Monday, September 30, 2024
It was a quiet session for much of the last day in September but volatility picked up in the final two hours. The Dow inched up by 17 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting gains. The Fed chairman was giving a speech today and we'll blame the market movements on that. The overbought technical condition for the S&P remains the same. I'm convinced that the SPY October puts will be my next trade. The timing remains the question for now. Might see some beginning of the month money flows into stocks when October begins tomorrow. Fridays jobs report should be a market mover. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU dipped 3 1/2 and GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over and thay have room to go lower. GDX did finish up from the lows of the session though. I'm trying not to consider the GDX calls until it gets back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which fits with an overall positive market at the close. The short term indicators are beginning to stall from their pop higher on Friday. Still short term oversold for the VIX but not completely so. If the VIX cooperates with our plans it will head lower as the market moves higher in the next few days so we can purchase the SPY October puts. Markets rarely cooperate with our best laid plans. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to start the week. China will be on holiday beginning tonight. We'll see how October starts out tomorrow.
Friday, September 27, 2024
A mixed bag to close out the week as the Dow gained 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The inflation data came in where expected. We were higher early in the morning and sold off for the rest of the day. The techncial condition of the S&P hasn't changed. Short term overbought and staying that way for now. I'm still in the camp of trying the SPY October puts at some point in this option cycle. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The gold shares took a breather. The XAU fell 5 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was average. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX now has a bearish shooting star on it. Perhaps the gold shares will now take a much needed rest. But as always markets go where they want. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today as the 200 day average seems to have held once again on the daily chart. Turning up from short term oversold on the indicators which implies higher VIX readings coming. That would not bode well for stocks. It also means that perhaps I've missed the best time to try the SPY October puts as well. But we'll wait and see what happens next week before coming to any conclusions about that idea. One day does not make a trend. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India to finish the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 26, 2024
The day began with a huge gap to the upside but then sellers took over for most of the session. The Dow finished with a gain of 260 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to move back up. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. It remains short term overbought and has stayed that way during rally mode. Waiting on the inflation data out tomorrow which should not pose a problem. I'm on the sidelines for now regarding the SPY options but am still interested at the October puts at some point. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was up 2 1/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was about average. The gold share rally continues and GDX remains short term overbought. Once again I am not going to chase it here but that has been the wrong strategy lately. However for me it it too late to try the call options there now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged. Still short term oversold and still above its 200 day moving average. Not sure what's next here on the VIX. Just waiting on Fridays inflation data and getting this trading week in the books. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Some selling today as the Dow fell 293 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. This should stall the summation index. The Dow was the leader heading lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The S&P 500 had a small loss and the NASDAQ eeked out a tiny gain. The S&P has traveled sideways for a week and remains short term overbought. We'll get some economic data out tomorrow and a lot of Fed speak with numerous speeches. I still favor the SPY October puts at some point. Gold was up another seven bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. They both finished off of their highs for the session. GDX remains short term overbought and I will not chase it here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished about unchanged. Still short term oversold and staying that way. Waiting to see if it can move below the 200 day moving average. It appears that I am just biding my time this week. The inflation data on Friday should be benign and that should be a plus for the market. Any surprises would change the picture. Patience for now and then we'll see about getting some of those SPY puts. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, September 24, 2024
Just another day of hanging around as the Dow gained 83 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a positive. But we didn't have any sort of real rally to the upside. We are grinding our way higher for now. The S&P 500 remains overbought on the indicators for all timeframes. I'm still considering the SPY October puts and am waiting for what I believe to be the right time to purchase them. Trying to remain patient for now. Gold continues to rise as the futures jumped $34. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU climbed 4 3/4, while GDX added a point. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares remain overbought but the fear of an all out war in the Middle East had taken over. I still think that the gold shares are due for some selling but the markets certainly don't listen to me. I won't chase the GDX calls here but of course they can go higher in this kind of environment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower and is still short term oversold. Waiting to see what happens at the 200 day moving average and we are almost there. Asia was generally higher and Europe up overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
Monday, September 23, 2024
A mundane Monday session as the Dow rose 61 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is heading higher. Slight gains for most of the major averages in a sideways trading day. The S&P 500 remains short and medium term overbought. I've kind of decided that I will try the SPY October puts at some point during the October option cycle. Perhaps ahead of Thursdays and Fridays economic reports. September is bucking the negative seasonality trend and I doubt that will last for another month. I do not know what the downside catalyst will be but I'm pretty sure that it's coming. I could be wrong. Gold was up $4 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on about average volume. The gold shares are due for a rest. Middle East tension is now a daily occurence and the lower rate news has already happened. What more good news for gold is out there at the moment? GDX is also both short and medium term overbought but the rally sometimes goes on longer than you think. I'm on the sidelines here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Short term oversold here. Still above the 200 day moving average on the daily chart. A break below there would probably change my mind about trying the SPY October puts. Asia and Europe were higher to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Friday, September 20, 2024
It was a pretty quiet Friday as the Dow was up 38 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The S&P 500 posted a small loss and remains short term overbought. Medium term overbought as well here. No overhead resistance for the S&P but I'm not sure how much further we have to the upside for now. All the good news seems to be out. The NASDAQ did not follow the Dow and S&P to new all time highs this week. The TRAN got clobbered today and that is not a positive going forward. So we'll have to wait and see how things unfold heading into the October option cycle. Gold continues to shine as the futures climbed $32 to a new all time high. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates a touch lower. The XAU added 2 1/3 and GDX was up 3/4. Volume was good. Above the 40 level now for GDX and that's a positive. I don't want to chase GDX here but it certainly has room to go higher. Short term overbought but not at extremes. The near term calls are pricey though as we are just moving into the October option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower marketplace. Short term oversold but not completely so on the short term indicators. I'm still not sure what's in store next for the VIX. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as I try and come up with a game plan going forward. The recent losing trade does not help on the confidence factor but it will be forgotten shortly. I'll be going over the charts as usual. Option premiums will be high rolling into a new cycle. I'm not completely sold on this rally but markets as always go where they want. Asia was higher and Europe lower to complete the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 19, 2024
The stock market exploded to the upside on the open with a huge gap higher as the Dow finished with a gain of 522 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way higher and was up around 2 1/2%. The McClellan oscillator signal a couple of days ago was valid with todays price action. Was today a delayed reaction to yesterdays rate cut, overnight foreign money pouring into the US futures or something option expiration week related? Doesn't matter as price is the ultimate judge. New all time highs in the Dow and the S&P. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and will be medium term overbought as well after tomorrow. My SPY September puts went from a gain to a loss overnight. I sold them early this morning for a 65% loss. Yesterday it appeared that this trade had things going for it. Overnight it was destroyed. That is the nature of the game sometimes and you have to simply take the loss and move on. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar was little changed and interst rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX added back 2/3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up. GDX is up against the resistance at the 40 level. My guess is that a pause is due before attempting to clear that area again. Mentally I'm feeling disappointed at yet another losing trade. The short term trades are some of the toughest ones to try but that won't stop us. The VIX was lower and is back below the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have rolled back over to the downside with room to go. The VIX implies higher stock prices yet to come. Expiration Friday on tap and I'll be looking at the October option cycle for the next trade. Asia and Europe had nice gains overnight as money is finding a home in stocks. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Quite a session today on Wall street as the Fed went with a half point cut in rates. This was met with euphoria as the market rallied to a new high. However it then turned into a fight between the bulls and the bears for the final two hours. The Dow finished lower by 103 points on light volume. Looks like it was a sell the news event. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is moving higher. Most of the major averages also had reversals to finish lower on the day. We did receive a signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move in the next two sessions. Not sure if today qualifies but it might. We'll see how things go tomorrow. The NASDAQ led the way down but it wasn't big drop. I did place an order for the SPY September puts overnight. It did get filled on the run up in prices after the Fed announcement. It is somehow showing a small profit but with only two days left in the September option cycle holding on longer than tomorrow would be extremely risky. In fact it could turn into a loser overnight as the volatility in both directions was pretty quick today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but the indicators appear to be rolling over. Gold had a dramatic one day downside reversal after being up big after the Fed announcement The precious metal futures finished lower by $15. The US dollar was up slightly while interest rates closed higher despite a cut in rates from the Fed. The gold shares had incredible turnarounds as well after being higher during the day. The XAU lost 1 7/8 and GDX shed 3/8. Volume was very heavy on the sell off. The short term indicators are now moving down for GDX and the daily candlestick chart looks bearish. Mentally I'm feeling tired as the short term trading is a drain on the brain. The VIX was up today which fits a volatile session. The short term indicators are moving higher but not at a steep rate. I'm still not sure what the VIX has in store for us next. I'm in the next trade with two days to go so I'll have my work cut out for me to try and have a profitable outcome. We were overdue for some selling but there's always the chance that today was it and we move higher from here. I'll have to keep an extra eye on the S&P futures overnight. Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
A gap higher to start the day but then sellers took over and the Dow fell 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Waiting on the Fed at this point in time. I did place an overnight order for the SPY September puts but it was not filled. Now it gets even trickier as time is running out and we have to gauge the market reaction to the Fed announcement. We'll stick with the technicals as usual and the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Both it and the NASDAQ posted small gains today. I may try another overnight order for the SPY puts but the time premium in them is getting sucked out at a rapid rate. That's why the timing will be crucial to getting the trade right. There's also a chance that I will simply pass on this idea as I am usually not that successful with the very short term trades. Gold was off $13 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was light. Still short term overbought for the gold shares but they can remain that way during up trends. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit again today and closed at the 50 day moving average. I'm not sure what the VIX will do next. Three days left in the September option cycle. I'll take another look at things tonight and go from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.
Monday, September 16, 2024
A mixed picture while waiting on the Fed as the Dow gained 228 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ posted a small loss while most of the other major averages were higher. The S&P 500 had a slight gain and remains short term overbought. I am still considering the SPY September puts for this week. I will buy them perhaps tomorrow if we see more upside. A risky trade to be sure as the timing has to be right. The S&P is stalling at the overhead resistance at around 5650. However if we break through there on good volume, new highs will be the story. I would like to try the puts at some point this week though. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on pretty light volume. Today looked like a pause before we go higher for the gold shares but time will tell on that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit which doesn't fit with the positive tone of the overall market today. Not sure where it is headed next. Not yet completely short term oversold there. Retail sales out tomorrow and that might provide a reason for market movement. Europe was mostly lower and what was open in Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on any overnight developments.
Friday, September 13, 2024
Still drifting higher as the Dow climbed 297 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. This will have the summation index moving back up. The Dow and the S&P 500 are on the cusp of new all time highs. We are getting a short term sell signal from one of our indicators but this hasn't been that reliable lately. It says any strength on Monday can be shorted. Perhaps I'll try the SPY September puts there but the breadth was very good today and the short etrm trend is obviously up. The short term indicators for the S&P are not yet overbought either. However I do not trust light volume rallies. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. Gold added another $30 on the futures as there is no overhead resistance. The US dollar was a little lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good as GDX hit a new recent high just above the 40 level. The short term indicators here are not yet overbought. I'm still thinking that the gold shares will run up into next weeks option expiration before taking a break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up day for stocks. Still not short term oversold yet on the VIX. Plus it still implies higher prices for the market in the near term. Which makes trying the SPY September puts difficult. Not to mention with only a week to go in the September option cycle the timing of any trade next week has to be spot on. The Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are all right up against their near term overhead resistance. If it holds, the puts will be worth the effort. If it doesn't, new all time highs will be coming and who knows how much higher the market will go? So that is where we are at in a nutshell. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and determine what to do. But I can tell you right now that you can make the case either way. Hopefully things will become clearer over the next couple of days of research. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Inflation data came in where expected and the markets continued higher as the Dow gained 235 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ continues to lead that way higher and that's a positive. The S&P 500 continues to climb. Its short term indicators are moving up with room to go before hitting overbought. It really looks like new all time highs are coming up in the next few days. I might have to forget about trying the SPY September puts for that idea is at least on hold until next week. Yesterdays upside reversal looks like it was for real. Gold climbed $44 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares rallied with the XAU up 8 points and GDX gaining 1 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher with plenty of room to go. Another missed trade here as the option premiums never got down to what I was willing to pay for this opportunity. It's possible that GDX will run up into next weeks option expiration. They say that missed money is better than lost money but it never feels that way when you miss it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are moving down with room to go before hitting oversold. The VIX still implies higher prices in the near term. Six days to go in the September option cycle. Still time for a potential trade but the ideal time has passed on the GDX calls and the SPY put idea may have to fade away. If we continue higher into early next week the put trade might be possible on a sell the news event with the Fed on Wednesday. But that is a long way from here. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
We saw an incredible one day upside reversal today as the market opened and dropped lower only to turn around and finish decidedly higher on the session. The Dow, which was off over 700 points early, made it all the way back and finished with a gain of 124 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to trend sideways. The inflation data came in where expected but stocks sold off hard early on. The comeback was led by the NASDAQ which added over 2% for the day. The S&P 500 finished up almost sixty points after being down around ninety. The short term indicators there are now at mid-range or above. My SPY September put idea will have to be put on hold for now. We now have to ask if new all time highs are back in the picture. One day does not make a trend but it was pretty impressive. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX rose a bit over 1/8. Volume was light as the gold shares did not follow the overall markets good gains. The short term indicators here have turned up. I'll try the calls here if they roll back over and the premium is what I'm willing to pay. Running out of time now in the September option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower but remains above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now below mid-range and pointing lower. This implies more near term gains for stocks. Perhaps the inflation data tomorrow will be benign as well. Asia and Europe were generally lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
The overall market was higher but the Dow posted a loss of 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ outperformed today and that is a plus. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators are moving up from oversold levels. As long as we continue higher on light volume, I'm still looking at the SPY September puts. Perhaps later this week if the market cooperates. It is entirely possible that we just move higher from here as well but I'm not as sure on that scenario. We'll see what the reaction is to the inflation data and go from there. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU was up a couple points and GDX added almsot 1/2. Volume was light. I did not get any GDX calls today as the premium on the option that I was considering did not drop to the price that I wanted. GDX remains short term oversold on some of the indicators and is right at its 50 day moving average. It may have been a mistake on my part in not getting the calls today but we'll see how it plays out going forward. I think that I'm more sold on the SPY put idea for this option cycle but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the overall market rise. The short term indicators are now mid-range and give the appearance that they could go either way. I'm pretty sure we will see some kind of movement tomorrow morning after the inflation report. Which way is always the question. The data is forecast to be mild. There is also a presidential debate tonight but I don't know how much that will affect the markets. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
Monday, September 09, 2024
Trying to bounce as the week begins and the Dow gained 484 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending down. The Dow barely led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but the indicators have turned up for now. I'm still considering the SPY September puts but want to see a move higher before purchase. Ideally a light volume move towards 555 on the SPY would build that case for those puts. Inflation data this Wednesday and Thursday should be mild. I will watch and wait for now. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up over 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold. I am thinking about perhaps getting the GDX September calls tomorrow ahead of the inflation data. The premiums are still pricey in my opinion. I'll consider things overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down with plenty of room to go lower. The VIX is back below 20. Not sure what to expect next here but a lower VIX and higher stock prices are not out of the question. That could fit with a move towards 555 on the SPY and set us up for the SPY puts for option expiration week. But we'll have to see what actually the market has in store for us. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Friday, September 06, 2024
More selling to end the short trading week as the Dow fell 410 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. Once again the NASDAQ has led the way down, off 2 1/2% today. That is not a plus. The jobs report came in about where expected as there were no surprises. But traders used it as an excuse to sell. The S&P 500 dropped below its 50 day moving average as it was down 95 points. The short term indicators here are oversold for the most part. I would expect some kind of bounce next week but it will probably be not more than that. That may give us a chance for the SPY September puts. Premiums for the puts are much higher now but I do not see a test of the recent all time highs anytime soon. I could be wrong. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar finished barely higher and interest rates were down slightly. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. The XAU dropped 4 points, while GDX lost a point. Volume was average. GDX is now short term oversold and I'm willing to give the September calls there a chance next week. I will probably put an order in on Sunday night but we'll see how things look after the weekend. This would have to be a short term trade because I think the overall market still has more room to go on the downside before option expiration. The gold shares have followed the overall market recently and that will probably remain the same. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with lower prices. Not yet completely overbought here but getting there. Still above the 20 level which implies more volatility to come. September is generally a negative month for stocks and so far it has lived up to that. There's still a couple of weeks to go in the September option cycle with inflation data and a Fed meeting yet to come. Hopefully I'll be up to the challenge. We'll check the charts over the weekend and be ready to go on Monday. Asia and Europe were lower overnight as players are heading for the exits. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, September 05, 2024
Generally lower today although the NASDAQ managed to post a small gain. The Dow fell 219 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The S&P 500 was down and closed on its 50 day moving average. Getting to short term oversold here but not all the way there yet. Just waiting on the reaction to tomorrows jobs report at this point. Not sure what to expect there. Still waiting on some kind of signal or set up for the next SPY option trade. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is short term oversold on some of the indicators. I'll be looking to maybe attempt the September calls there if we continue lower into next week. There hasn't been much interest in the gold shares lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Some of the short term indicators here are rolling over. Barely below the 20 level after today. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Still two weeks left in the September option cycle and I hope to put on some type of trade in that time span. Can't force things though as markets go where they want. We'll see what transpires tomorrow and go from there. Asia and Europe were lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week on employment report Friday.
Wednesday, September 04, 2024
It was a day of stabilization as the Dow rose 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending sideways. A back and forth seesion for the most part as volatility cooled off for a day. The overall market was slightly weaker. The S&P 500 was a bit lower but remains above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are still pointing down. Not sure what to expect tomorrow ahead of the jobs report on Friday but I would not expect a lot of buying unless a short squeeze takes place. The daily candlestick chart here looks bearish. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are not yet at oversold levels. Staying patient for now when it comes to the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and remains above the 20 level. The picture of the daily candlestick chart here implies that the VIX will move lower from here. We'll see if that happens. Europe and Asia were lower with Japan leading the way. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, September 03, 2024
Stocks got clobbered to begin the month of September as the Dow fell 626 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way lower, off 3 1/4%. I was looking for the S&P 500 to set new all time highs this week but that appears to be the wrong prognosis. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over with plenty of room to move lower. Might be too late for the SPY September puts but we'll see. The bigger picture could be a double top on the S&P which would measure much much lower from todays levels. But we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Perhaps the bearish seasonality factor is kicking in. Looks like everybody returned to their desks ready to sell. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The gold shares followed the overall market down. The XAU lost 6 3/9 and GDX fell 1 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving down but not yet completely oversold. GDX did manage to finish above its 50 day moving average. I'm still considering the September calls here if and when GDX gets short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today which fits the downside price action in stocks. It is now slightly above the important 20 level. The short term indicators are pointing up and most are not close to being overbought. We'll see if today was a one day wonder or the beginning of something sustainable to the downside as we move forward. I'm not sure exactly what to think here so caution on my part is advised. There's still plenty of time to trade in the September option cycle. The jobs report on Friday will be the highlight of the data out this week. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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