Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Continuing higher as the Dow gained 123 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The overall market fared better than the Dow and that's a plus. What isn't a plus is the negative breadth numbers. However the market keeps plowing ahead and we must respect price. New all time closing highs for the Dow and the S&P 500. I do still want to try the SPY December puts at some point. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with a little room left to the upside for the indicators. Inflation data out tomorrow and that should provide some movement early in the day. However it is right before the Thanksgiving holiday and I expect thin trading. If we continue to move up into the close on a shortened Friday session, I may try those SPY puts. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished slightly higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are at mid-range. Not sure where gold goes next as it has turned into a headline driven commodity for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and remains short term oversold. One of the reasons against taking on a put trade here is the low level of the VIX with room to go lower. Not to mention that this indicator remains comfortably below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. But we do have some other of our indicators that are saying the puts are the way to go at least on a short term basis if we continue higher into the weekend. The trading is never easy. We'll see how things go tomorrow and take it from there. Europe and Asia finished lower on Trump tariff talk. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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