fashion. It has been quite a trading week already but we still have one day left. The rally has ended and we'll have to see how low we go. Europe and Asia were down as well. We'll see how expiration Friday goes.

We now have the Fed out of the way after another back and forth session. The Dow fell 142 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Fed rose rates as expected and after that the market lost its gains for the day. It wasn't a complete collapse like we've seen before this year. The S&P 500 is still below the longer term down trend line but I'm still in the camp that we get through that line soon. Maybe not by expiration Friday but before the end of the month. That's my best guess at the moment. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. The Bollinger bands here are still getting tight so we are going to see something big soon. Gold was off 5 bucks on the futures but came back up from the lows of the day. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were steady. That is not what you would expect with the Fed raising rates. Markets do what they want. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares also came back from the lows of the session. We're still waiting for GDX to get short term oversold but at this rate it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Trying to stay patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower with a down market and that doesn't fit. The short term indicators have rolled over though. I can't figure out what the VIX is doing this week. A lower VIX normally means higher stock prices. We'll see what happens in the next two days. For now it looks like the next trade will take us into the new year. Waiting on a decent set up. Sometimes it's hard to remain on the sidelines but also at times it's necessary. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Inflation data came in waeker than expected and the market opened with a huge gap to the upside. The Dow was up 700 points in the first half hour and then proceded to give most of it back. The most watched index still managed a gain of 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is beginning to track sideways. It was a volatile and crazy session. The bears are at their last line of defense as it looked like we were going to break the long term down trend line on the S&P 500. Once again the 4100 level proved to be a barrier as prices were repelled from that level. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned up though and if the Fed comes in dovish perhaps we'll get through the resistance. Taking out that trendline on good volume would lead to more gains and put an end to the longer term decline in my view. Hasn't happened yet but that's what we've been leaning towards. Gold rallied on the inflation news as the futures were up $30. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up almost 3 points, while GDX rose 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. GDX remains short term overbought so we are waiting to purchase the January calls there. But the interest in owning the gold shares now isn't slowing down as the market has stayed overbought since the beginning of November. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had quite a range today and was lower which fits the up move in stocks. The short term indicators have rolled over which implies more price gains to come. But anything can happen here which is why we'll be keeping a close eye on tomorrows developments. A hawkish Fed speech could bring things right back down again. Todays price action could have left no doubt that we're heading higher in the near term. But the selling took over at resistance which is why we'll be cautious for now. Wednesday will be an important session for prices going forward. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market was trending slightly higher for much of the day and then took off to the upside in the final hour and a half. The Dow gained 528 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to congest. A big move before tomorrows consumer prices is a surprise but the market always knows more than we do. Short covering in there to be sure but some positive price movement was to be expected. Will it carry us past the long term down trend line in the S&P 500? The short term indicators there have begun to turn up. Is the positive expiration week bias in effect? Plenty of questions as usual in this game. The Dow led the way higher today. It's too late to try the SPY December calls for me. I did put in an overnight order for some but it wasn't filled and the premiums were very high with only a week to go anyway. After tomorrows data we've got the Fed on Wednesday. So the jury is still out on where we go this week but it is a promising start for the bulls. Gold was off almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on average volume. The gold shares did come off of their lows for the session, following the overall market higher. Once again the gold shares outperformed the metal itself and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the gold shares are still in overbought territory. We will wait for the Fed to get out of the way before attempting to purchase the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and that makes absolutely no sense with a market up over 500 points. Short term overbought now for the VIX which would imply that it will turn around and we'll see a rally in the market. If that does occur we will probably see quite a move up for stocks. That would take out the down trend line for the S&P and we could declare with some confidence that the bear market is over. If the VIX stays overbought we should see a decline. So it will be an interesting week to say the least. Asia and Europe were down to begin the trading week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.

Quite a lackluster session until the final hour when stocks tanked. The Dow fell 305 points on the lately lighter volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Producer prices came in where expected and the market bounced around but not dramatically. However in the final hour, sellers showed up to close the day with a loss. The Dow was the leader going lower so it wasn't exactly a broad based sell off. It does put my thesis of higher prices to break through the 4100 level on the S&P by expiration next Friday into jeopardy. In fact it probably entirely shoots it down. We are short term oversold for the S&P 500 but a rally is not materializing. This was how the market acted during the past negative year. We haven't taken out the down trend line in the S&P that began in January. It appears my take on things is wrong and I will have to listen to what the market says. The lack of volume lately should be another clue. I'm now not considering the SPY December calls but will have to go over things this weekend. Gold was up $5 on the futures but was higher early on. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was average. The gold shares gave up all of their gains for the session and then some. I'm still considering the GDX January calls but on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm a bit confused as the market is not acting the way that I thought it would. Pretty much I'm just wrong as the market is always right. The VIX was up a bit today. The short term technical indicators are getting more overbought but they aren't all the way there yet. I thought that the indicators would roll over here but they haven't. The VIX seems to be saying that there will be more selling near term. Option expiration week is upon us and it usually has a positive bias. Obviously that's not a 100% indicator. I'm not sure what to make of the current price action but like they say, when in doubt stay out. Plenty of work to do over the weekend to try and figure where we go from here. We'll be checking all the charts as usual. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Buyers had the upper hand today as the Dow added 183 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is slowly moving down. We were up from the start today but it wasn't a blockbuster session. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next 2 days. Todays price action wasn't that much but it could qualify so we'll see what happens tomorrow. Perhaps the inflation data will be a catalyst. The S&P 500 is short term oversold on some of the indicators. The Bollinger bands are also beginning to contract which implies that a big move is coming. As usual which way is the question. I still think that we're going to move higher and surpass the longer term down trend line on the S&P before option expiration. I did place an overnight order for the SPY December calls but it wasn't filled. Six days left in the December option cycle. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU along with GDX finished little changed on light volume. Still short term overbought on GDX as we try and remain patient before trading there. A weaker producer price number could get the gold shares moving higher again but we will try and stay on the sidelines here until GDX gets oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is stopping mid-range in the Bollinger bands. If the market rallies tomorrow, the VIX will turn down and the short term indicators will roll over. That is what I'm looking for. I do think that the market will be moving up here and into the option expiration. It would prove that thesis wrong by dropping tomorrow. The Bollinger bands are contracting on most of the major stock indices so we are about to see something worthwhile one way or the other. I'm a believer in the upside but will listen if the market says otherwise. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a day of just hanging around as the Dow finished flat on lighter volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is stalling here. Not a lot of movement for the stock indices. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold on some of the indicators. My guess is that we'll be moving higher form here into the end of the week. One of our technical indicators will be flashing a buy signal after todays price action. I'm thinking about perhaps getting some SPY December calls but the premiums are still pretty pricey considering there are only 7 days left in the December option cycle. Yes the NASDAQ once again led things lower but it wasn't any kind of steep decline. I'm still a believer of higher prices going forward. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains solid for the gold shares. Buyers appear here on any decline. We do want to purchase some GDX January calls but are trying to wait for GDX to get short term oversold. That isn't happening for now. We are tempted to chase things here but for now we'll sit it out. But make no mistake that money is coming back into the precious metals complex. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today. The short term indicators here are now mid-range. So it could go either way from here. My thinking is that the VIX is going to turn back down here and that stocks will move higher. We'll see. We are still waiting for the S&P to get through the longer term down trend line that began in January at around the 4100 level. I'm guessing that the market will turn back up here and that we will get through that level before option expiration on the 16th. That's my take on things at the moment. The market will let us know in the coming sessions. Europe and Asia were both down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another day of selling as the Dow fell 350 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The sumation index is now trying to turn lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. We did see last hour buying though and that is an encouraging sign for the bulls. However the short term up trend line on the S&P 500 daily chart was broken to the downside. If the selling continues and the summation index begins to turn down my thesis for higher prices will be wrong. For now the longer term down trend line for the S&P remains intact. Less than 2 weeks to go for the December option cycle and I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped a bit. The XAU lost 3/4, while GDX was flat. Volume was a bit above average in the gold shares. I'm still considering the GDX January calls. Waiting on GDX to get short term oversold but that may not happen. Remaining patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up which fits with a down market. The VIX broke the short term down trend line on its daily chart. The short term technical indicators are now moving up which implies a higher VIX and lower stock prices. But things can move on a dime in this game and I'm not completely sold on an extended move lower from here. I could be wrong. We'll have to see how the rest of this week goes to get a better view of what's going on. Economic data this week has been coming in where expected. Producer prices due out on Friday. Europe was down and Asia mixed in overnight trade. We'll see if we can break the S&P 500 4 day losing streak tomorrow.

Monday sellers showed up again as the Dow fell 482 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Selling from the start today but we did see some stabalization in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and they have some distance to travel before they get oversold. I still think that we'll get through the 4100 level at some point this month. The short term up trend line for the S&P comes in at the 3960 level. Another day like today would break it but we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Gold fell thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped around 4 1/4, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares were quite a distance from their 50 day moving averages so a move lower is to be expected. GDX also made it to some strong overhead resistance at the 30 level. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over as well. We are looking at the GDX January calls and wanting to purchase them when GDX reaches short term oversold. Perhaps this week or next. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and is back over 20. There is a down trend line for the VIX at 21 3/4. If the VIX gets through that then the decline will last longer than I expect. The longer term down trend line for the S&P at 4100 has proven to be an obstacle so far. One strong down session doesn't make a trend but it will be interesting to see where we go from here. I'm still in the bullish camp for now but we'll let the market tell us where it's going. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading.

The employment data came in better than expected and the market opened with a gap lower. It spent the rest of the session making back lost ground and the Dow finished with a gain of 34 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues higher. Most of the major indices posted fractional losses today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but I still feel that it is just a matter of time before it breaches the 4100 level and on to higher values. That is no secret anymore in my view. Before when we saw the market open with selling it would continue throughout the day. Now it is viewed as a chance for buyers to hop on board. Although the indexes are overbought they stay that way during rallies and a rally is what we're in. The down trend line at 4100 on the S&P is the last line of hope for the bears. Gold sold off early but came back to only lose $3 on the futures. The US dollar jumped on the employment numbers but then turned around and finished with a loss. Interest rates rose and then dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on good volume again. GDX is stalling at the 30 level as it should. We do still like the idea of the GDX calls once it gets to short term oversold again. Not sure when that will occur as money is now pouring into the precious metal stocks. We'll look to the January option cycle here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed at 19. That doesn't exactly fit with a lower overall market. But it does fit with a market that is in rally mode. Both short and medium term oversold on the VIX. The VIX is also pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. The oversold condition won't last forever but we would only be guessing if we tried to say when it will end. Markets do what they want. Next week should provide more clarity on the current situation. A move through the S&P 4100 level on good volume is what we'll be looking for. As usual we'll be going over all the charts this weekend. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We didn't get the upside follow through that we were looking for as the Dow fell 194 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. We'll still give the bulls the benefit of the doubt though because yesterdays gains were stellar. The NASDAQ was slightly higher. Inflation data today came in a bit lighter than expected. Employment numbers out tomorrow. It is interesting that the S&P 500 stopped right at the 4100 level and turned around. It remains short term overbought and right at the long term down trend line that has been in effect since January. My thinking is that we are going to break through that line and call an end to the bear market. Only a dramatic downside slide from here would change that view. I could be wrong and often am. Gold took off on the futures and gained over $50. The US dollar dropped again along with interest rates. The XAU rose 3 2/3, while GDX gained a point. Volume was very heavy for the gold shares. GDX is at the 30 level now and deserves to take a break. This is where the long term resistance comes in. We will be looking to purchase some GDX calls on any pullback. Todays volume could be an upside blow off, which would mean that gold and the gold shares are about to take a break from the recent rise. If so it would give us a chance to get on board. If not gold will simply continue to plow on higher. Both gold and the gold shares are pretty far away from their 50 day moving averages. A move back towards there would be the logical conclusion. But it's no secret now that gold is attracting money. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed below 20 today and remains short term oversold. Medium term as well. Tomorrows VIX movement could tell us a lot about where we go from here. If it keeps moving lower, that would be bullish for stocks. But if it jumps tomorrow and stocks have a decent decline we can't rule out that the bear still lives. However I really think that the market will continue its rally from here. Europe and Asia were up last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The Fed speaks and the market pretty much goes wherever it wants to. Stocks soared on the Fed speech today as the Dow climbed 737 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Monday looked like the start of another breakdown and by Wednesday it is looking like the bear market is over. The S&P 500 is now back to the down trend line that began in January. It is on the cusp of breaking through. Unless we see a dramatic turnaround it is going to break the down trend. Overbought, staying that way and the volume is confirming the move higher. The idea to try the SPY December puts here is probably dead. It appears that's what the market is telling us. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's another plus. We still have the jobs report to get past on Friday but after todays price action it may not even matter. We'll look for follow through upside tomorrow. Gold jumped another twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar sank along with interest rates. The XAU rose 4 1/8, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good to the upside as it has been. Plenty of resistance for GDX at the 30 level and it's at 29. So I don't see prices going much higher from here for now. GDX remains short term overbought. We'll look for some kind of consolidation here to let the overbought condition work itself off. When GDX gets to oversold again, that will be the time to try the calls there perhaps in the January option cycle. For now we'll have to wait. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped and is just about at 20. Still short term oversold here on the technical indicators. If the VIX stalls at 20 it could lead to a reversal in the market. But that's a big if as stocks feel like they are taking off to the upside as the sellers have disappeared. Seasonality favors higher prices as well. Still over 2 weeks left in the December option cycle but it feels as though the best entry points have passed me by. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Not much to report from todays price action as the Dow was up 3 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Perhaps the market is waiting to hear what the Fed chief has to say tomorrow. Not sure what to make of the lighter volume lately. If it's a liquidity issue we'll most likely be heading lower in the coming days. It may simply be just a lack of interest. End of the month tomorrow. Gold bounced back twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX was up 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. Some of the short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up. We cannot overlook the fact that buyers have come in for the gold shares pretty strongly in this move higher. It stands to reason that the GDX calls should be the preferred trade in this atmosphere. Finding the right entry point is imperative but GDX is still short term overbought. We will remain patient for now but at the rate it's going GDX doesn't look like it will return to the neckline of the recent reversal pattern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Still short term oversold but not extremely so. Not sure where it goes from here. Plenty of time left in the December option cycle but we need to come up with a good idea. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sellers returned after the long weekend as the Dow fell 497 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Unrest in China will be the excuse but as always the market knows more than we do. It appears as though the S&P 500 won't make it back to the longer term down trend line at around 4060. But the week is young and one day doesn't make a trend. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are still overbought but they have now rolled over. The important level to watch is 3900, which is where the up trend line from October lies. A break of that will end the rally. The Russell 2000 is already at its up trend line and could be the leader heading lower. We'll keep an eye on that. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU dropped almost 5 points, while GDX lost 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. The technical picture for the GDX indicators mirrors the one for the S&P. Short term overbought but rolling over. If GDX gets back to the 26 level and is short term oversold when it gets there we'll think about trying the calls there again. 26 to 25 1/2 is the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart. Technically it isn't out of the question to return to the neckline before resuming the move upwards again. The volume for this pattern has been spot on so far which increases its validity. Might have to go out to the January options depending on how fast we get back to the neckline, if at all. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a gap higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators are oversold but now moving up. If the VIX continues to move higher we'll see a decline in stocks. After today it looks like we won't make it down to the 20 level in the VIX. But it's early in the week and we will have to wait and see. Fed speak from chairman Powell on Wednesday followed by the jobs report on Friday. So there will be plenty more for the market to digest after the Thanksgiving holiday. Europe and Asia were down to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A mixed bag post Thanksgiving but the Dow gained 153 points on half day light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were negative. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold was up almost ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were flat. The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX was off fractionally. Volume was light. The gold shares under performed the metal today but I'm not sure how much you can read into that considering it was a holiday shortened session. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX didn't do much today and remains extremely short term oversold. We are still considering the SPY December puts but the premiums there remain high. However if the S&P makes it to the 4070-4100 resistance level and the volume remains light we will probably give that idea a shot. We'll go over the charts this weekend. Asia was generally lower and Europe flat to close out the week. A long holiday weekend for most so we'll be back at it on Monday.

Levitating higher as the Dow rose 95 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. We are getting a light volume rally in the S&P 500 moving up towards the long term resistance. Expect it to continue on the half day Friday. The stopping point should be between the 200 day moving average at 4060 and the longer term resistance around 4100. So it looks as though we'll have a shot at the SPY December puts if we are so inclined. But the market could also simply keep moving up and spell the end of the current bear phase. I still think we'll try the puts though. The S&P remains short term overbought on a daily basis. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added 3/8. Volume remains good here to the upside. I canceled my open order for the GDX December calls as I have missed this trade. Monday was the time to make adjustments and take the position but I failed to do so. The technical picture for GDX is positive and resistance comes in at the 30 level. Sometimes you need to be nimble and adjust on the fly. The trades don't always set up as you'd like and you have to make the necessary adjustments. GDX is now medium term overbought as well but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and barring something unexpected on Friday will close below the longer term support line that has ruled the bear market in stocks. This could very well be the game changer from bearish to bullish for the market. The VIX is almost at 20 and that is the line in the sand. Get there and stay below says the bull will live on. We are getting medium term oversold on the VIX. The short term picture is about as oversold as it gets. That provides some of the reasoning to attempt the SPY December puts in the near term. If the longer term resistance line for the S&P 500 holds, it should lead to a decline in the market worth taking advantage of with the SPY puts. If the market simply powers through higher, you take the loss and move on. That is my line of thinking at the moment. The Fed minutes today didn't really do much to the players that were here. We'll be off for the holiday tomorrow and then a half day session on Friday. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Here's the holiday week rally as the Dow climbed 397 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and is staying that way. Such is the case in market up turns. I thought that perhaps we'd have a quiet week but the market thought otherwise. We'll see how high it can go here and hopefully up to the 4100 level so that we can try the SPY December puts. The volume is cooperating as it is holiday week light so far. We are not seeing strong leadership from the NASDAQ and that helps build our case to try the puts at resistance. Patience for now. Gold was only up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares followed the market higher. The XAU gained 5 1/8, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume was good to the upside as money is finding a home here. It looks like we've missed this move higher as my GDX December call order wasn't filled and won't be. I'll cancel it tomorrow most likely. It looks like GDX will not be making a retracement back to the breakout level at 25 1/2 - 26. I suppose we'll just have to wait until it gets short term oversold at some point and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower and now sits at the up trend line that began a year ago. If the VIX can decidedly get through this line it would be further evidence that the decline in stocks that began in January has run its course. A break below the 20 level in the VIX would further support that theory. Hasn't happened yet but we'll be keeping a close watch here. The VIX is still short term oversold. Tomorrow is a getaway day before Thanksgiving but we do have the Fed minutes coming out. We'll see if they are a market mover. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of the Hang Seng. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just hanging around as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up but slowly now. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The S&P 500 has traveled sideways for a week and remains short term overbought. This holiday week is generally a positive one for stocks so we will have to see where we go from here. I don't expect a lot of action this week as many players will be out of the office. I could be wrong. Gold fell $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares do continue to hold up rather well vs. the metal itself. That is a positive moving forward. I did place an open order for the GDX December calls. It will take some decline in GDX to get filled. GDX is still short term overbought. A drop to the 26 level would be the ideal scenario. Markets rarely cooperate. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower along with stocks. That isn't the normal relationship. The VIX remains short term oversold and I'm not sure what it has in store for us going forward. Once again it is probably best to let this week go by before committing to a SPY trade. So we'll try and remain patient for the time being. Europe and Asia were lower but the NIKK was up. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

We finished the week on a positive note as the Dow added 199 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to move higher but not at the pace we saw earlier in the rally. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Ideally we'd like to see a light volume rally to the resistance at around 4100. That is where the longer term down trend line that began in January lies. If we get that scenario we'll be looking to purchase the SPY December puts. There's not much to do now except wait. We roll into the December option cycle on Monday. Gold fell $11 on the futures. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was above average. Gold down and the gold shares up. That's a bullish divergence for the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought. We're still hoping it makes it back to the neckline of the recent reversal pattern so that we can try the GDX calls again. May not happen. Trying to remain patient for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits an up market. The short term technical indicators here have rolled over in oversold territory. This implies more gains for stocks going forward in the short term. We have a holiday week coming up. I'd expect lighter volume with an upside price bias. Many players will be out of the office and away from their screens. It is probably best to just let next week pass and go from there. We'll see if the market cooperates. The routine will remain the same though and we'll be checking the charts over the weekend. Europe up and Asia down to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A bit lower again today as the Dow lost 7 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to congest. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. We did have a gap lower to begin the trading day and then spent the rest of the time making it back up. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought but it is heading back down to the neckline for now. If it gets back to the 26 level we may have our chance for the GDX December calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. The daily candlestick chart there looks like it wants to go lower which would be a plus for stocks. But this indicator has been a tough nut to crack for me lately. I can't say that I have any confidence when it comes to interpreting the VIX for now. We've got option expiration tomorrow and then a Thankgiving holiday shortened trading week on tap. Could be a good time to just stay on the sidelines but we'll see. Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another day of hanging around for the Dow as it dropped 39 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We'll see if that means something in the coming days. Retail sales came in about where expected. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We've reached an area of congestion here. It is either a consolidation before moving higher or a short term top. No way for me to tell right now which way it's going to go. The up trend line for the S&P remains intact. The Russell 2000 was the weakest link today and that may be more telling. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU fell a point, while GDX lost about 1/3. Volume was light. Not a lot of sellers and that's a positive for now. We're still waiting for a pullback in the gold shares to try the GDX calls again. Patience for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit again with a down market. We've come up from being extremely short term oversold. It looks to me like the VIX wants to turn back down here implying higher stock prices in the near term. But I've been off trying to figure out the VIX lately. Haven't really seen the usual positive expiration week bias in the market just yet. Not sure what the lack of volume today means going forward either. Always plenty of questions searching for answers in this game. Asia mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Back and forth once again as the Dow rose 56 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The inflation data out today came in less than expected. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought. We're still waiting for it to reach its 200 day moving average and the 4100 level. The 200 day comes in at 4075. If we get there at that point we'll decide whether trying the SPY December puts as the next trade. Right now it looks as though the market will simply keep going higher but we'll see. We also have a holiday week coming next week and we may want to stay on the sidelines until after that. Gold was up another five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. If interest rates continue to fall that should support higher stock prices. The XAU was down 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average here. GDX remains short term overbought and we are still hoping for a move lower to attempt the GDX calls again. The market rarely cooperates with our best laid plans. For now here we'll watch and wait. Again on the interest rate theme, lower rates would likely support gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today after being much higher during the session. A higher VIX with higher stock prices isn't the normal relationship but this indicator has had a mind of its own lately. Still short term oversold here. We're still in the midst of a stock market rally and we'll see how far it can go. Retail sales out tomorrow should be an excuse to go one way or the other. Staying on the sidelines and patient for the time being. Asia and Europe were higher overnight with the exception of the FTSE again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 211 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. Back and forth through the session as the market is due to take a rest. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Producer prices out tomorrow and that should provide a reason for buyers or sellers. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We'll see if the positive expiration week bias shows up. Plenty of economic data due out this week including retail sales. So we'll see if the market takes a breather or powers up to the resistance at 4100 for the S&P. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. We are waiting to see if it falls back to the neckline breakout of the inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. We are looking to try the calls there again on weakness. The recent price and volume pattern on GDX is implying higher prices going forward. There is stiff resistance at the 30 level though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits with a down market. Still short term oversold here. Not sure where we're going on the VIX. I haven't had a good read on this indicator for a while. However as long as the summation index is moving up we'll be looking for higher stock prices moving forward for now. We also still have an intact up trend line on the S&P 500 daily chart. Waiting for the 4100 level on the S&P before deciding on the next trade there. Europe was up and Asia generally lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Just hanging around today for the Dow as it was up 32 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Digesting yesterdays stunning gains was the story for the Dow. The overall market was much stronger with the NASDAQ gaining almost 2%. The S&P 500 touched the 4000 level. Getting short term overbought there but not completely just yet. Resistance comes in at 4100 for the S&P and that is where the down trend line that began the bear market lies. We'll consider the SPY puts there perhaps. A break of that line would put the bear market to rest in my view. But we haven't gotten to that point yet. However the market action lately has certainly been positive and the seasonal strength may continue. Gold added $17 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and the bond market was closed for Veterans Day. The XAU added a point and GDX was up about a dime. Volume was average. The gold shares didn't move up much with gold going higher today and that isn't bullish. GDX is short term overbought but we haven't reached the measuring objective from the recent inverse head and shoulders pattern. I did sell the GDX November calls today. The exit could have been better intra-day but I did what I could. The gain for this trade was 1070% in less than 10 days. That's not a typo and results like that are why we focus on the options. But like any finished trade it doesn't matter now and you move on. I'll be looking for a move back towards the neckline in GDX for another chance at the calls there. We are still looking at the 30 level for GDX as the target for this gold share rally. Mentally I'm trying not to feel too bad about todays mediocre exit on the GDX trade. It is entirely possible that I should have simply held on to the position into next week. Hopefully I won't dwell on it all weekend. The VIX was lower and that fits with the overall market strength. Still short term oversold as the rally lives on. If the VIX can continue its oversold condition until the S&P 500 reaches 4100, we may have a set up for the SPY puts. There is an up trend line on the weekly VIX chart at the 21 level. The VIX currently sits at 22 1/2. It was a great week for stocks and now we have options expiration week on tap. If the positive bias shows up we could get to 4100 sooner rather than later on the S&P. We'll be going over the charts this weekend in hopes of finding the next trading opportunity. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week with the exception of the FTSE. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market exploded to the upside today as the Dow roared ahead by 1201 points on heavy volume. Yes, twelve hundred points higher in a single session. We are more used to big point days like this going lower. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to move up. The inflation data came in a bit lighter than expected and we had had a gap higher at the open. The NASDAQ was the leader today and was up over 7%. There's a potential double bottom there now on the daily chart. A break above 11250 on good volume would confirm the pattern. Perhaps it will happen tomorrow. The S&P 500 up trend line remains intact and the short term indicators there have now turned back up with some room to run. One economic report doesn't normally lead to such extreme price movement. However this is why we are reminded that markets go where they want, whenever they want. In either direction. We'll be looking for higher stock prices going forward. Gold was up around $40 today as the rally here continued. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 7 3/8, while GDX added almost 2 points. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is short term overbought. My GDX November calls are showing great profits at the moment. Although there are still six days left in the November option cycle I am seriously considering taking the profit tomorrow ahead of the weekend. There is more room to go higher according to the measuring objective of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. But GDX has been moving practically straight up for about a week now. I don't want to be too greedy. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX had a huge drop today with the big gain in stocks. Althought short term oversold, the indicators there have turned lower in oversold territory. The VIX seems to be saying that the rally in stocks has legs. I would expect to see some follow through to the upside in the market tomorrow. We'll see. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Stocks got sold today post election as the Dow fell 646 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. Maybe the market didn't like the election results that are still in limbo for some races. Perhaps we're just selling off ahead of tomorrows inflation data. The NASDAQ led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back down. Those technical indicators are now mid-range so we could go either way from here. Price is right on the short term up trend line for the S&P. So after tomorrow we'll have a better idea of where we are going in the near term. I can't say that I have a good feel one way or the other for whatever the outcome is. We'll just have to wait and see what the market has to say. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains good here. Hopefully the gold shares are simply digesting the recent strong gains before moving higher. That would be to my benefit for the current GDX call trade. Or this could be the beginning of the move back to the neckline breakout for GDX at 25 1/2. Another possibility is that the recent rise is over and we're about to move back down towards the 50 day moving average. GDX remains short term overbought but can stay that way if this is an extended rally. We'll know more after tomorrows inflation data is digested. Not sure how much longer that I'll hold on to this trade. The current technical analysis says to hold on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the down draft that we saw in stocks. The short term indicators have turned up but remain oversold and have plenty of room to go higher. This would suggest that we're about to see a sustained decline for stocks. Hasn't happened yet and the VIX remains below its 200 day moving average. Not sure what to expect next here but just like the market things could go either way. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. All eyes on tomorrows inflation report.

Another back and forth session with Dow gaining 333 ponts on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher and should pass up through the zero line today. Once again stocks were led by the Dow which has been the theme of the current rally. That isn't the most positive backdrop but the bulls will take it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up and the near term up trend line there remains intact for now. What we really need to see is some strength from the small caps and NASDAQ to feel good about the current rise. We need to get through the election results and the consumer price information as well. Any negative surprises will derail the recent buying. Technically it's a mixed picture with the big caps overbought and the small cap indicators mid-range or lower. Never any easy answers in this game. Gold rallied again with the futures up almost $35 and now above $1700. The US dollar was lower again and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 5 1/2, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was heavy again to the upside for the gold shares as money is now finding a home there. More importantly the rise in GDX went through the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders which validates that pattern. The measuring objective is up near the 30 level. I'm not sure that I can hold on to the GDX calls that I have for that long. There's only a week and a half left in the November option cycle. GDX is also now short term overbought. The next technical expectation of the pattern is a return to the neckline. That isn't always the case but it does happen often enough to be aware of. It does give traders a chance to hop on board before continuing higher. We'll see how things play out for GDX. Needless to say the GDX calls that I have are showing a good profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that doesn't coincide with an up market. This indicator hasn't made sense to me for quite a while. It is not acting in the usual fashion. The short term indicators have now turned back up but the VIX is still oversold. If the indicators continue higher we should see a near term decline in stocks. Hasn't happened yet but it is something to be aware of. Perhaps we'll see some selling tomorrow ahead of the inflation data. That's just a guess on my part. My focus will be on the gold shares. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow continues its climb as the most watched index gained 423 points on good volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up and getting closer to the zero line. The Dow was the leader again which has been the case in this recent rally. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to move back up but not in a pronounced way. The big caps are leading the small caps and that's a sign of risk aversion. The trend remains up for now on the S&P. Here we have near term tops above tops and bottoms above bottoms for now. Waiting on Thursdays inflation data. Gold finished about flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved up. We should have seen more positive price action for gold with the drop in the dollar. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. We're on the cusp of breaking through the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX. Perhaps we'll stall here for a bit before turning higher. Or we'll break down from here and the pattern will fail. I'm hoping for the former. My GDX November calls are still comfortably in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and now is extremely short term oversold. Not sure how much longer that condition can continue. But I haven't been able to figure out what's happening with the VIX for a while now. We'll just have to wait and see where we go from here. Election day tomorrow and I'm not sure it will have that much impact on stocks. Gridlock would be preferred by the market as always. Asia and Europe were both up overnight with the exception of England. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a back and forth session for much of the day until the market decided that it wanted to go higher. The Dow gained 401 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The jobs report was better than expected and we bounced around after that. One day doesn't make a rally though. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators are around mid-range and moving sideways after todays price action. If we can continue higher from here the S&P chart would look a lot more constructive. There would also be a potential double bottom on the NASDAQ daily chart. But we will have to see where things go from here. Inflation data out next Thursday but we're a long way from that. Gold had a dramatic move to the upside as the futures soared over fifty bucks. The US dollar dropped and interest rates were mixed with little change. The XAU gained 9 1/3, while GDX was up 2 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX is now approaching the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that comes in around 25 1/2. If we can get through the neckline on good volume GDX will be moving higher. Some of the short term indicators here have turned back up. The GDX November calls that I have are showing healthy profits but this trade isn't over yet. We all know by now markets can go either way in a hurry but the entry on this particular trade looks like it was ideal. But just like the overall market one day doesn't make a trend. Plenty to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good after this recent trade appears to be working out. However I can't let that mood affect me as the trade still has to be managed properly. Up or down, win or lose an even keel will go a long way to producing solid results. Not always easy to do though. The VIX was lower and that fits with an up market. Still short term oversold and staying that way. Not sure how much longer that will last but sometimes it's longer than you think. Impossible to know if this is one of those times. We'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. A holiday next week on Friday for the bond market. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan last night to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Some follow through downside today as the Dow dropped 146 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. We sold off hard early today and then spent the rest of the session moving sideways. Once again the NASDAQ led the way down. We'll get the jobs report tomorrow and I'm not sure that will turn things around. The short term indicators for the major averages have turned down and they're not oversold yet. Some of the indices are holding up better than others but the NASDAQ lagging it certainly isn't a very bullish backdrop. Selling off into the close is not a positive. So we'll see how things shake out tomorrow. Gold fell $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 2 1/4, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. I did end up purchasing some GDX November calls. They are at break even. It looks like a decent entry if we can get some kind of bounce from here in GDX. Not completely short term oversold yet here although one of the hourly chart indicators says it's time to buy. I do not plan on holding this trade for long depending on how it goes from here. The breakdown in both NEM and GOLD is not encouraging. However an oversold bounce is not out of the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX once again was lower with a decline in prices. This doesn't fit the normal pattern for this indicator. I don't know why it's acting strangely lately. The VIX remains oversold yet stocks are going lower. Not sure what to expect with the VIX going forward. So we are now in the next trade and I'm not really sure if this was a good idea. The fundamentals for gold remain in place as negative. The reverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX appears to be forming a second right shoulder. But if GDX doesn't hold in here, the pattern will fail and this trade will probably end up a loser. So what happens with GDX tomorrow should be pretty important for the outcome of this trade. We'll see. Europe and Asia were lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the downside after the Fed as the Dow fell 505 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were bettern than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving higher. We got another signal last night for a big move from the McClellan oscillator and we got it today. The Fed raised rates as expected but the market didn't like what it heard after the fact. The NASDAQ led the way lower and has been under performing for quite a while. Short term indicators for all the major averages have turned down with still more room to move lower. The NASDAQ looks like it wants to test the October lows. Other indices, not so much. The short term up trend line on the S&P daily chart has been broken. It looks like we'll be heading lower in the short term. Gold fell ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 1/4, while GDX dropped 1 3/8. Volume was heavy to the downside for the gold shares. They were underperforming the metal today as they chased the overall market lower. My open order for the GDX November calls wasn't hit. Not sure if this is the best idea after today. GDX could be forming another right shoulder on the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Or not. NEM broke its near term support today and is not completely oversold yet. Barrack Gold reports its earnings tomorrow and is close to breaking support as well. I'll have to look things over again tonight and decide what to do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX once again barely moved and we had a huge decline in stocks. This makes no sense at all. My concern is that if the VIX does start to go higher here we are going to see quite a decline in the market. It is another reason to perhaps take a step back here when it comes to the option trading. But you don't make any money on the sidelines. However you don't lose any either. Something weird is happening with the VIX but I don't know what it is. Plenty to ponder tonight to decide what to do. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow lost 79 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. Waiting on the Fed. The NASDAQ is still the leader to the downside but not with the gusto that we have seen in the previous couple of months. The tone of the market has changed with the recent upswing. The S&P 500 continues to be short term overbought. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and we'll see how the market reacts to that. Then we'll have to get through the employment report on Friday. The trend is up as we have highs above previous highs and an up trend line in place for the S&P. Resistance is at 4100. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were slightly higher. The XAU gained 2 1/8, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was average. At this rate my open order for the GDX November calls won't get filled. Might have to adjust it again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Oversold and staying that way. I don't want to guess when the VIX will turn back up as it can stay oversold for extended amounts of time during rallies. I do think however that each passing day gets us closer to a move higher in the VIX. That means some selling for stocks and more than the little dips we've seen during the recent move higher. For now it's all systems go for more upside but that could change tomorrow. We'll see. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.