Feeling ill today will hopefully get to the blog over the weekend.

The beat goes on as the Dow rose 141 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ continues to outperform. We're going higher and now declines can be used to get long. The S&P 500 is short term overbought but that shouldn't stop things from going higher. Inflation data out tomorrow and it should be a market mover. Also the end of the month and quarter so there might be some gyrations during the session. We are still looking at the S&P to get up to 4200 during this run. Gold was up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were little changed again. The XAU was up 2 points while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. Remaining short term overbought for the gold shares as well. Waiting for a pullback here to perhaps get my open order for the GDX April calls filled. Volume is getting lighter now for the gold shares so perhaps this move higher is about to stall. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. Pretty oversold on the short term indicators. The daily candlestick chart here appears to want to go lower. Below the 20 level on the VIX and that's a plus for the bulls. We'll get the inflation data in the morning and go from there. Not sure what to expect. But the tone of the market has changed from panic to buying and the summation index is moving up. We won't try and fight that. Europe and Asia were up with the exception of Japan. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving on up as the Dow gained 323 points on light volume. We had a gap at the open and continued higher from there. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving up. It got down to the zero line and has turned around. Expect higher stock prices until further notice. The NASDAQ remains the outperformer and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought but in rallies it will stay that way. I think we're on our way back up to 4200 but we'll see. We will look to find some SPY April calls to purchase if we get some weakness. Waiting on Fridays inflation data. Gold dropped almost ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were little changed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains short term overbought. My open order for the April calls is still out there. A rally in stocks could dampen the demand for haven assets. We'll keep an eye on things as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped again today and is now solidly below the 20 level. This should also provide more evidence for a rally in equities. The VIX is now short term oversold but can stay that way during upswings. Unless we get some kind of negative headline out of the blue, we'll be looking for the rally to continue. The technical evidence leads us this way. Now it could all change with a negative surprise from the inflation numbers on Friday but I don't think so. Europe and Asia were higher last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Hanging around is how I'd describe things as the Dow lost 37 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up again. Whether or not it's successful will determine the markets direction. I'm still a believer that we are going to head higher. The NASDAQ led the way down today but the losses were small. Volatility is muted at the moment. Not sure if the market is on spring break or if traders are just waiting for March to end. The technical picture for the S&P is more short term overbought but not excessively so. We're just waiting for a catalyst one way or the other. Perhaps Fridays inflation report will do the trick. Gold bounced back twenty bucks today on the futures. The US dollar continues lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 3 points, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. Seems like that there is no stopping the gold shares. I do have another open order out there for the April GDX calls but it will take some decline in GDX to get filled. Still short term overbought on GDX and staying that way. Perhaps we'll get a move back towards the break out from the down trend line at 31. Or not. Money continues to flow into gold and the gold shares and I don't see any reason to think that it will stop anytime soon. But it will eventually. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and it remains short term oversold. It did close below 20. It looks like it wants to go lower which would support higher stock prices. However right now we will have to remain patient and wait for some kind of trading set-up one way or the other. Option premiums remain elevated with plenty of time left for the April option cycle. Asia and Europe were positive last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Continuing to move higher as the Dow gained 194 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is again trying to turn around. The Dow was the leader today as the NASDAQ posted a loss. Not the most bullish scenario but we'll take it. Some economic data out this week but the market will be waiting for the inflation numbers due out on Friday. To me it's a market that is waiting to break out one way or the other and still can't make up it's mind. If the summation index can get going to the upside, we'll see higher prices. Hasn't happened yet. Not SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was off $25 on the futures as the negative RSI divergence there was valid. Not sure how long it will last. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX finished little changed after being lower to start the day. Volume was pretty light from what we've seen lately. The gold shares did not follow gold lower and that is a plus for the bulls. We still like the GDX April calls if we can find a spot to purchase them. GDX does remain short term overbought though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. the short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely there yet. The daily candlestick chart sure looks like it wants to go lower but the VIX remains above the 20 level. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to start the week. We'll watch the overnight developments and take it from there.

A one day reversal to the upside to close out the week as the Dow gained 132 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues down. It has now passed through the zero line but we aren't seeing a market collapse. That is telling me that things should turn around here and head higher. When the technical conditions are present for something to happen and it doesn't, that tells you something too. The fact that we are just hanging around here and not dropping says higher prices are in the future. Markets that drop simply go down, they don't meander around as we have despite the volatility. Most of the short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain stuck at mid-range. Still waiting for them to turn one way or the other. The NASDAQ did lag today. We'll think about the SPY April calls over the weekend. Gold dropped $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains good here. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is a positive sign. The gold shares remain short term overbought. I'm still considering the GDX April calls if we get some type of pullback. However if the overall market does start to rally, the flight to safety trade will wane. GDX did close above the down trend line that had been in place for the past year. There is a potential negative RSI divergence on the daily gold chart which we will keep an eye on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it implies a lower VIX which would in turn lead to higher stock prices. But I'm not going to say that is going to happen next here. I haven't been able to figure out the VIX for quite a while. So I'll keep an eye on it but look for clues elsewhere as to where we are going. As I've already said, I think stock prices are moving higher from here. We'll go over all the charts this weekend as usual. Europe and Asia were both lower on Friday to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was one of those crazy sessions today as the Dow was up almost 500 points early only to give it all back and go negative with about an hour to go. Buyers then stepped in as it gained 75 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index has made it down through the zero line but we really haven't fallen apart yet. I'm still guessing that things will hold up here. The NASDAQ is still outperforming the major averages and that's a plus. If it happens to roll over here, then we'll see some carnage. Again, I don't think that will be the case. There is just too much bearish sentiment at the moment. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are stuck at mid-range. Whichever way they go will determine the markets near term direction. One thing that's obvious is the pick up in volatility which is generally a negative sign for the market. I don't have any SPY trades that I'm considering right now. Gold rallied again as the futures were up almost fifty bucks. The US dollar was up a bit and interest rates continued to drop. The XAU gained 2 1/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good. GDX has just broken through the short term down trend line at 31. It now appears that the drop earlier this week in gold was a snapback to the breakout from the long term resistance because it has taken off ever since. The bearish candlestick pattern on the daily charts of both gold and the gold shares did not pan out. We will be buyers of the GDX April calls if we get some weakness in the coming days. Money is flocking to gold and you cannot ignore that. It appears new all time highs for the precious metal will be happening soon. I do not like to chase moves but will make an exception this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit higher today after bouncing all around. I can't seem to figure this indicator out lately. Still above the 20 level here. It has been a pretty volatile week for the stock indices so far but the S&P 500 is just about where it started. We'll have to see where we finish tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what Friday has in store for us.

We've got the Fed decision out of the way but after briefly rising on the news of a 1/4 point hike the market sank. The Dow fell 530 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower after trying to turn itself around at the zero line. Will things now just fall apart as usual at the zero line? We'll know by the close on Friday but I'm wondering if today was just a one day wonder. There sure is plenty of bearishness around. But the market will let us know in the coming days. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are back to mid-range and rolling over. So you certainly could make a bearish case going forward. The Russell 2000 has been oversold for weeks and just printed a long dark candle on its daily chart. I suppose if the tech sector starts to sell off we could see another leg down for the S&P. Hasn't happened yet. Gold rallied $30 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped for the bond market. Looks like the flight to safety trade is still alive with the action in gold and bonds. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. I did place an order overnight for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. GDX is short term overbought on some of its indicators and I don't usually like to trade the calls in that situation. Not to mention the bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. I do think however that we are in a very precarious market environment in which gold and gold shares could remain overbought for an extended period. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today but not as much as a down 500 market would indicate. Not sure what happens next with the VIX although it looks like a hammer on the daily candlestick chart here. That would imply lower prices and more volatility tomorrow. We'll see. So now with the Fed out of the way, what's next? A couple of economic reports left to see this week but nothing major. I guess we'll see if we get any follow through selling tomorrow. Europe and Asia were higher last night. We'll see if they mirror the US market lower overnight.

More upside as we wait for the Fed as the Dow climbed 316 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again, this time at the zero line. We expect the market to hold in here. The S&P 500 got through and closed above the short term down trend line that was in place. It did stop just below the 50 day moving average though. Our posture is that the market got sold out with all the bad news recently. Combine that with the extreme oversold readings that we saw on some indicators and it's a recipe for higher prices. Now that could all change tomorrow on the reaction to whatever the Fed does but we think that higher prices are in the markets future. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing up and have room to move higher. If the summation index turns back up, that is all the evidence that you need. So we'll see where we go from here. Gold got clobbered today as the futures shed $40. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates rose. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX dropped 1 1/8. Volume was good to the downside. Gold and the gold shares now share the same bearish candlestick pattern on their daily charts which implies lower prices to come. Either the recent break out on the long term chart for gold was false or what we are seeing now is the snapback to that breakout. With the daily chart for the gold shares in a bearish configuration, I'm inclined to think we just saw a false breakout despite the good volume. We'll know more by the end of the week but I am still interested in the GDX April calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trending down. This seems to imply higher stock prices going forward. Still above the 20 level here. The market is acting as though all the banking problems are behind us and it's full steam ahead. We'll only know as time goes on. Now it is just a matter of getting through whatever the Fed has in store for us and the market reaction to that. Should be interesting to say the least. Europe and Asia were up with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Trying to stabalize here for Fed week as the Dow gained 382 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down and has reached the zero line. It's the moment of truth for this indicator. Either the market turns around here or it goes into freefall. My guess is that we'll start to head higher but nobody knows for sure. The NASDAQ was the laggard today. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain as mid-range. The major stock indices are very mixed on a technical basis. Some are short term overbought, some oversold and the rest stuck in the middle. We are also in a headline driven environment which is tough to predict. Also just rolled into the April option cycle with an extra week on the options. So we have our work cut out for us. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures as money continues to pour in here. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good. Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares. I am trying to wait for some kind of pullback before attempting the GDX April calls. GDX is right at the short term down trend line at 31. We'll probably wait for golds reaction to the Fed on Wednesday before doing anything but who knows? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as it continues the recent pattern of being up one day and down the next. So the market should be down tomorrow if that holds. Mid-range on the short term technical indicators here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. I suppose it's just a Fed waiting game for now unless another bank fails tomorrow. Asia was lower and Europe higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Sellers returned for option expiration as the Dow fell 384 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. Confidence in the US banking system is wavering despite the manuvers of government officials. In my mind it will all be sorted out but that doesn't mean that we won't see any more panic. I still think that the market is trying to form some kind of bottom here but I've been wrong before. I don't see the NASDAQ falling apart as usual during rough declines so I'm inclined to not think the worst here. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain mid-range. There is a short term down trend line in effect there though. We'll get the Fed announcement next week and that should be quite a volatile session. But that's not until Wednesday which seems pretty far from here. Gold exploded to the upside as the futures climbed sixty bucks today. Fear has taken over as the flight to safety trade is front and center. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU rallied 5 3/4, while GDX was up 1 3/8. Volume was extremely heavy. There is a down trend line for GDX at the 31 level that's a year old. We are almost there but I'd expect things to stall before getting through there. Hopefully that will give us another chance at the GDX calls for April. Gold itself has now closed above a down trend line that had been in effect for over 2 years. Price and volume as always remain the keys and gold has now proven to be the choice of traders at least for now. The gold shares are short term overbought but may just stay that way. GDX may not get back to oversold for a while. We'll consider what plan to take over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back up today as it switches back and forth each session. Still mid-range for the short term indicators here. Not sure where things go next for the VIX here. Oversold now for most of the major indices but not the NASDAQ. Could it be that tech stocks are now considered a flight to safety as well? If they roll over here it will get ugly and the zero line on the summation index will be violated. That's the worst case scenario. Will the Fed do something on Wednesday to abate the fear? Well, stay tuned. Interesting times. We'll have plenty to ponder over this particular weekend. I'll be checking the charts as usual. Asia up and Europe down to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 372 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. Volatility is the rule these days with big moves in both directions. My thinking here is that the market is trying to put in some kind of bottom. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are already back at mid-range. I did not attempt the SPY March calls today and that turned out to be another mistake. There was plenty of time early in the trading day to purchase them but I did not take the risk. After about an hour after the open the market started to rise and did not look back. Missed money is better than lost money so they say. But it sure doesn't feel that way. We'll be looking into the April option cycle going forward. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on good volume. They both came back from the lows on the session. I still like the gold share calls looking out from here but would like to wait for them to get oversold again. We are looking at both the April and May options there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was back down today and once again the daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators are mid-range and have turned down. My guess again would be that the VIX declines and stocks go up but I thought that a couple of days ago too. The VIX remains above the 20 level. We may be waiting for the next bank implosion before heading lower but todays jump in stocks seems to say otherwise. Or maybe today was just some expiration related price action. We will only know for sure as time goes on. I'm thinking that things will turn higher here and that the summation index will not break down through the zero line. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see how option expiration goes tomorrow.

Just another wild day on Wall street as the Dow fell 280 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index continues to move lower and is approaching the zero line. If the summation index goes through there we'll really see things fall apart. Not sure that will happen though. Inflation data was weaker than expected and retail sales were negative. We did come up from the worst levels on the day and the NASDAQ actually posted a slight gain. The S&P 500 also came back from its lows. The short term indicators here have curled back over to the downside. We do have one indicator that is pointing to buying before the Friday expiration. It is roughly projecting the S&P to close around 3950 by Friday afternoon. Anything is possible in this game. Perhaps I'll give the SPY March calls a chance with only two days left but we'll see. My track record on the short term trades is pretty poor. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures but did fall back from the best levels on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU was off 1/2, while GDX finished flat. Volume remains solid here. The gold shares fell back from early gains. I did sell the GDX March call trade but it wasn't a good job there. I should have dumped them early but did not. The management of this trade was terrible but I was lucky that it didn't end up a huge loss. I would have like to have held on to it for another day but took what I could get. The gain was 70%. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are overbought so perhaps it is due for a rest. Plenty of room to run on the weekly indicators though. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher again as this indicator has had a volatile last five days. The short term technical indicators here have turned back up. Seems like I'm still having a hard time figuring out the VIX. Just a few more economic reports this week but the main ones have already been digested. Oversold for the major averages but in declines they simply stay that way. Yesterdays price action just turned out to be an oversold bounce. Asia higher and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

A bounce showed up today as the Dow gained 336 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. Data from inflation came in where expected so their were no surprises. We had gotten pretty oversold on some of the techncial indicators so an up day was due. Where we go from here is the question. A one day wonder or perhaps the beginning of a meaningful bottom? Of course we won't know until some more time passes. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We'll have to see if we get any follow through buying tomorrow. Producer prices along with retail sales will be the early focus. Not exactly sure what to expect. Gold dropped $9 on the futures. Some decline for the precious metal was not out of the question considering that it's come so far so fast. The US dollar ended little changed and interest rates rose. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/4. Volume was average. Somehow I'm still holding on to the GDX March calls with only 3 days to go. Not completely short term overbought here yet and my target for GDX is 30 this week. Very risky to hold on though as a drop in the gold shares would wipe out whatever profit is still left in this trade. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have now rolled over. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it implies lower readings on the VIX and therefore higher stock prices going forward. Still above the 20 level though. One day doesn't make a trend but at least the market stopped going down for a day. Much of the gains came in the final hour and that's usually a bullish development. But tomorrow is another day. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Volatility is the name of the game here as various markets are having huge moves as they worry about threats to the US banking system. The Dow fell 90 points on very heavy volume. The Dow rallied hard in the overnight market and then couldn't hold on to the gains. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The McClellan oscillator is below minus 300. We are getting blown out to the downside. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. The NASDAQ did manage to post a gain so maybe there is some hope for the bulls. We'll get the CPI report tomorrow and that will certainly have an impact early on. Not sure what to expect there but if it comes in hot expect more selling. However a weaker print there could send us into an oversold bounce. Or some news could come out of nowhere to move things as we are in a headline driven market at the moment. Gold soared as the futures gained fifty bucks. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had huge drops in a flight to safety frenzy. The XAU jumped 6 1/3, while GDX was up by 1 7/8. Volume was incredibly strong. The potential positive RSI divergence for GDX was validated. Well at least technical analysis still works. My GDX March calls had their own March miracle as they now show an actual profit. Of course it took the second largest bank failure in US history to make that happen. Probably should have just sold them today but I'll wait on the inflation data tomorrow to figure out what to do. The short term technical indicators for GDX have now turned up and they do have room to go higher. Price and volume moving in tandem is a positive event. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and again finished well below its highest levels of the day. Getting short term overbought here but not there just yet. Well above the 20 level as volatility rules the markets for now. Not sure where the markets go from here but some kind of bounce is not out of the question. Markets know things that we don't and the price action in some of the instruments in the past couple of sessions is completely out of the ordinary. We can only wonder why for now. Caution is advised. Asia was mixed and Europe down to begin the week overseas. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

New troubles for the market as it now frets over a couple of California banks going under. The Dow fell 345 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. The headline number for the jobs report was higher than expected but the underlying statistics were not as robust as predicted. An early sell off was met with a rally attempt. However that failed as the FDIC came in to take over in the California bank debacle. Obviously the fear is that there are more failures to come. Heavy selling to the downside is not a positive sign unless it is the final flush. Not sure that's what occured today. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. It is now firmly below its 200 day moving average. The next area of support comes in at 3800. Gold rallied on fear today as the futures rose over $35. The US dollar was lower and interest rate yields plummeted. The gold shares initially jumped but then were sold off with the overall market. The XAU managed a gain of a point, while GDX added 1/2. Volume was heavy. The positive RSI divergence is still in place on the charts and would have been fulfilled today if the gold shares had managed to hold onto their gains. I do still have the GDX March call losing trade alive although I should have sold them this morning. Normally they would be worthless by now since they are far out of the money but the increase in volatility has given them life. Probably will hold on until Tuesdays inflation report at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped again today and closed above its 200 day moving average. However it did finish well off of the highs for the session. The short term indicators have moved up but are not yet completely overbought. Plenty of fear and uncertainty out there at the moment. Margin calls ongoing to be sure. The weekly indicators for the S&P have plenty of room to move lower, so I'm not sure how far down we have to go. Option expiration week on tap as well. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend and keep an eye on any new news developments too. Perhaps we'll look for a chance to play an oversold bounce in the S&P next week. Or not. We've still got the losing GDX call trade to book. Europe and Asia sold off into the weekend as the world markets try to figure out exactly what is going on. Basically it appears that a couple of banks made some losing bets and now have to face the music. The game treats all alike. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market got clobbered ahead of tomorrows employment report as the Dow fell 543 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is not a good sign for the bulls. It is as if the market knows ahead of time that the jobs numbers will not be favorable. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled back into oversold territory. The S&P is trying to hold on to its 200 day moving average. Stock markets have the feel of wanting to keep going lower here. The negative candlestick pattern on the S&P daily chart seems to be playing itself out. The lower summation index is telling the story. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold rallied a bit as the futures rose around $15. That couldn't get the gold shares going as both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses again. Volume was average. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The potential positive RSI divergence for the gold shares is still in place. So is my losing GDX March call trade. Probably dump it tomorrow unless we see some extraordinary upside in GDX. The gold shares followed the market lower today despite the rise in gold itself. I should have been out of this idea long ago. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX jumped today and closed above 20. The short term technical indicators here have turned up with a vengeance. Not sure what it means but volatility has returned for now. There is no good reason to be holding calls right now but here I am. Europe and Asia were mostly lower again last night and I'd expect more of the same to finish the week. We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report and close out the trading week tomorrow.

More Fedspeak but less market reaction as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. We didn't see any downside follow through from yesterdays debacle in the overall market and that's a plus. But we still have to at least get through Fridays jobs report. Whether or not we sell off here in a meaningful way will be determined on Friday is my guess. We'll simply wait and see. Gold was off a buck or so on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. One of the GDX hourly charts that I use along with the daily chart of GDX are both showing a potential positive divergence on the RSI indicator. That is the only reason that I'm still holding on to the losing GDX March call trade. Now GDX could move lower and negate that signal. Or we'll see the gold shares move higher in the near term and perhaps I can cut the loss for this trade to not be a complete wipe out. We'll know by Friday morning one way or the other. The trade is already dead in my mind so a couple of more days won't affect things that much. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. My thinking is tha tomorrow will be a waiting game for stocks with most likely a downside bias. We'll see. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Hawkish Fed comments sent the Dow reeling today as it lost 575 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. The Dow led the way down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over or are about to. The daily candlestick chart here shows a bearish pattern which indicates yet lower values to come. We'll get more talk from the Fed chairman tomorrow before Fridays jobs report. It appears that the short term rally that we just saw is over. Gold got crushed today as well as the futures lost $35. The US dollar soared while short term rates went up and the longer term ones held steady. The XAU fell over 5 points and GDX lost almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy. The short term indicators here have rolled over as well. My GDX March calls lost most of their value as I have held this trade for too long. Another mistake that could have and should have been avoided. The fundamental backdrop for gold is negative and I have no business trying the calls in that atmosphere. Yet I tried them anyway and even had a small profit at one point. We did see an oversold bounce for gold and the gold shares. That was my cue to exit the trade and I didn't. Mistakes are costly in the game and I just made another one. I'll sell and move on but the mental capital is always more important than the monetary capital. Two losing trades to start the new year is not where you want to be. Mentally I'm feeling negative as the GDX trade has blown up in my face. There's nobody to blame except myself. The highs are high and the lows are low in the trading game. The VIX was up today but remains short term oversold. It did manage to to stay below the 20 level. There's plenty of room to move up on the short term indicators. If that occurs we'll see quite a drop in the stock market. Hasn't happened yet and the VIX is still below its 50 day moving average so it's possible that today was just a one day decline. But a lot of the technical evidence is against that scenario. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. My guess is that we'll see selling around the globe tonight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was an up and then back down session as the Dow managed a gain of 40 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. It was a mixed market with the NASDAQ showing a small loss. It seems like we're just waiting on the Fed comments tomorrow and Wednesday. I doubt that they'll be bullish, so I'd expect some type of pause or pullback before we get Fridays employment numbers. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range so we could go either way here. If we do get a pullback my hope is that it doesn't turn into a rout. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 2 1/8, while GDX shed over 1/2. Volume was pretty light. Gold barely moved lower but the gold shares got sold. That is not a positive. My GDX March calls went from showing a profit to showing a loss. Once again this appears to be another mismanaged trade that should have been sold on Friday. Last week gold was moving and the gold shares weren't keeping pace. What more do you need to see really? Sure there's a chance that this trade will work out but it will now have to be held longer than the original thinking. Not sure that will be a good idea either. Less than 2 weeks to go before the March option expiration. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and is short term oversold. I would not be surprised to see the VIX higher tomorrow and stocks lower. Asia and Europe were genrally higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 387 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but may be trying to turn around here. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up sharply and is now above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have turned back up and have plenty of room to move higher. It appears that we have started some type of rally here but we'll have to see just how long it lasts and how far it goes. We will know for sure once the summation index turns back up. Hasn't happened yet but it does have a chance after the past two positive sessions. Gold rallied as well with the futures up twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower and so were interest rates. The XAU was up almost 2 points, while GDX added nearly 1/2. Volume was light here though as it looks more like sellers have disappeared vs. buyers showing up in force. We would have liked to see better gains in the gold shares considering the move in gold itself. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up and still have room to go. My GDX March calls are showing a small profit. The recent rise for GDX hasn't exactly been robust so I'm not exactly sure how much I trust in prices for the gold shares moving much higher from here in the near term. I'll have to decide what to do with this trade over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that goes along with a good day for stocks. The short term indicators here are getting oversold but not completely so. It was a good week for the bulls. Next week we've got the Fed chairman speaking for a couple of days plus the employment report. So we'll have to see if this upswing can continue. We'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend to try and figure out what to do next. Europe and Asia were higher as well to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way higher today as it was up 341 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. It was a one day reversal to the upside for stocks as we opened lower and finished higher. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. It did hold its 200 day moving average today. Still feels like a waiting game here. Gold was off $3 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX basically finished flat on the session. The volume was very light. The short term indicators for the gold shares have turned back up. For some reason I'm still holding on to the GDX March calls. They are showing a very small profit. Not sure what I'll do with them from here. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits the turnaround that we saw in stocks today. It closed below its 50 day moving average and the important 20 level. It does imply higher stock prices going forward but we'll have to see about that. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see if the market has any upside follow through as we close out the trading week tomorrow.

Another day of indecision as the Dow was up 5 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving down. The overall market was negative with the NASDAQ leading the way. The major stock indices remain short term oversold. The S&P 500 is trying to hold in at its 200 day moving average. However it has broken the longer term up trend line from October and can't seem to get any upside momentum. Short term oversold and staying that way is not a positive. Not sure where we go from here. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates higher. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 5/8. Volume was heavy to the upside which is a new development here. The short term indicators for GDX are now sloping upwards. My GDX March calls are somehow showing a small profit. I don't know why I'm still holding on to them but greed comes to mind. The strong volume today is a plus and I may be holding on to this trade for longer than I thought. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today which doesn't match with an overall lower market. The short term indicators are still mid-range here. Stocks have been moving sideways with a lower bias for the past week or so. Remaining short term oversold and I certainly don't have a good idea where we go next. I'm encouraged by the move higher in the gold shares today but that doesn't mean things can't simply turn around tomorrow. The game is never easy. Asia was higher and Europe generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.