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Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Sellers had the upper hand today as the Dow fell 570 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is still in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. The resistance of the 50 day moving average combined with the short term down trend line was too much to overcome this time around for the S&P 500. The short term indicators here are rolling over. Perhaps the Fed can save things tomorrow with some dovish comments but that remains to be seen. More likely is a retest of the recent lows, at least that's my best guess right now. Probably too late for the SPY May puts as the move lower has already began. Gold got clobbered today as the futures were off over fifty bucks. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 6 1/3, while GDX lost 1 2/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned down and still have room to go. Do I still want to try the GDX May calls here? Yes but I'm not as sure about this idea as I was before. I'll look things over again tonight and decide whether to place an overnight order in or not. GOLD reports earnings before the bell tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today which fits a down market. Back above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages again. Still short term oversold on the VIX so perhaps this decline has legs. The Fed isn't expected to make any change in interest rates tomorrow. What is said in the speech afterwards will determine the near term market direction. I certainly don't know what to expect. We still have Fridays jobs report to go through as well. Beginning of a new month tomorrow so we might have some capital inflows. Eranings reports will be ongoing as well. The only thing we can say with any confidence is that it probably won't be boring. Perhaps we'll be able to find a trading opportunity. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

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