Thursday, November 30, 2023
A mixed market to be sure to finish the month. The Dow roared ahead by 520 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to climb. The S&P 500 posted a modest gain while the NASDAQ had a small loss. The Dow leading the way is not the most bullish scenario. Inflation data came in where expected. We'll get some talking heads tomorrow courtesy of the Fed. Plus the beginning of a new month. The markets techncial conditon remains the same. Short term overbought for an extended length of time and remaining that way. Overextended from the 50 day moving averages as well. We've gone sideways for over a week and that will have to resolve itself at some point. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. The fact that they didn't drop with the loss in gold itself is a plus. But GDX remains short term overbougt as well. My GDX December calls are still solidly in the black. How to manage this trade from here will be my main concern for now. However I think that perhaps the SPY December calls may be an idea at some point before option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished practically unchanged today and remains short term oversold. It has been short term oversold for practically the whole month of November. This coincides with the rally that we've seen. Once again these conditons do not last forever. We'd like to see a rise in the VIX and a decline in the S&P in order to try the December SPY calls. Markets rarely cooperate though. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll begin a new month but close out another trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 29, 2023
We had a one day reversal to the downside for most of the major averages today but the Dow managed a gain of 13 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have a bearish candlestick after todays price action. The short term indicators are beginning to possibly roll over and we are still short term overbought. End of the month tomorrow and I don't know how that will affect things. We are still way overdue for some type of decline for the S&P but we'd only be guessing if we said it would be now. Again, we'll let the market decide what to do next. Still looking at the SPY December calls if we see some pullback. Gold was up $5 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU was off 1/3, while GDX finished flat. Volume was average. The gold shares took a breather after yesterdays stellar gains. Still short term overbought for GDX but in rallies it can stay that way. We'll continue to hold on to the GDX December calls for now. Plenty of time left in the December option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and the short term indicators have turned up. Still short term oversold here but not at extremes. The VIX implies that we could see some near term selling but it has been hard for me to figure out lately. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
More of the same today as the Dow rose 83 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. Most of the major averages had slight gains today but we did see some volatility during the session. The extended short term overbought condtion for the S&P 500 remains in place. We've been sideways here for a week. I would guess that we'd break higher from here and remain overbought but who knows? Overdue for some type of pullback but we'll let the market tell us what it's going to do. Gold was up over $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained over 4 3/4, while GDX climbed 1 3/8. Volume was heavy to the upside while breaking through the level of 30 which was the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern validating that. The target for the pattern lies at 34 but there is a longer term down trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 33.25. If GDX could somehow break through that level on good volume it would imply that we've got much higher to go. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. My GDX December calls are now solidly in the black. I canceled the open order for the GDX January calls as the prices have moved past where I was willing to buy but I still like that idea going forward. We'll manage the December trade as best we can and then try and move to the January option cycle. Ideally we'll make a run to 33 in GDX and exit the December trade. Then hopefully see some kind of pullback towards the neckline and then purchase the January calls. But markets rarely cooperate with the best laid plans. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the session and well off of its highs for the day. Volatility did return but failed to manifest itself in price. Not sure what that implies. Still short term oversold to the extreme on the VIX. Only a couple of days left in this months trading. Asia and Europe finished mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Monday, November 27, 2023
Sideways price action to start the week as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues higher. Most indices posted losses on the day led by the TRAN. The technical conditions for the S&P 500 remain the same. Extremely short term overbought and staying that way. Still heading up in a straight line that is not sustainable forever. Would like to see a snap back to the down trend line that was broken on the daily chart but the market goes where it wants. Remaining patient with regards to the SPY as there is plenty of time left in the December option cycle. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 1 7/8, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was below average. GDX is knocking on the door of the 30 level, which is the neckline of the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break above there on good volume would validate the pattern. However GDX is short term overbought so some kind of stall here is possible as well. The 200 day moving average comes in just above the 30 level too. So we should know soon whether or not the original idea of the GDX calls is going to work. My GDX December calls are at a small profit once again. The open order for the GDX January calls remains out there but it doesn't look like it will get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly up today but remains short term oversold. It remains at a low level as the fear factor has gone away for now. Not sure what comes next here but the VIX is pretty far below its 50 day moving average. That conditon will not last indefinitely. Europe and Asia were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Friday, November 24, 2023
A mixed bag for a half day holiday session as the Dow gained 117 points on extremely light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ posted a small loss. All techncial conditons remain the same. Gold rose $10 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU added 1/2, while GDX was flat. Very light volume here as well. The gold shares didn't follow the price of gold today and that is a concern. But it's hard to put much stock in todays proceedings. Most of the major players are gone. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and I can't see it getting much lower from here. It closed at the lowest level in the past 4 years. Europe was up and Asia down with the exception of Japan to finish the week. Let's get back to the long holiday break and see how things go when everybody is back on Monday.
Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Drifting higher before a long holiday weekend as the Dow gained 184 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The song here remains the same and it is one of buying. The Dow led the way today. All of the major stock averages are short term overbought, some more than others. We'll have a half day session on Friday but most of the palyers will be gone until Monday. Still moving up in a straight line and the next resistance for the S&P is 4600. At the rate we're going we'll get there next week. Gold lost $9 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates are still trending sideways. The XAU rose 1/2, while GDX finished flat. Volume was pretty light. It is a plus that the gold shares held up despite the drop in gold itself. However it is a light volume holiday mode market. We are still waiting for the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern on GDX to manifest itself. My GDX December calls are still showing a slight profit. We continue to have the open order out for the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again and is in the area where is has risen from over the past six months. Given that it is also extremely oversold we should see some type of rise from here for the VIX. Whether or not that translates into a pause for the rally remains to be seen. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. Happy Thankgiving everyone.
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
A pause in the rally today as the Dow dropped 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't any kind of huge decline. Nor do I think that it is the start of something sustained to the downside. We are in a very positive seasonal period for stocks despite the straight line run up. I expect more gains into the December option expiration. But we do need a rest and perhaps today is the beginning of a sideways consolidation. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates remained flat. The XAU gained 2 3/8, while GDX added over 2/3. Volume was good to the upside but the gold shares did fall off from the best levels on the session. This is an issue holding the gold shares back as there always seems to be sellers showing up on the positive days. Not yet short term overbought on GDX but todays price action was not as positive as it should have been. The complex inverse head and shoulders pattern is still intact for GDX but we need to see a big volume breakout through the 30 level to know this pattern will work. Hasn't happened yet. My GDX December calls have moved back to a slight gains as it bounce back between gains and losses. It appears to be too late for the GDX January calls at the best entry price. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today and came off of the highs for the session. Still extremely short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it is overdue for some kind of rise. Tomorrow is a getaway day before a long holiday weekend so I would expect the volume to be light along with the volatility. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Monday, November 20, 2023
Still moving up as the Dow climbed 203 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that's a plus. Technical conditions remain the same, short term overbought and staying that way. It has been a straight line up and this cannot go on forever. These kind of moves usually don't end well but we'll have to wait and see what happens this time around. Sellers have disappeared. It is a holiday week so some of the players won't be at their desks. We just moved into the December option cycle so there is plenty of time for a trade. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume. The short term indicators here remain at mid-range. My GDX December calls are still losers although the gold shares held up well despite the small drop in gold itself. The gold shares were probably just following the overall market today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today and is extremely short term oversold. I'm not saying that the VIX is implying some kind of decline coming up but this conditon needs to resolve itself because it too cannot go on indefinitely. Europe and Asia began the week mixed. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Friday, November 17, 2023
Expiration Friday was fairly quiet as the Dow rose a point and change on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Not much to write about today price action or lack thereof. The short term technical conditions remain the same. Overbought and staying that way. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted slight gains again. It feels like a sideways consolidation in the very short term before we move higher again but we'll have to wait and see. A holiday week ahead and the volume should taper off. We'll be on the sidelines still with regards to the SPY until after next week. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range and could go either way. My GDX December calls are now at a small loss as they waiver back and forth between slight gains and losses. I still have the open order out for the GDX January calls. Not sure what to expect next as we wait for the complex inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX to make up its mind. It looked like a failure but it still has a chance so we'll continue to hold onto the calls for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold as it has been for a couple of weeks. This condition will end eventually but we can't be certain of the timing. It is supportive of higher stock prices and that has come to pass. The weekend is upon us and we'll be going over all the charts as usual. Sitting on our hands next week is the game plan and I don't think that will change. Sometimes you've got to be patient. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, November 16, 2023
A mixed bag for Thursday as the Dow fell 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving higher. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains. They both remain short term overbought on the technical indicators. Option expiration tomorrow and anything goes there. We've had a straight line up for stocks and some kind of consolidation is overdue. Perhaps next week with a holiday trading affair. But who knows? We still are of the belief that declines can be purchased. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 3/8. Both finished off of the highs for the session. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators for GDX are turning back up. My GDX December calls are back to showing a small profit. Still looking to buy some GDX January calls as my open order remains out there. If we can get to 29 on GDX tomorrow the weekly candlestick chart will be looking bullish. If not we may have to rethink what we're doing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today. The daily chart looks like it may want to go up a bit here. So maybe we'll see some selling tomorrow. The VIX remains short term oversold for an extended period. We'll get through expiration Friday and take it from there. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Europe and Asia were generally lower. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 15, 2023
Hanging around in the middle of option expiration week as the Dow gained 163 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. Inflation data came in light. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and is due for a rest. Declines can be bought in my humble opinion. Most of the important economic data is already out for the week so it's anybodies guess where we go from here. We'll remain patient for now with regards to the SPY trading. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. My GDX December calls are now posting a small loss. GDX is stalling at its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are starting to move sideways. I still have the open order out for the GDX January calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the session and remains short term oversold. Only a couple of days left in the November option cycle and we're approaching a short holiday week as well. My guess is that things will wind down here for the next week and half but we'll see. Ideas include getting the January GDX calls at some point and some SPY calls when we see some pullback in the overall market. Europe and Asia finished higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Tuesday, November 14, 2023
Inflation data came in lighter than expected and the market took off to the upside. The Dow gained 489 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up and just crossed the zero line back into positive territory. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way. The S&P had a gap at the open and never looked back. Still short term overbought and staying that way. We never saw a decent pullback on the way up over the past two weeks to attempt the SPY November calls. In retrospect we should have just bought anything to go along for the ride. But if you would have told me at the end of October that we would be knocking on the door of 4500 in 2 1/2 weeks, I wouldn't have believed you. Markets go where they want. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar got creamed and interest rates sank. The XAU gained 5 3/8 and GDX climbed about 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart might still be valid after todays price action. It has gotten more complex. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up. If GDX continues higher and breaks the 30 level, the mearsuring objective is still the 34 level. My December GDX calls have made it back to break even. The order for the GDX January calls hasn't been filled and it looks like it won't. I will either have to adjust it or move to a higher strike price. One day doesn't make a trend though so we'll have to see where the gold shares go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. Nothing new here as the VIX looked like that it projected higher stock prices and that is what has come to pass. Three days remain in the November option cycle and we're most likely not going to make any SPY trades until after the holiday week goes by. The long side is the only way to go for now. A repeat of yesterday overseas as Europe was higher and Asia mixed again. We'll see how tomorrows inflation data is received.
Monday, November 13, 2023
Waiting on inflation data as the Dow rose 54 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues higher. A mixed bag though as both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We're inclined to try the SPY November calls if we see some selling this week. The market rarely cooperates. Otherwise we'll most likely remain on the sidelines regarding the S&P until after the holiday next week. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost almost 1/4. Volume was very light. Gold up and the gold shares down is a negative. GDX remains short term oversold. My GDX December calls are solid losers. I did place an open order for the GDX January calls but it will take some selling to get filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is still short term oversold. Still way below the 20 level and the VIX implies higher stock prices going forward. That doesn't mean we won't see any declines but they should be short lived. If we see some selling tomorrow and into Wednesday we'll probably try the SPY calls with just a couple of days left in the option cycle. If we go higher tomorrow we'll stay out most likely for the rest of the week. We won't try and press things either way. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation data tomorrow.
Friday, November 10, 2023
Powering higher as the Dow gained 391 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way up. Overbought, staying that way and the S&P 500 closed above the 4400 level. It wasn't a high volume break through but you cannot argue with price. Perhaps we'll stall in this area but the implications are clear. The market is going higher. We did not get the chance to purchase the SPY November calls that were on our radar. While we were wasting our time and effort on the gold shares the overall market powered higher. Missed opportunity. Gold fell thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were flat. The XAU lost a point, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was light. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart failed to materialize. That cost us. I sold the GDX November calls today for a 95% loss. We're still holding the GDX December calls but they are in the cut the loss mode at this point. GDX is short term oversold so we'll expect a bounce soon. That should give us a chance to dump the December calls, hopefully next week. We'll have a short holiday week after that and we pobably don't want to do any option buying before then. We are looking at the GDX January calls but the medium term indicators have rolled over and the prognosis is for lower prices. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated. We saw that the overall market had turned yet we did not purchase the SPY calls. Instead I'm stuck with counting my GDX losses. Sometimes it is a humbling game. The VIX was lower today and is staying short term oversold. Perhaps it will simply stay that way in options expiration week as the market moves higher. We'll see. I'll be going over the charts this weekend to maybe find an idea for expiration week. Europe and Asia were down with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, November 09, 2023
We finally saw some selling today as the Dow fell 220 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't any sort of rout by any means. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to roll over. Gold was up $9 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares fell back from their best levels on the session. My GDX call postions remain in the red. Mentally I'm feeling tired and that is why the blog is a bit shorter than usual today. The VIX was up today which fits the downside day. The short term indicators here are still oversold. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 08, 2023
Whatever selling that occurs continues to be met by buying but the Dow did lose 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. We had selling in the morning which met with buying in the afternoon. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 managed to eek out small gains. Both remain short term overbought. It looks like we won't get a chance at the SPY November calls. It seems like the market just wants to keep going up from here but we do have the 4400 level of resistance to contend with on the S&P. Almost there and what happens at that point will tell us a lot. My guess is that we'll get through there and keep on going. Gold lost $18 on the futures. The US dollar finished basically unchanged and interest rates had a slight drop. The gold shares got creamed with the XAU losing 3 1/8 and GDX down by 7/8. Volume was good moving lower again. My GDX November calls are dead. I did get filled on the open order for the GDX December calls and they are losing already. Unless the gold shares turn around tomorrow, the inverse head and shoulders pattern that I have talked about on the daily chart will be negated. It looks like that will be the case. Not sure what happened here with gold but we'll listen to what the price is telling us. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX it still heading lower and still short term oversold. This seems like a broken record. However it can last longer than you think and as long as it does we'll continue to look for higher stock prices. Asia was mostly lower and Europe generally higher. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, November 07, 2023
Still waiting for the chance to try the SPY November calls but there is no pullback yet as the Dow gained 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The sumation index is moving up. The NASDAQ was by far the best performer on the day and that's a plus. The S&P 500 opened lower and closed higher for a one day upside reversal. But it's now seven days in a row of gains there and some type of pause is due. Not to mention the down trend line at 4400 that has to be negotiated. Plus the continued short term overbought technical condition. So we will be patient and wait for some selling before we try and get the SPY calls ahead of option expiration week. Gold dropped $13 again on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside but the gold shares did come up from the worst levels on the day. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX is still intact for now. It is turning into a more complex pattern which would take longer to resolve. My GDX November calls are solid losers after todays price action. I did place an open order for some GDX December calls today. My thinking is that if that pattern on the GDX daily chart takes longer to resolve itself, I would like to go along for the eventual rise. However a continued drop in the gold shares would change things. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains short term oversold. During rallies the VIX simply remains oversold. It seems to be pointing to higher stock prices going forward and I agree with that. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of Germany. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Monday, November 06, 2023
Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 34 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving higher. Slight gains for most of the major averages today as the market has to digest last weeks run up. We would not be surprised to see some selling this week and that could set us up for the SPY November calls for option expiration week. Friday is a partial holiday for Veterans day. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are overbought. I do think that some kind of rolling over will take place. The next down trend line of resistance comes in around 4400 but I think that we'll head lower before attempting to cross that line. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY November 430 calls but we'll see. Gold fell $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over. My GDX November calls are now showing a small loss. Not sure what's next here but on the daily chart GDX is potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Volume has picked up in the gold shares but I'm not sure what that means. If the inverse pattern is for real, the measuring objective for GDX would be 34. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged on the day. The short term indicators remain oversold. Not sure what to expect next here. A lot of Fed speak this week but it's light on economic data. Asia up and Europe down to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Friday, November 03, 2023
Quite a week on Wall street as the Dow capped things off with a gain of 222 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We did see a little selling near the close but that was most likely just the short term traders taking their weekly profit. The employment report was viewed as market friendly. The NASDAQ led the way again. The S&P 500 has made it through the first down trend line of resistance. The next line that began the decline back in August comes in at 4400. My guess is that will be taken out by option expiration but we'll see. Waiting on some pullback to get the SPY November calls but we've already missed the lions share of this move. Not yet short term overbought on the indicators for the S&P. Things have changed in a hurry. Gold was up five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The gold shares came to life. The XAU gained 4 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/4. Volume was very heavy. The gold shares followed the overall market lower in the final hour. My GDX November calls are now showing a small profit. What a difference a day makes. The gold shares outperformed gold itself by a wide margin. That's usually a sign of more gains to come but we'll see what happens this time. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with room to run. Resistance for GDX comes in at the 30 level. If we can make it through there on good volume our GDX trade will work. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is still heading lower and is still short term oversold. It can stay that way during rallies which is what we're in at the moment. We've seen a dramatic turnaround for stocks in just one week and that can't be ignored. Expect the gains to continue but not at the rapid pace that we saw this week. All signs point to higher prices going forward barring a negative external event. We'll be going over all the charts this weekend as usual to try and find an entry point for the November SPY call idea. Asia was higher and Europe mixed to finish out the week. It's Friday afternonn and time for a break.
Thursday, November 02, 2023
The rally exploded to the upside today as the Dow roared ahead by 564 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The S&P 500 led the way today but all the major stock averages had stellar gains. The S&P has moved up in a straight line this week and the volume has been decent. We are now up against the first short term down trend line on the daily chart here, so some stalling may take place. However the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving up with room to go, so this line will eventually get broken to the upside. Perhaps even tomorrow. We've missed the ideal time to enter a trade with the SPY November calls but we might still get a chance if we see some kind of pullback before option expiration. Well we can hope at least. Stating the obvious, the trend is now up. Gold rose $4 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. Money is finding other places to go instead of gold now. That could change with the next problem in the Middle East but we don't know if or when that would happen. My GDX November call trade is a solid loser with a little over two weeks to go. We'll hold on for now but it could already be in the cut the loss mode for this one. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are oversold so perhaps there's still a chance this will work. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower. It is now below both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term oversold on the VIX but it stays that way during rallies. It has been quite a positive week for stocks and we'll see how the market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow. Make no mistake that the bottom is in. Europe and Asia were higher as money is moving into stocks around the globe. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 01, 2023
The Fed spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow gained 221 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. Rates were left unchanged as expected. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving higher with plenty of room to go. The S&P closed just below its 200 day moving average. We are hoping for some kind of near term pullback for the opportunity to purchase the SPY November calls but it may already be too late. The bottom is in as far as we're concerned. Declines can be purchased in my view. Still plenty of time left in the November option cycle. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX finished mixed with fractional moves one way or the other on heavy volume. The volume for the gold shares has picked up but is still deciding exactly which way it wants to go. My GDX November call position remains solidly in the red for now. Getting to short term oversold on the indicators for GDX but not completely there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is approaching short term oversold. Comfortably below the 20 level on this technical indicator now. All in all the evidence suggests that higher stock prices are in our future from here. We'll hope for some kind of pullback near term but that just may not happen. Next up is the employment report on Friday. We'll see how the markets react to that. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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