Selling ahead of the Fed as the Dow dropped 228 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but we didn't finish on the lows of the day. The main indices are holding above their 50 day moving averages for now. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Too late for the SPY August puts if this is indeed the begining of an extended decline. However with the summation index still moving up we have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for now. Tomorrow of course could change everything. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates remained steady. The XAU was up more than 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was average for the summer. GDX remains oversold on the short and medium term time frames. It is also pretty far from its 50 day moving average on the daily chart. The problem is that it's remained far from the 50 day for a month without a hint of trying to get back to it. Just an occaisional one day bounce like today. I am looking for a weak GDP report on Thursday but with so many losing GDX call trades in a row I'm going to have to remain on the sidelines there. At least I suppose that I should. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped higher today. The short term indicators here have turned up. We did not get to the 22 level on the VIX as I had hoped to initiate the SPY August put idea. We'll wait and see if we get there before a decline really gets going. Or we are already at the beginning of the next leg down. I'm not exactly sold on that theory just yet as the market isn't selling off as strong as it did before. Patience for now. Plenty of time left in the August option cycle. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

Waiting on the Fed is what we'll call it as the Dow gained 90 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Dow led the way which isn't the most bullish scenario. We've got upside targets that we're looking for in order to try the SPY August puts. This week will probably go a long way in telling us if the bottom is in for stocks or not. I'm still thinking that we'll head down again but nothing I've done lately has worked so we'll take that under advisement. The NASDAQ was lower today. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU lost 2 3/8, while GDX dropped around 3/4. Volume was good. NEM reported earnings before the bell and got absolutely crushed. My GDX September calls got stopped out for a 35% loss. I have tried to trade GDX from the long side all the way down this extended decline for the gold shares. Extremely oversold for the gold indexes and they just keep on going down. Will I try this idea again in the near future? Maybe. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today. It remains short term oversold. If it gets to 22 I will be trying the SPY August puts. It is as simple as that. At this point the market is marking time before the Fedspeak on Wednesday. Rates will go up and then we'll hear what chairman Powell has to say and the market reaction to that. GDP on Thursday and then some inflation data on Friday. So it will not be a week of the summer doldrums to be sure. Plus after the week is done we'll have a better idea of where we're going I hope. So we will watch and wait for now. Europe was up with the exception of the DAX, while Asia was lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 137 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower today and that is not a plus. However the S&P 500 was running into the next line of resistance and it took a step back. That doesn't mean the rally is over but we'll have to keep a close eye on what follows from here. The S&P remains short term overbought. I would expect the beginning of next week to be a waiting game on the Fed announcement Wednesday. We are hoping to try the SPY August puts but we'll try and let the market tell us where it is going. Despite todays drop the trend remains up. The gold futures finished with a gain of $8 but were higher than that during the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates took another steep drop. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3 after being higher early on. It was a one day downside reversal for the gold shares. Volume was good going lower. My GDX September calls are still losers and will be stopped out on Monday with a repeat of todays price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. We almost made it to the 22 level today. That is the area on the VIX in which to try the SPY puts and we could get there Monday if stocks stage a rally. Risky it would be to try it as there is plenty of time left in the August option cycle due to the extra week involved. If the VIX breaks below 22 and closes below it next week we might declare the bear market over. There is a line of resistance for the VIX on a weekly basis that has held since November of last year. So we are at an important juncture for volatility that should be resolved in the coming week. It will tell us a lot. Plenty to think about this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The upside continues as the Dow gained 162 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Plenty of buyers as the bulls are now in control. During the decline we usually got last hour sellers. Now we get last hour buyers. The NASDAQ continues to out perform and that's a plus. Most of the major stock averages are now short term overbought. 4020 looks to be the next line of resistance for the S&P 500. Is the bear market over? It sure feels like it but we'll know for sure as time moves on. We are heading for a seasonally weak period for stocks. But with the summation index heading higher it's kind of hard to go against that. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. My GDX September calls didn't get stopped out today and are still losers. Not sure why gold rose today but it looks like just an oversold bounce. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to fall and is getting closer to our magic number of 22. It remains short term oversold. If and when the VIX hits 22 we will be taking a shot with the SPY August puts. If the VIX makes it through the 22 level and stays there, we'll declare the bear market over. So we'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Continuing to the upside as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation is moving up and just passed the zero line. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. The bulls have now taken control. Some of the major stock indexes have broken through the top of their Bollinger bands. It appears that the contraction of the bands will produce a decent rally that started a week ago. We'll see what happens at the next resistance. Gold dropped $15 on the futures and closed below $1700. The US dollar was higher and interest rates held steady. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are now losers and should be stopped out tomorrow on follow through selling. My concerns on being early for this trade have been confirmed. Nobody is interested in owning gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX fell and managed to close below its 200 day moving average. Short term oversold here but the VIX stays that way during rallies. If it makes it to 22 we'll be buying some SPY August puts. For now we'll just have to watch and wait. Earnings have been coming in OK so far as expectations were lowered beforehand. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Now it looks like a summer rally as the Dow soared 754 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. We have made it past the first line of resistance for the S&P. The next test arrives at the 4000 level. Small stocks have closed above their 50 day moving averages. The bulls are trying to take back control of the game. We are getting short term overbought but not completely there yet. Looking from a bearish perspective, todays rally sprung up out of nowhere. That is classic bear market activity. We'll have to see how far it goes and how long it lasts. Gold was slightly lower today. The US dollar was down but interest rates increased. A mixed picture to be sure. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/4. The gold shares followed the overall market today. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are still right where I bought them. Light volume equals no interest as I am early for this trade in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term overbought but it can stay that way during stock rallies. Bollinger bands still contracting here. They've also contracted on some of the major stcok indices and prices are at the top band. So I think it's safe to say that we are going to see prices move up promptly or we've got the next decline set up. After todays price action it looks like things are going to go higher. The bear market could be over but it's not set in stone. We'll know more as the week unfolds. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see if there is some upside follow through tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 215 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Sideways could be the description of the summer rally so far too. The morning started promising for the bulls but it fizzled out. I still think that we'll see higher prices this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range. The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract, which implies a big move coming one way or the other. The TRAN finished positive. Some indices are challenging their 50 day moving averages. Gold was higher early but faded and only had a slight gain. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU was up 1 3/8 but GDX only managed to gain 1/8. Volume was light. My GDX September calls are right where I bought them. If the market fades here the gold shares will probably follow. I'm looking for higher equity prices this week but what do I know? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bumped up as the 200 day moving average is proving to be resistance to go lower for now. If the VIX can get down to 22 we'd feel good about trying the SPY puts. For now it's just another trading day in the summer as we wait for the Fed next week. Earnings for the 2nd quarter are just getting started. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The summer rally is back as the Dow gained 658 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. We had a gap up at the open and then more buying at the close. Retail sales came in better than anticipated. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 along with the other major stock indices have turned back up. The first target for the S&P will be a down trend line at 3910 and then the 50 day moving average at 3940. That is assuming todays price action was not something option expiration related. There is the chance that the longer term decline is over for good but we'll find out more as the summer moves along. Gold was off a couple bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My GDX September calls are back to what I paid for them. It appears that I'm early on this trade. Todays retail sales data also puts in question my view of a negative 2nd quarter GDP rport. GDX does remain both short and medium term oversold so at least the trade has that going for it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped over 2 points and is close to the 200 day moving average. The short term indicators have rolled back down and that implies higher stock prices in the near term. 22 on the VIX is the number that we're looking for to try the SPY puts again. That is the final resistance trend line there. A break below that number would say the bear market is over according to the VIX. Plenty of work to do this weekend to try and figure out where we go from here. I'm looking for a near term rally but I suppose earnings will have a lot to say about that. A week and a half until the Fed. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Once again we had a gap lower at the open and spent the rest of the day making up lost ground. The Dow fell 142 points on what is now considered average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is rolling over. The NASDAQ eeked out a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. Producer inflation data was hotter than expected but there was no follow through selling after the open. So the market is trying its best not to collapse here. I'm not sure if it means a rally is coming or if it's just option expiration week related. We'll know as time moves on. I am still looking for lower prices in the autumn but I could be wrong. Gold dropped around thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 4 3/4, while GDX dropped 1 1/8. Volume was heavy to the downside. Perhaps this is the final washout for the gold shares. I did place an order for the GDX September calls overnight in case we got a huge drop. We did and the order was filled. It is showing a small profit. The stop loss order is in. This trade seems like the proverbial catch a falling knife scenario. The gold shares are overblown to the downside. The Gold/XAU ratio is very high. GDX is both short and medium term oversold. I might be early on this particular idea. But I believe that after the Fed meeting we'll get the 2nd quarter GDP report which will show a negative print. If that occurs I think the dollar will start to fall and gold will see a comeback. We're still a couple of weeks away but when I placed the order last night I really did not think it would get filled. However the gold shares gapped lower like the overall stock market and now we're in the trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today despite the drop in stocks. Once again I'm not sure what that means but the daily chart looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators for the VIX are turning back down. This would imply higher stock prices going forward. We'll see. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of Japan. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Inflation came in hotter than expected at over 9% but the markets held up pretty well. The Dow fell 208 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. There was a big gap down at the open but no follow through as we traded back and forth for the rest of the day. The Dow was the under performer. When the market holds up in the face of bad news, that's usually a bullish sign. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still pointing down at mid-range levels. I'm not saying we are going to get some kind of strong rally here but I don't things are about to fall apart again either. I do think that we'll be marking time until the Fed meeting in a couple weeks. The summer doldrums could show up next week. Gold was up $7 on the futures as it made a comeback today as well. The US dollar was slightly lower while interest rates were mixed. All in all we did not see big sustained market reactions to the inflation report. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was good for a change. I'm still considering the August or September GDX calls since the gold shares are so blown out to the downside. However the longer term RSI signal does not look like it will happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around and ended the day lower which doesn't fit with a down market. Not sure what to make of that. The Bollinger bands on the VIX are starting to contract which implies a big move coming there one way or the other. Still more economic data to sift through the remaining 2 days this week along with the start of earnings season. I'm on the sidelines for now. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower in Wednesdays trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Selling ahead of tomorrows inflation data as the Dow fell 192 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index has stalled. The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices. The 50 day moving averages have proven to be resistance so far. Tomorrows price action should tell us where we're heading in the near term. The recent light volume really doesn't give us confidence one way or the other. We'll see what the reaction is tomorrow and go from there. Gold dropped another 8 bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat and interest rates declined. The XAU fell almost 2 points while GDX lost 3/8. Volume remains light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and that fits a down market. There's plenty of room to go higher on the daily indicators here. The VIX seems to be telling us that a decline is here and it will continue. But the market goes where it wants. 3 days to go in the July option cycle. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Negative price action to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 164 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now barely moving higher. We were hoping for the market to hold up in front of Wednesdays inflation data but that isn't going to happen. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. Today the NASDAQ led the way down. We are going to learn a lot about where we're going this week. If things can hold in there, we'll be seeing higher prices moving forward. But if we drop this week it's probably the start of another wave down and the bear market will continue. Stay tuned. Gold dropped a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. I'm still looking at the August and September GDX calls. Waiting on the longer term signal for this idea. May or may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up and the short term indicators here turned back up. My feeling is that the VIX could go either way here but we'll see. 2nd quarter earnings start this week and that will be another driver of stock prices. For now it's all about the inflation report on Wednesday. The recent light volume is both a sign of summer trading and the lack of conviction among the players. Europe was down and so was Asia with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday in the summertime describes todays market action. The Dow fell 46 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving up. The jobs report came in better than expected and we bounced around for the session. The NASDAQ posted a slight gain. The S&P 500 is barely short term overbought. The light volume says there were not a lot of sellers. There is a down trend line and the 50 day moving average at around 3970. That would be the spot to try the SPY puts but there is only a week left in the July option cycle. So the risk would be pretty high. If the S&P does rally to the 50 day ahead of Wednesdays inflation data perhaps we'll give that idea a try. We'll double check things over the weekend. Gold was flat today. The US dollar was slightly lower and came off of the best levels for the session. Interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Light volume was the theme for the day. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped even though we didn't see a rally for stocks. Not sure what that means. Closer here now to the 200 day moving average resistance. Maybe things will somehow set up for a short term trade next week. We'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a viable game plan for option expiration week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The summar rally continues as the Dow jumped 346 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ leading the way is bullish. Getting short term overbought but not there yet. The next goal will be to make it past 50 day moving averages for the stock indices. If we keep moving up like today, that won't be a problem. There is other overhead resistance but one step at a time. Could the bear market be over? Yes, there is that possibility but I'm holding out for lower prices in the autumn. We'll let the markets dictate the action and right now it's for higher prices. A rally ahead of tomorrows jobs report says whatever we get there shouldn't be a problem. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates rose. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. Still waiting on the longer term buy signal for GDX here. May or may not occur. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped and closed below the first line of resistance. This implys more rally for stocks. It is short term oversold now but in rallies the VIX remains that way. Plenty of room before the next resistance line at 21 but it will have to get through the 200 day moving average at 24 before that. My guess is that we're in a bear market rally until things turn back down again. With the caveat that the decline could be over and the bottom is in. It is not a clear cut picture either way at the moment for the longer term prognosis. The recent resilience of the small stocks is a boost for the bulls. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the first week in July tomorrow.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 70 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to move higher. Waiting on the jobs report for now. The S&P 500 is stalling at the first down trend line but I believe that we'll make it through. Not yet short term overbought here. Gold dropped another $25. The US dollar continued higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. They both finished well up from the lows of the day. We did not get the RSI buy signal we were looking for yet but today could be the low for GDX. We'll know as time goes on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. My feeling is that we are on the verge of an upside break out for the major stock indices. I do believe that things are in place for that. We'll know within the next couple of days as some indices are resting right below their first lines of resistance. Europe was higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We had a huge gap down at the open but the market clawed its way back for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 129 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ was the clear out performer and the S&P 500 made it back to the black as well. I am considering getting some SPY July calls if we get some weakness again before Fridays employment report. My thinking is that we are going to get through the first down trend line for the S&P and then head to the next one at around 4000. It might be too late though as the call option premiums have already moved up. Gold got clobbered today and lost its near term support at $1790. The precious metal futures dropped $35. The US dollar was higher yet interest rates continue to fall. The XAU fell six points, while GDX shed 1 1/4. Volume was good to the downside. There is a longer term RSI indicator for GDX that is almost down to where we can anticipate a bounce. If the indicator gets there, we will try the near term GDX calls. Hasn't happened yet but 2 or 3 more down days for the gold shares will get us there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but came back down from the top of todays range. This is implying a lower VIX going forward which would fit with a near term rally for stocks. The VIX is short term oversold here though. The out performance of the small stocks here is a change from what we've seen. It leads me to believe that the summer rally is still in place. The summation index trying to turn around now is another factor to consider. We also have a bottom above a bottom on the daily stock index charts. The fact that todays decline didn't hold is another plus for the bulls near term. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the evenings headlines.

A bullish start to the month of July as the Dow gained 321 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We now have the potential to continue the summer rally as there are bottoms above bottoms on the S&P 500 daily chart. The short term indicators there have also turned back up. Perhaps this time we can make it back to the first down trend line that comes in at around 4000. We'll have to wait and see what happens but I'm looking for higher prices going forward. Gold was off a buck but did bounce from the lows of the session at around $1790. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continued to drop. The XAU gained 3 points, while GDX was up 3/4. Volume was good here to the upside as buyers finally showed up for the gold shares. Could the decline here be finally over? It is possible with both the short and medium term time frames oversold. I am looking at the August and September GDX calls. I'm not in any hurry though as the confidence level of my ideas is certainly at a low. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped on the rally and that makes perfect sense. Still not through the first line of resistance at 26 but another day like today would do it. That would fit in with the summer rally theme that we are looking for. The short term indicators for the VIX are getting to short term oversold though. I'll mention the fact that bonds have made quite a move higher in the past couple of weeks yet interest rates are supposed to keep increasing. That does not fit the normal relationship and something will have to give one way or the other going forward. A long summer weekend and plenty of charts to go over as well. Perhaps we'll come up with an idea for the remaining two weeks in the July option cycle. Asia was lower and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower to finish the month of June as the Dow fell 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The inflation data came in where expected but we opened with a big gap down. The market spent the rest of the session trying to recover and did an admiral job as we did not finish anywhere near the lows of the day. I'm thinking that we will move higher from here. The NASDAQ led the way down but again, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. One day left for trading this week before a long summer holiday weekend. My guess is that tomorrow will be a light volume affair. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued their drop. The XAU shed 4 2/3, while GDX lost over a point. Volume was average. The gold shares are blown out to the downside and the support at 29 for GDX did not hold. Both the daily and weekly charts for GDX are oversold. GDX will be closing below the 200 week moving average. Oversold and staying that way for the gold shares. Yes I'm looking at the GDX September calls but there is absolutely no interest right now in owning any gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today as it clings to the 50 day moving average. I'm not getting any ideas which way the VIX is going to go. The resistance line at 26 that began in April is still in place. The first half of the year was rough for the bulls as we've entered a bear market. How much longer and lower is now the question. There is a chance that it is over as we came close to the 3600 measuring objective of the head and shoulders top put in on the S&P 500. However I remain in the camp for lower prices going forward into the fall. I could be wrong and was quite a lot when it came to trading in the first half. We are in the process of regrouping and trying to come out with better second half results. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of China. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was simply a day of hanging around as the Dow gained 82 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The move higher in the summation index has stalled. We'll get some inflation data tomorrow and my guess is that we'll move one way or the other on that. It's also the end of the month etc. so there will be that to contend with as well. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 finished about unchanged. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so we could go either way. My guess is that we'll be heading lower on the inflation data but I do not have any SPY puts to back that up. Gold was off a couple bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 3/8. Volume remains light here. The gold shares have under performed the precious metal by quite a lot lately. Not sure if it's an end of the quarter situation or what. The Gold/XAU ratio is the highest that it has been in quite some time. Either gold has to begin to drop or the gold shares have to rally to alleviate that situation. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it is hovering around its 50 day moving average. Tomorrow should get things going one way or the other. I think most of the action will take place on Thursday as we have a long holiday weekend on the horizon and traders will most likely be leaving early on Friday. Europe and Asia were both down overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 491 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up but barely now. We were hoping things would hold up before the inflation data on Thursday but it was not to be. Once again the NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The S&P 500 didn't make it back to the near term down trend line again. The short term techncial indicators here are starting to roll over and they didn't make it to overbought. Maybe we'll get some good news and things will turn back up because that would be the shortest summer rally on record. Gold was off a few bucks. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU lost 3 1/4, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume here remains light. I sold the GDX July calls that I had for a 95% loss. The goal for the trading year was to not take big losses like that and I failed. There is no point in having trading rules if you can't follow them. The first half of the year has been an abysmal effort with many more losses than gains on the trading front. This particular GDX trade never had a chance as it was a loser practically from the get go. I'm not sure why the gold shares are doing so poorly as some indicators are flashing buy signals for them. However on the daily chart GDX has just achieved the death cross, with the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200 day. I am tempted to try the GDX September calls here but perhaps the better alternative is to take a step back and regroup for the second half of the year. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced today on the decline in stocks. The short term indicators here are starting to turn back up which would imply more selling in the near term. Not sure what to expect here as the VIX didn't make it back to the near term resistance line. Perhaps things are weaker than they appear. I'm not sure and it looks like I'll be on the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were higher. We'll see if they follow the US lower tonight.

Some selling to begin the week as the Dow fell 62 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Back and forth again today with no real conviction either way. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Were getting to the first down trned lines for the major indices so some hesitiation is not out of the question. We are hoping the market holds up ahead of Thursdays inflation data so that we may try the SPY July puts. That will also mark the end of the month, 2nd quarter and the 1st half of the year. Gold was off six bucks on the futures. The dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU had a fractional gain and GDX had a fractional loss. Volume was on the light side. I'm still holding the GDX July calls that I have but I don't know why. They are dead in the water and will not be coming back. Should have dumped them long ago but when you don't follow the rules, you pay the price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. Getting close to the resistance line at 26. If the VIX gets through there the rally will continue and if not we'll see some selling. The short term indicators are close to mid-range so it's anyones guess which way it goes here. My thinking is that we'll see some selling on the inflation data Thursday but it's only Monday. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The summer rally is on as the Dow climbed 823 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The S&P 500 has already made it past the 3900 level. The next line of resistance comes in just above 4000. That will probably more of a test to get through. There is a chance that the low is in for the downturn that began in the begining of the year. We did not make it down to 3600 on the S&P but did get pretty close. I'm still in the camp that we'll be heading back down once this rally runs its course but I could be wrong. The small stocks are leading the way here and that's a plus. The NASDAQ is on the verge of breaking a resistance line from the beginning of April on the daily chart. There are still way too many bears out there at the moment. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 3 1/2, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was light. I did place a limit order to sell my GDX July calls but it wasn't filled. I'll try again on Monday. This trade will be a loser it is just a matter of by how much. For now the 29 level has held for GDX and it is the logical spot to try the GDX calls. However with a losing trade in hand I will probably sit it out for attempting GDX here again from the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and we're getting closer to the near term resistance line at 26. That would be the spot to try the SPY July puts but with the turning of the summation index back up I'm not so sure that would be a good idea. Especially if the NASDAQ breaks above its down trend line from April. I get the feeling that we are in for a decent rally here as the market has already moved up quite well. Not sure what to make of the volume numbers today. But we'll have to see where it goes from here. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were both higher to finish out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher today as the Dow was up 194 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn back up. It was a back and forth session but we did finish in the black. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to move higher. I still think that we're on our way to the 3900 level in the near term. If we get there we'll consider the SPY July puts. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continued to fall. The XAU lost 4 1/2, while GDX fell 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX July calls are dead. I didn't even follow my own rules with a stop loss order. Pitiful. Not a lot of money involved but still. Probably will sell them tomorrow before the weekend. GDX closed below the 29 level, which is where I should have waited it to get to. But it loos like 29 will not hold as the gold shares are extremely weak for some reason. We are getting some blown out oversold readings for the gold complex relating to the gold shares. However the stocks here keep selling. I do think that it is time to buy GDX but with a losing trade in hand I will most likely remain on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually a bit higher today which certainly doesn't fit with an up market. Not sure what to make of that. Still above the 50 day moving average on the VIX. The line of resistance to move lower comes in at 26 and the VIX is currently at 29. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

We opened with a gap lower, traded higher for most of the session and then dropped again in the final hour. The Dow fell 47 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Still short term oversold for the S&P 500. The market had to deal with the Fed speaking to Congress today and there were no new revelations. I'm still looking for the decline to take a break here and the S&P to trade up to at least the 3900 level. Oversold for too long in my humble opinion. Gold was up a buck on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. No interest in owning the gold shares. My GDX July calls dropped again and I've already got too big a loss on this idea. GDX would have to turn around in a hurry and the daily chart looks like it's about to move lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators imply that it has plenty of room to go down. Whether or not that occurs is another question. The market has a summer feel to it already but not the doldrums just yet. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes on Thursday.

The first day of summer and a rally begins. The Dow gained 641 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but another day like today would start to change things. Monday was a market holiday so we'll have a short trading week. It's 2 days in a row up for the S&P and the NASDAQ. Most likely some kind of bottom is in place. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are still oversold so we've got room to move higher. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average. Resistance begins to come in at around 3900 and then the down trend line after that. But perhaps we can get some break from the selling in the near term. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light as there is not interest in the gold shares. My GDX July calls are solid losers and perhaps I should just take the 50% loss right here. I'll give it until the end of the week so see if they come to life. Doubtful. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and we're still on the overbought side here in the short term. Plenty of room for the indicators to move lower. It was a great start to the week in the stock market for the bulls. We did get blown out to the downside on most indicators last week. Never did get to 3600 on the S&P but got close which is the level I'm still looking for at some point. But for now we'll be looking at today as the start of some kind of summer rally back up to the resistance zones. After that, who knows? Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A relatively quiet expiration Friday as the Dow fell 38 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. It was a mixed bag with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The S&P remains short term oversold so I do believe that some kind of bounce is coming. We're still waiting for the 3600 level there and then we'll decide what to do after that. Other indices have lower measuring targets for their head and shoulders tops so we could go into wait and see mode. Higher interest rates don't bode well for equities going forward either. But the market goes where it wants and we're very oversold on many time frames. Gold dropped ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up today along with interest rates. The XAU lost almost 2 points, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. My GDX July calls are back to losers as we roll into the July option cycle. This trade might have a chance if we see some upside next week. But the fundamentals for gold are negative for now just like the stock market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX headed back down today and the daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. That would support some kind of bounce for stocks if it occurs. The short term indicators for the VIX are trying to roll over. Summer is approaching and we'll have to see if the doldrums set in or the volatility remains. We'll also be looking for some kind of summer rally. Trading could get thin as players go on vacation and there is no compelling reason to buy stocks at the moment. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as the work must be done regardless. Europe and Asia ended the week mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 741 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 got close to the 3600 level that we've been looking for. It remains short term oversold. It didn't close on the lows for the day for a change. Buyers are scarce. There is a worldwide heading for the exits in stocks as rates rise and inflation is the main concern. We are blown out to the downside again and some kind of relief rally is overdue and I mean for more than a day. The S&P remains pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Expiration Friday on tap and who knows what will go on there? Gold attracted buyers as the futures rose $35. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. Gold and bonds finally got a flight to safety bid. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was good here. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. Maybe we can get a rally going but the gold shares should have done better with gold up $35. Perhaps we can blame that on the overall market decline today. My GDX July calls made it back to break even. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved back up but did finish off of the highs for the session. Not sure what to expect next here. Remaining short term overbought on the VIX but volatility has been the rule. Europe and Asia were down. Expiration Friday looms and we'll close out another wild week on Wall street tomorrow.

Volatility was the name of the game today as the Dow gained 303 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The Fed raised rates 3/4 of a point and the markets cheered. Counter intuitive to be sure but the bulls will take the rally. We did get a signal again last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move and we saw it today. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. Despite todays gains the S&P 500 remains short term oversold. We're still pretty far from the 50 day moving average here. Short covering today no doubt as there are still many questions to be answered regarding where we go from here. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. None of that makes any sense with higher rates from the Fed but this is what markets are made of. The XAU was up 1 1/4, wiht GDX gaining almost 1/2. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are still losers. The daily chart for GDX is still oversold and shows a potential positive divergence on the RSI. So perhaps I can break even on this trade but I wouldn't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sunk today and the short term indicators turned lower. It might mean that the decline is over but I'm not sure yet. Another positive day like today would be a step in the right direction for the bulls. However todays price action had the tone of a relief rally more than anything else. Sure we can build on it but that remains to be seen for now. Only a couple of days left this week and Friday is options expiration. More volatility would be no surprise. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow lost 152 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving down. Producer prices came in where expected. The NASDAQ sported a small gain on the day so perhaps there's some hope for the bulls. The S&P 500 is now short term oversold. At least some kind of bounce is due but we'll have to see how the market reacts to whatever the Fed has in store tomorrow. The S&P is once again pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that is a condition that won't last. At any rate tomorrow promises not to be boring. Gold dropped another twenty bucks on the futures as it approaches the $1800 level. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Rinse and repeat there. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. My GDX July calls are now losers and I am seriously considering just bailing out of this idea. A stronger dollar with rising interest rates is not the backdrop for higher gold prices. Still no flight to safety for bonds or gold. In retrospect I should have simply remained on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped with a drop in stock prices and that does not fit. Getting to short term overbought for the VIX. Not sure what to expect from here. We're back down through the zero line on the summation index and we've already seen things fall apart. We're still looking for the 3600 level measuring objective from the head and shoulders top for the S&P. Don't know if we'll get there this time around. Asia was generally down and Europe lower as well. We'll see what the Fed has to say and then what the market says tomorrow.

Down we go as stocks got crushed again today. The Dow fell 876 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 17 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower and about to cross the zero line again to the downside for the 3rd time since the beginning of the year. This type of action is normally unheard of. Everything is being sold as the S&P 500 just closed with a loss of over 20% from the top which is the common definition of a bear market. That head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart is valid and the measuring objective of 3600 is in sight. At this rate it feels like we'll go lower than that. The NASDAQ was off over 500 points today and led the way lower. There doesn't appear to be any relief in sight. We'll get producer prices inflation data tomorrow and then the Fed on Wednesday. No positive bias for option expiration week this time around unless we see some kind of relief rally. However the decline seems to be feeding on itself. Gold got clobbered today as well with the futures off fifty bucks. The US dollar soared along with interest rates. The XAU fell 9 1/8, while GDX lost 2 1/8. Volume was heavy. The GDX daily candlestick chart that looked so bullish on Friday now has a different tone. However I did place an order for the GDX July calls this morning and it eventually got filled. It somehow held its value despite GDX continuing to drop and the price on the calls is where I purchased them. This is a dangerous trade even though it has a lot of time left. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off today and closed above the 34 level. Not quite yet short term overbought here on the techncial indicators. No doubt that it's going to get there. The question is just how high is this indicator going to go? We are obviously in a market free fall. There is no good news on the horizon that can be seen right now. Margin calls are forcing the selling of whatever you have to cover. The US dollar is finding buyers but the other usual safe havens of gold and bonds aren't. The next couple of days could get intense as inflation and the Fed meeting take center stage. It doesn't look like the Fed can save things this time around. The carnage is worldwide as Asia and Europe sold off to begin the trading week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Well I guess it wasn't too late for the SPY puts after all. The Dow fell 880 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative again. The summation index is now moving lower. The inflation data came in hotter than expected and the market opened with a gap down. We bounced around the rest of the session and closed near the lows for the day. The NASDAQ led the way lower. It looks like we'll be testing the May lows for the S&P 500 next week. Not completely oversold on the short term indicators there. Looks like we'll be heading lower near term and we have the Fed next week to contend with. Perhaps the S&P will finally close in bear market territory. Gold rallied on the news eventually and the futures were up over twenty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. That did not stop gold from rising and that is a change from recent behavior. The XAU was up 5 3/4, while GDX soared 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the upside. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bullish engulfing pattern on it and the short term indicators are moving up. This appears to be the beginning of a move higher that I think is worth chasing. I'll now be looking at getting some GDX July calls on any weakness next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved up but did finish off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators here still have a lot of room to go up. If they continue to move higher the stock market will continue to move lower. The medium term signals on the VIX are also starting to turn back up as well. If this continues we'll see new lows in the major indices. That appears to be where we are headed. A week left in the June option cycle as next week should be a doozy. Plenty to ponder this weekend. Europe and Asia were both down to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

No need to wait for tomorrows inflation data as the Dow sold off to the tune of 638 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. Buyers disappeared in the last couple of hours. The NASDAQ led the way down. The S&P 500 did not make it back to the down trend line like we were looking for. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over after today. The sideways pattern here broke to the downside. Too late for the June SPY puts now in my opinion. Tomorrow should be interesting. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up a bit. The XAU dropped about 5 points, while GDX slid 1 1/4. Volume was average. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the August or September calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed today with the drop in stocks. The short term indicators have turned up but they remain overbought. If this is just the beginning of a VIX rise, stocks will be going a lot lower. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. But it looks like we're heading lower from here and perhaps the TRAN was the canary in the coal mine. The major averages remain in a tops beneath tops and bottoms below bottoms configuration. That implys bearish outcomes and lower prices going forward. However we also know to expect anything in this game so things could just as easily turn around tomorrow. But I doubt it. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how markets react to the inflation report tomorrow.

Lower today as the Dow fell 269 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower. Still moving sideways here as it is trying to make up its mind which way to go. Despite todays drop the S&P remains short term overbought. The TRAN took a hit today which could cause trouble for the bulls going forward. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on Fridays inflation report. Gold finished up a couple bucks. The US dollar was a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Remaining on the sidelines for any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit lower today despite the drop in equity prices. That does not fit the usual relationship. Remaining short term oversold here and this won't last forever. Not sure where the VIX goes from here. We're still waiting for the S&P to get back to the next line of resistance that now stands at around 4225. The S&P has trended sideways for about 2 weeks as it decides what to do next. Only 7 days left in the June option cycle so the risk on doing something here is pretty high. We'll try and stay patient to wait for the opportune time. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

To the upside today as the Dow gained 264 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move and today qualifies as that. The gains were spread out to all the major stock indices. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Waiting for SPY to get above the 420 level before thinking about trying the June puts there. Volume has been lacking on this rise. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares are trending sideways. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX dropped below resistance today and that's a plus for stocks. It remains short term overbought and staying that way which usually means higher equity prices. The next resistance comes in at the 200 day moving average and then the final trend line at the 20 level. If it somehow goes straight down to 20, that would be the ideal time to try the index puts. The market rarely cooperates with the best laid plans so I would not hold my breath for this one. The Russell 2000 is acting better here and it led the way down and perhaps is now leading the way up. However the volume remains on the light side and that is not a sign of strength. We cannot argue with price though. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Back and forth was the name of the game today as the Dow was up 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ out performed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and moving sideways for now. The next line of resistance for the SPY comes in at 425 so it's a waiting game at the moment. Inflation data due out on Friday. Gold was off six bucks on the session. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was pretty light here. Light volume here shows a general lack of interest for gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up just a bit and remains short term overbought. It is still above the short term line of resistance to move lower. A break of this line would bode well for stocks in the near term but it hasn't happened yet. Just under two weeks left in the June option cycle. I'd like to say I have a good idea of where we're going next but I don't. As long as the summation index is moving up we'll have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. If we make it up to the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 I'll consider the SPY June puts. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Stocks retreated today as the employment report came in a bit better than expected. The Dow fell 348 points on light volume. Light volume shows little interest so it wasn't a rush to the exits. But not a lot of buyers around either. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to move up and has now passed upwards through the zero line. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Despite todays drop the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Ditto for most of the major stock averages. A couple of weeks left in the June option cycle. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was off 3 1/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was light. The gold shares continue to mirror the overall stock market. June in general isn't usually a good month for gold appreciation. I'll probably look out to future months for the GDX calls at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only slightly higher with todays market drop. The line of resistance to from April to move lower remains in effect but the daily chart still looks like it wants to go down. The VIX remains short term overbought. This weeks price action can be described as a digestion of last weeks big rally if you're a bull. The bearish case would be that there was no upside follow through to the gains. The week was basically sideways. We'll probably know more as we move on but continuing sideways would not come as a surprise as the market tries to make up its mind what to do here. I'll try and remain patient for the S&P to make it back up to resistance and go from there. We'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual. Asia higher and Europe lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 435 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. It appears that the next stop for the S&P will be the next down trend line and 50 day moving average at roughly 4250. Recently the McClellan oscillator hit a reading above the +300 level which is usually the sign of the beginning of an extended rally. We are in that mode now. We also had other extreme negative readings on some indicators at the last low put in a couple of weeks ago that suggests that perhaps the bottom for the decline that began in January is in. I'm still believing that we'll see lower prices later this summer but the market could prove me wrong. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar dropped and interest rates remained steady. The XAU jumped seven points, while GDX added over 1 1/3. Volume was average. It appears that the gold shares are following the stock market higher now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues to drop and is sitting at trend line resistance that began in April. Another day like today will take the resistance out. Short term overbought on the VIX as well. It certainly has the feel that it will continue lower and stocks continue higher. Perhaps the employment numbers won't matter but we'll wait and see on that. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how the short trading week finishes tomorrow.

We had a one day reversal to the downside as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 176 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. The S&P 500 led the way lower today. Still short term overbought for the S&P. The declines so far this week seem like a digestion of the recent gains more so than a resumption of the overall down trend. We'll know more as the week goes on and we get the reaction to the employment report on Friday. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold finished relatively flat on the session. The US dollar and interest rates were higher again. The XAU was up a point and GDX added 1/4. Volume was light. GDX remains more overbought than oversold on the short term indicators. Remaining patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually lower today which doesn't fit a down market. It also closed below the 50 day moving average. It is short term oversold but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. It will certainly be something to keep an eye on for the rest of the week. Waiting on Fridays jobs report for now. The economic data out today was mixed. My thinking is that we'll see higher to sideways prices for a while to get the summation index back above the zero line and positive once again. That's my best guess at the moment. After that, who knows? I'm still in the camp for lower prices later this summer with the same target of 3600 for the S&P. However if we make it through the 200 day moving average and the final down trend line for the S&P, that theory will be proven wrong. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Some selling as traders returned to their desks as the Dow fell 222 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. Not the worst session in the world as the Dow led the way lower. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought on some but not all of the indicators. We started going straight up last week and that cannot last forever. Plenty of overhead resistance for the S&P with the next down trend line coming in at around 4250. End of the month today and a short trading week. Jobs report due out on Friday. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold dropped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 1/3, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was about average. It appears that the short term indicators for the gold shares are rolling over. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but just slightly. The 50 day moving average is still resistance for this indicator to move lower for now. Getting oversold on some of the short term indicators as well. My thinking was that the 50 day would not hold up but I could be wrong. That would imply more selling going forward. We'll know by the end of the week. I'd expect positive money flows though since tomorrow is the beginning of a new month. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

The rally continued today as the Dow gained 575 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher with gusto. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus for the bulls. It has been a very good week for stocks. The S&P is climbing back towards the 50 day moving averge but resistance begins at 4200. There's also the next down trend line and the 50 day at 4275. At the rate we're going you'd expect things to just move past these levels next week though I don't think we are simply heading straight up but I could be wrong. Not sure how much of today is short covering ahead of a long holiday weekend as the markets are closed on Monday. The S&P is not yet short term overbought but it's getting there. Thw weekly indicators have turned up for the S&P. Another week like this and the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P will be negated. Gold was up about ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. Getting to short term overbought for the gold shares but not there yet. Staying patient with regards to trading the GDX again here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 50 day moving average. This area has proven to be resistance for the VIX to move lower for the past month. I get the feeling that it will break lower this time around with just the way the market has all of a sudden lost its sellers. Still above 20 for the VIX and there's other resistance to be found going forward. But we'll let the market tell the story as I don't want to get caught up in trying to be right about the S&P getting down to 3600. It could be that we've seen to low for this down draft and not close at a bear market level for the S&P 500. A similar thing happened at the end of 2018. We'll see. Plenty to ponder over the long weekend. We'll be checking the charts as usual. Europe and Asia finished the week with gains. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Finally some kind of rally is taking place as the Dow gained 517 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way up. A bottom is in place for now. The S&P 500 broke through the first down trend line of resistance. The short term indicators here are moving forward. Other indices have broken through the near term resistance as well. We are making our way back towards the 50 day moving averages for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 has plenty of resistance at the next down trend line and congestion at around the 4200 level. That's the next stop in my view and we'll see what happens when we get there. It is possible that the down trend in stocks is over but I'm not in that camp. I still think a trip down to the 3600 level for the S&P is what's in store. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The gold shares remain stuck below their 200 day moving averages for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today but remains above its 50 day. Not yet completely oversold here. The major stock indices have found buyers here and it could last for a while. However if the head and shoulders pattern on the S&P weekly chart is valid, there's more room to go lower as we move out in time. I'm guessing we'll trend higher and sideways for a while until we reach the next resistance. What happens there will be the next key. We did just reach some very oversold conditions that usually mark market bottoms with levels of bearishness at extremes. We'll need some time to work that off before heading down again if my view is correct but of course I could be wrong. The market goes where it wants. Asia was mixed and Europe higher again. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was another day of back and forth as the Dow gained 191 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher. The S&P 500 is now at the first down trend line on the daily chart and the short term indicators are pointing up. Another day like today will get us through that line and that would be the first step to higher prices going forward. I still think that we've got to move back towards the 50 day moving average before we get another leg lower. Or perhaps the decline is over as we don't know what the future holds. But for now we'll see if we can get through this first line of resistance. Gold lost $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. They are stuck at their 200 day moving averages. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a higher market. I get the feeling it will make it past the 50 day moving average this time around. We did recently hit some pretty negative extremes on some of the technical indicators that we follow. So some kind of relief rally is not out of the question and actually overdue. However looking out over the medium term, the measuring objective for the head and shoulders pattern for the S&P 500 on the weekly chart has not been reached yet. We are still looking for 3600 in the months ahead. Patience for now. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Mixed would be the word to describe todays price action as the Dow gained 48 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ lower. The NASDAQ was the clear under performer. However the major indices finished well above their worst levels of the session. That is part of the subtle change that we are seeing now. Sell offs are not continuing into the close for the moment. Buyers are stepping in. This is different from what we've witnessed for the last couple of months. It's one of the reasons why I think the wholesale selling is done for now. I could be wrong. We haven't made it through the first down trend line for the S&P yet. Gold was up over $15 on the futures today. The US dollar was lower again along with interest rates. The XAU was up two points, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. Both the XAU and GDX are challenging their 200 day moving averages. They've both made it past their short term down trend lines but the volume is lacking. The short term indicators here are almost mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. I'm thinking that we'll get back to the 50 day moving average and see what happens there. There's still plenty of bears put there for the advance in stocks to continue in my view. I also believe that we'll see a return towards the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes before we think about selling off again. The market is still coming to grips with the reality of lower expectations from companies as we go forward. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The week begins with a rally as the Dow gained 618 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. We got some follow through upside from Fridays late gains. The Dow led the way which isn't the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll see if we can get through the first down trend line at about 4065 this time around. The S&P needs to head back towards both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and we'll see where we go from there. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates moved up. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Holding off on any GDX trades for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned back down. The VIX appears to be implying higher stock prices in the near term. Can't say that for sure though as it hasn't been able to get back down through its 50 day moving average at 26 lately. We'll see what happens if it gets there. To me it seems that the positive RSI divergences for the major averages will work this time and we'll see higher prices going forward. Not something that turns into a rally back to new highs but something that brings us back to the overhead resistance of which there is plenty. It would also relieve us of some of the extreme bearishness that prevails at the moment. Then perhaps we'll head lower later on as the summer moves on. I'm still looking for at least the 3600 level on the S&P. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A final hour rally brought the major averages back from the brink as the Dow finished with a gain of 8 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues sideways. The S&P 500 made it down 20% intraday but closed above the bear market level. It remains short term oversold. I still think that we are putting in some kind of bottom here and todays price action reinforces that view. The major averages are too far away from their 50 and 200 day moving averages to stay this low for too long. That doesn't mean that the decline is over but we should see some kind of rally or bounce at least back to one of the down trend lines. We're still looking for the S&P to reach 3600 before thinking about putting longer term money to work. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX lost about a dime. Volume remains light here. Perhaps will attempt the GDX June calls but will need to see a pullback in the gold shares from here to consider it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly on the session but dropped well off of its highs for the day. The short term indicators have made it back to mid-range so you can make a case for either direction here. Looking at the major averages it looks to me like we've put in a short term bottom today with hammers on the daily candlestick charts. The are also some potential positve RSI divergences for some of the indices. So I think that we might see some upside next week. Now if things fall apart on Monday and we close lower than todays low, I'll have to change my view. Way too many bears out there at the moment though. We'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another back and forth session with the winding up with a loss of 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The big caps led the way lower today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. Considering yesterdays debacle the price action wasn't all that bad today. We also have the gyrations of option expiration to get through. My guess is that we're putting in a short term bottom here. We'll know in the coming days. Gold rallied today as the economic data for housing came in weak. The precious metal futures gained $25. The US dollar was lower and interest rates retreated slightly. The XAU climbed 6 1/2 and GDX added about 1 3/4. Volume was good to the upside and perhaps a bottom is now in place. I did place an open order for the GDX June calls overnight but it wasn't filled. Probably too late here and GDX didn't make it down to the 29 level. There is a down trend line in place for GDX and we haven't made it through there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with a down market. The Bollinger bands here are getting closer which implies some kind of big move coming in the VIX. I don't know which way. Interesting times. We'll be moving into the June option cycle next week and premiums will be elevated. On the sidelines for now. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday turns out tomorrow.

Back to the downside today as the major averages got clobbered. The Dow dropped 1164 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways after trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 rolled back over. The S&P did not even make it back to the first down trend line on the daily chart. So much for the positive option expiration week bias. Not sure where we go from here in the short term but the market is coming to grips with what inflation will do to company earnings if it persists. The S&P is still pretty far from both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. This cannot last indefinately. Gold fell five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower on a probable flight to safety. The XAU lost over 3 3/4, while GDX shed about 3/4. Volume remains light here. If GDX makes it down to the 29 level I'll probably try the June calls there. Still short term oversold for GDX and getting there on a medium term basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX zoomed higher as it bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators turned around as well. Not sure what to expect next here with the VIX. The Dow and the TRAN both closed at a new low for the decline that began back in January. Other indices came close. I don't think that we'll see another day like today for tomorrows market action but who knows? As always, the market goes where it wants. Asia was generally higher and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 431 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up and are mid-range. The positive expiration week bias seems to be in effect. I'm pretty sure we can say that the decline is over for now. However there is plenty of upside resistance as we make our way higher from here. At some point I'm pretty sure that we'll turn back down to new lows but that could be weeks or a couple of months from now. We'll try and take our cues from the summation index. Gold was flat on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX was flat. Volume remains pretty light for the gold shares as there is no interest after the recent decline. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued down and landed on its 50 day moving average. Not yet short term oversold here. Would like to see it get back to the 20 level in order to purchase some puts. The markets hit negative extremes on numerous indicators recently and it will take some time to work them off. There is a chance that the lows are in for this move down but I don't think so. The easy money is just starting to be pared back. My thinking is that we'll see a lower low sometime in the autumn or sooner and that will be the time to think about putting longer term money to work. I do not have any short term trades in mind right now as we will be moving into the June option cycle next week. We are almost at the first down trend line for the S&P at 4110. We'll see how that goes. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

It was a day of back and forth and the Dow finished with a gain of 26 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trying to stop its decline. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with both the NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 lower. The S&P remains oversold but not extremely so. Option expiration week and perhaps we'll see the usual positive bias. The S&P 500 now has short, medium and long term down trend lines to get through. Plenty of spots to try the SPY puts if you're inclined. Gold was a bit higher on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and has plenty of room to go down as it remains above the 20 level. Ideally we'd like to see it get back to the 200 day moving average and trendline support. That would set us up to try the SPY puts. However the market rarely cooperates. With only 4 days left in the May option cycle I'll most likely stay on the sidelines for now. Perhaps try the GDX June calls but we'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see how thihgs go tomorrow.

We've been looking for some kind of bounce and we saw it today as the Dow gained 466 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to halt its decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Still short term oversold for the major stock indices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up. However one day does not make a rally. But the extreme oversold conditions that we've seen prevail may finally be coming to an end. They have already lasted longer than usual. That doesn't necessarily mean the decline is completely over but perhaps the selling will halt for now. Gold dropped another $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU rose 2 2/3 while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares followed the overall market higher today. I did place an open order for the GDX May calls overnight but canceled it early this morning. Perhaps I'll try the GDX June calls as we move forward. GDX continues to be short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today and the short term technical indicators have moved lower as well. The VIX is sitting on a short term up trend line and if it can break lower from here I'd expect the bounce to continue. My guess is that's what about to happen but I could be wrong. We are overdue for the sellers to take a break though. Option expiration week is upon us. Not sure what to expect this time around. The NASDAQ has been in a bear market and the S&P 500 almost joined it this week. I still think that it is only a matter of time before the S&P gets there. It looks like the weekly S&P 500 chart has a massive head and shoulders top that has been triggered. The measuring objective there would be the 3600 level. That's eventually where I feel this is going. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More selling today but a last hour bounce limited the damage. The Dow fell 103 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues down. Inflation numbers today were par for the course as the market opened lower then bounced around. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed well off of their lows for the session. They remain short term oversold. We're still blown out on the technical indicators as a decline like this renders them moot. Almost got to the 3840 level on the S&P to confirm bear market territory. Although the 20% threshold is arbitrary in reality. It's plain to see that we're in a down market. I'm expecting some kind of decent bounce before option expiration next Friday. Not sure if I'll be able to figure out the timing. Gold fell $30 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates lower. The XAU dropped over 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside again. Both indexes closed up from the worst levels of the day. I did put in an order for the GDX June calls but canceled it during the session. GDX remains oversold and staying that way. On the daily chart here the pattern is a possible measured move down. The measuring objective is 29. If it does make it down there, I may try the GDX May calls again for the bounce. Both gold and silver have broken their longer term support on the daily charts. How low they go is now a guessing game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down. Could the VIX be signaling that this part of the decline is coming to an end? Hard to say as I haven't been able to figure things out here for a while. As I've said, the major stcok indices are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages and in the past that has led to at least some kind of bounce. The question is when and I would not be surprised to see a decent bounce before expiration. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Once again the market tried to rally today but failed. The Dow lost 326 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The inflation data came in a little worse than expected but the market moved higher. However that didn't last and we finished on the lows of the session. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way down and that's a negative. Indicators are blown out to the downside and remain that way. Oversold for weeks on the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500. Almost to the 20% down bear market threshold for the S&P. Option premiums remain high for the SPY. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was steady and interest rates slipped. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX was flat. Volume was a little above average. The gold shares followed the market as they rallied early and then gave it all back. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 70% loss. I had a chance to take the acceptable 50% loss but didn't. This was a trade that never had a chance as it did not show a profit the entire time that I held it. I'd still like to try the gold share calls again but will go out to the June contract if I do. However the market just keeps dropping with no stabaization in sight. Gold itself is not providing the usual safe haven. Interesting times. Mentally I'm disappointed in the latest trade as I did not follow the guidelines to stay away from a big loss. Discipline is one of the keys to the game and if you can't do that you don't have a chance. The VIX was lower today and that market dropped. That doesn't fit. The VIX remains overbought in the short term. Not sure where it is going from here. We'll get more inflation data tomorrow and the odds are it won't be good. We'll see how the market reacts. Seven days to go in the May option cycle. I'll look at things tonight and decide if I want to place another order in GDX. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. Tomorrows another day.

Back and forth was the theme of the day as the Dow fell 85 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains on the day though. The S&P remains oversold as do all of the major stock indices. We'll get inflation data tomorrow and see what happens. The averages are pretty far from their 50 day moving averages on a daily basis so some kind of short covering bounce would not be a surprise. Gold lost support at $1850 as it dropped $15. The US dollar was slightly higher while interest rates were steady. The XAU fell 1 1/2 and GDX lost 1/2. Volume was average. GDX blew through my stop without getting filled. I decided to hang on to it this time around but the loss will be larger than it should be like the last trade that didn't get filled unless we see some kind of quick turnaround in the gold shares. Doubt it. Support has been broken and gold is dropping like a stone. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains overbought. Not sure which way it'll go tomorrow but with the inflation data due out I'd expect volatility to pick up early. We'll have to wait and see. Europe was up last night while Asia was lower with the exception of China. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Look out below as the market continues to fall apart. The Dow fell 653 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The final area of support for the major indices gave way and we'll just have to wait and see where support now shows up. The NASDAQ was once again the leader to the downside. Oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500. The 20% lower bear market there is at around 3840. At this point that seems like only a matter of time. The smaller stock indexes have already lost over 20%. Blown out to the downside on many of the indicators and at areas that usually lead to at least bounces if not rallies themselves. But there are no buyers. Inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Hold on to your seats. Gold got slammed again and the futures dropped thirty bucks. We're at the the support of $1850. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 8 1/2, while GDX sled 2 points. Volume was good to the downside. I did try the GDX May calls again and the order was filled. It's showing a loss already and if the gold shares continue lower with the market this trade will get stopped out tomorrow. I'm considering going out to the June contract for GDX if this trade doesn't work. Silver is at the last area of support and closed below $22. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX climbed higher again and remains short term overbought. It almost closed above the 35 level. Interesting to say the least. There's no reason it can't go higher but stocks are very oversold. Perhaps we'll get some kind of capitulation wash out this week. That's simply a guess because the fundamentals for owning stocks right now are negative. That said, the selling won't go on forever. Below the zero line on the summation index and moving lower. Not often seen but that is what's happening now. Europe and Asia were down as it's a worldwide sell off. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a day of hanging around as we opened lower and stayed that was for much of the session. The Dow fell 98 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but the market did finish up from the worst levels of the day. The employment data came in about where expected. At least the market didn't fall off a cliff like yesterday but it's hard to say where we go from here. The S&P did hold on its recent lows but other indexes did not. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates slightly higher. The XAU lost 2 points while GDX shed 1/3 or so. Volume was lighter here. I did place another order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Gold up and the gold shares down again doesn't inspire confidence in the calls. However the gold shares are being dragged lower by the overall market. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked above 35 early and then turned around to finish lower on the day. It looks like it wants to continue downwards but as we've seen lately anything goes. Not getting a good feel for where the VIX is going. The overall stock market has been oversold for a few weeks now and I'm not sure this will continue except that we're in a down market. We get some good one day rallies but then the sellers return. There is still two weeks left in the May option cycle so there's certainly time remaining for a decent trade. I'll be looking for something over the weekend. We'll be getting some inflation data next week and that is sure to be a market mover. For now we'll look ahead to checking the charts on Saturday and Sunday to come up with some new ideas. Europe and Asia were both lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got pummeled today as the Dow fell 1063 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index has turned back down. The selling was relentless but the market did finish off of the lows. The NASDAQ led the way lower and dropped 5%. Not sure what to make of what's going on here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back down. I don't know what to expect tomorrow. We haven't taken out the lows of Monday yet but a repeat of today would do it. A very volatile and unstable atmosphere at the moment. Gold was actually up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was back up and interest rates were higher as well. The gold shares followed the market lower as the XAU lost 5 1/2 while GDX shed 1 1/8. Volume was good on the way down. I did place an order for some GDX May calls again but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. I might try this again tomorrow if we see follow through selling in the markets. However there is also the option of simply heading to the sidelines as the volatility has really ramped up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX has bounced off of its 50 day moving average and was up 6 points and now is back over the 30 level. The short term indicators are pointing back up as the volatility takes over again. Up 900 one day, down a thousand the next is a tough market to make out. However we are below the zero line in the summation index and that remains a pretty big negative. We've got the jobs report tomorrow and it's anybodies guess what the market will do after that. I'll go over the charts tonight and decide if I want to make a trade tomorrow and hold it over the weekend. Europe was lower last night with Asia mixed and still with some markets closed there. We'll close out a crazy week tomorrow.

A huge move higher today as the Dow jumped 932 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. Rates rose as expected from the Fed. Later the Fed chair jawboned the markets higher with his comments. Truth be told the market was so bearish it only had one way to go. Short covering today again to be sure. However rallies that spring out of nowhere are bear market characteristics, even if the S&P 500 hasn't reached that stage yet. Some of our technical indicators were at bear market extreme levels so moving higher is not a surprise. Maybe we can make it back up to one of the down trend lines for the S&P and then try the SPY puts before the May option cycle ends. The short term indicators for the S&P have now turned back up. The NASDAQ barely led the way higher today but it's still a plus. We'll remain patient for now. Gold advanced $14 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained almost 3 points, while GDX was up over 2/3. Volume was good. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this opportunity for now. The short term indicators for GDX have also turned back up. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I took the loss on the GDX call trade Monday when it blew through my stop limit order, while at the same time I had another buy order for the GDX calls that wasn't filled even though it hit the trade price. Needless to say that trade would have already more than doubled. But we're at the mercy of the computers now in the game and sometimes things just don't work out. The VIX dropped today and it's looking like we're heading back down to the support line for this indicator. That would coincide with a rally in stocks. Ideally we'd get to the support line for the VIX at the same time we reach the down trend resistance line for the S&P. That would be the set up for the SPY puts. The markets rarely cooperate. Next up is Fridays employment report. Europe and Asia were lower, with parts of Asia still on holiday. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow was up 67 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The S&P 500 led the way today but is still short term oversold. Not sure what the reaction will be tomorrow as it is already a foregone conclusion that rates will go up 1/2 a point. We'll just wait and see what the market has in store for us. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a touch lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares have out performed the precious metal for the past couple of sessions. GDX is still short term oversold. I did place another order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is we get some selling after the Fed and the order gets filled. My feeling is that the decline in the gold shares is over. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators have rolled over. It appears to be saying that higher stock prices are on the way. Some of our indicators for the market are so blown out to the downside that a rally here would be no surprise. However it must also be said that in down markets things stay oversold longer than you think. I guess we'll see what the market reaction to the Fed is tomorrow and go from there. What was open in Asia was mixed, while Europe was higher. It's a waiting game for now.

Buyers showed up today in the final hour and the Dow rose 84 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. We were down for much of the session until the last hour reprieve. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is hanging in there after breaking support. It remains short term oversold. We are overdue for something more than just a bounce. The bearishness is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Perhaps we'll get some kind of relief rally after the Fed on Wednesday. Most of the techncial indicators for the overall market are blown out to the downside. This condition cannot continue indefinately. Option premiums for the SPY remain overpriced due to the volatility. Gold got smashed today as the futures dropped about fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was good. The gold shares did finish up from their lows of the session and held up rather well considering the drop in gold itself. The early drop in GDX blew through my stop limit loss order so I simply bailed out at the market. This caused the loss to be more than the limit price as the trade lost 75%. Not a lot of money involved here but the percentage loss was more than the acceptable limit. But that can happen in fast markets. I did place another order for the GDX calls at a lower strike price but canceled it a few hours later. I'm debating whether I want to try this again or not. Oversold to be sure for the gold shares but gold is down to the support at around $1850 and buyers have disappeared. Silver bounced near the support at $22 today. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX reversed lower today and perhaps is signaling that the decline is over. Perhaps being the key word there. Still short term overbought for the VIX but it is up in the area where it has turned back down recently. Everybody knows the Fed is raising rates on Wednesday so maybe it is already in the markets and the selling will subside. There's still plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Asia had a partial holiday for May day but what was open was lower along with Europe with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how things go tomorrow.